Minny_Weather Posted November 30, 2018 Report Share Posted November 30, 2018 RPM goes very heavy on the dry slot, 2" here and only 5.7" in Norfolk. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted November 30, 2018 Report Share Posted November 30, 2018 Haha gfs went even more north Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted November 30, 2018 Report Share Posted November 30, 2018 Haha gfs went even more northIt's too late to pay attention to global maps anyway. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted November 30, 2018 Report Share Posted November 30, 2018 MPX. I’ll take it. The other tricky part of the forecast is determining the northernextent of the plowable snowfall. Several of the models indicateda northward shift with the snow, with the potential for a bandwith 1+ inch per hour rates setting up as far north as the TwinCities late Saturday afternoon. While it`s likely premature toentirely buy in on that scenario, do feel confident enough thatareas as far north as the Interstate 94 corridor should seeAdvisory-worthy accumulations. Will also have brisk northwestwinds bringing further visibility reductions, especially when thesnow is falling. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted November 30, 2018 Report Share Posted November 30, 2018 Still not sure where OAX is getting the notion that the heaviest snow will fall in the Northeastern part of the state tomorrow night. Looks like light-moderate snow will spread across the CWA with isolated heavy bands. I also think we should be placed in a low-end advisory here. 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted November 30, 2018 Report Share Posted November 30, 2018 I'd like to be in north central NE tonight and tomorrow. The Ainsworth to Norfolk area looks to be in the best spot to me. I'd be surprised if we don't see some 15"+ totals around there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted November 30, 2018 Report Share Posted November 30, 2018 I'd like to be in north central NE tonight and tomorrow. The Ainsworth to Norfolk area looks to be in the best spot to me. I'd be surprised if we don't see some 15"+ totals around there.Norfolk is iffy. If there's a dry slot that'll be the most 33 area. North Central is golden though. Edit: Oh wow that's a nice Easter egg. One of the mods changed the word "f*cked" to "33" in the censorship thingy. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted November 30, 2018 Report Share Posted November 30, 2018 HRRR has us sitting under a band of sleet forever. I guess that's more entertaining than rain? Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted November 30, 2018 Report Share Posted November 30, 2018 Around lunch time going to be interesting around here Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted December 1, 2018 Author Report Share Posted December 1, 2018 Good luck to all involved with this storm! Hoping we get a nice one over here at some point this year! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LincSnow Posted December 1, 2018 Report Share Posted December 1, 2018 Dean W from Channel 8 lincoln is calling for 2-4. Not sure it will reach those totals Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted December 1, 2018 Report Share Posted December 1, 2018 Dean W from Channel 8 lincoln is calling for 2-4. Not sure it will reach those totalsHe's always the most bullish met in the area. I think 2" is easily obtainable. I'm still not comfortable forecasting amounts and will continue to not be until tomorrow morning. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 1, 2018 Report Share Posted December 1, 2018 12k NAM bullish on accum's much further south in The Mitt. Other's were limiting to APX on north Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 1, 2018 Report Share Posted December 1, 2018 He's always the most bullish met in the area. I think 2" is easily obtainable. I'm still not comfortable forecasting amounts and will continue to not be until tomorrow morning. True nail-biter for OMA. Like you say, wait and see which way this goes during nowcast.. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted December 1, 2018 Report Share Posted December 1, 2018 There's gonna be some impressive banding/rates in the cold sector tomorrow over central/northeast Nebraska. Per HRRR, significant negative omega/intense lift perfectly collocated with the DGZ is going to lead to very impressive rates(perhaps approaching or exceeding 1.5-2"/hr??) and potentially slightly better ratios as well, depending on how efficiently flakes can form. http://soundings.pivotalweather.com/sounding_images/hrrr_2018120100_017_41.69--97.88.png 3 Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted December 1, 2018 Report Share Posted December 1, 2018 12k NAM bullish on accum's much further south in The Mitt. Other's were limiting to APX on north . 3k Nam is much less Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clintbeed1993 Posted December 1, 2018 Report Share Posted December 1, 2018 Just getting socked with rain right now. Really annoying when you know this could be a massive snowstorm and you're getting gully gushed with an inch or 2 of cold rain. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted December 1, 2018 Report Share Posted December 1, 2018 Hrrr did look good here for a while for early changeover but went all gfs on us Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted December 1, 2018 Report Share Posted December 1, 2018 Really quiet in here lol Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted December 1, 2018 Report Share Posted December 1, 2018 Really quiet in here lolHoping for a freak moment where cold shoots in. Lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted December 1, 2018 Report Share Posted December 1, 2018 Hrrr looks good then goes back again. We wont know up until hours before it Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted December 1, 2018 Report Share Posted December 1, 2018 Temps are a couple degrees below where they were supposed to be right now. That could be huge. I'm not sure what's up with HRRR but I think it's cuckoo for cocoa puffs. With a North wind and dynamic cooling from the precip taking place, I really don't see temps warming tomorrow.As for right now, steadily raining. I'd pay money for it to be cooler right now. 34.9°F. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted December 1, 2018 Report Share Posted December 1, 2018 Temps are a couple degrees below where they were supposed to be right now. That could be huge. I'm not sure what's up with HRRR but I think it's cuckoo for cocoa puffs. With a North wind and dynamic cooling from the precip taking place, I really don't see temps warming tomorrow.As for right now, steadily raining. I'd pay money for it to be cooler right now. 35°F.GFS has temps in the low 40s tomorrow, which is definitely overdone. Getting stuck around 34-35 with an abundance of precip seems more likely. Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted December 1, 2018 Report Share Posted December 1, 2018 GFS has temps in the low 40s tomorrow, which is definitely overdone. Getting stuck around 34-35 with an abundance of precip seems more likely.Yeah no way temps warm under these conditions. There's no way for warmer air to get here in the first place. We have a way higher likelihood of limping our way to the freezing mark than going the other way. We have the wind working in our favor so let's git er dun. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted December 1, 2018 Report Share Posted December 1, 2018 Nam vs hrrr at 13z tomorrow is a big difference, hrrr is a good 50+miles west with the low, Edit: next few frames looked closer to nam Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted December 1, 2018 Report Share Posted December 1, 2018 The nam has been pretty consistent the past two days except for that one run. Hmmm if it holds I won't be upset Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted December 1, 2018 Report Share Posted December 1, 2018 So odd the maps between pivotal and tropical are different on the same run. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 1, 2018 Report Share Posted December 1, 2018 . 3k Nam is much less Don't care. Leave me to my weenie runs 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 1, 2018 Report Share Posted December 1, 2018 So odd the maps between pivotal and tropical are different on the same run.tropical 10:1 snow maps tend to throw sleet in with the snow... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted December 1, 2018 Report Share Posted December 1, 2018 It is possible that an advisory may eventually be needed at some point for the area from Lincoln to Omaha, possibly Saturday night into Sunday, but no changes on the warning or advisory areas at this time. 2 Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 1, 2018 Report Share Posted December 1, 2018 In just about any other autumn, a hazards map as seen attm on Nov 30th would be a welcome sight for the oncoming winter. Lol that it's a disappointment over here after such a snowy November. I've totally forgotten "normal" Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted December 1, 2018 Report Share Posted December 1, 2018 HRRR is continuing to go full blown Korean war with the rain/snow line tomorrow in Lancaster County. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clintbeed1993 Posted December 1, 2018 Report Share Posted December 1, 2018 If anyone has latest short range model snowfall maps please post them, thank you. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted December 1, 2018 Report Share Posted December 1, 2018 It says 38 here but that wind is starting to bite Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted December 1, 2018 Report Share Posted December 1, 2018 Welp I jinxed myself by talking about how good temps are here cuz now the temp has risen. ****. 37.4*F. I'm hoping it falls back down when the wind goes from Easterly to NE. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 1, 2018 Report Share Posted December 1, 2018 Enjoy the 33 and rain. Gotta love it 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted December 1, 2018 Report Share Posted December 1, 2018 The HRRR is going ape with the snow in Douglas county here. It literally jumped south. All we need now is half a counties worth of easterly movement. Also, the HRRR has wind gusts of 50-60 MPH as the band is moving through, heck, maybe even 60-65 MPH gusts. Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted December 1, 2018 Report Share Posted December 1, 2018 The HRRR is going ape s**t with the snow in Douglas county here. It literally jumped south. All we need now is half a counties worth of easterly movement. Also, the HRRR has wind gusts of 50-60 MPH as the band is moving through, heck, maybe even 60-65 MPH gusts.Describing Lancaster County on the models over the past few days. The rain/snow line has been maybe 20 miles away from me but still in the county. That's within the margin of error still by a ton. Though I'm saying at this rate thermals aren't looking too hot. Maybe better in Douglas County. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted December 1, 2018 Report Share Posted December 1, 2018 So what's its worth radar app showing a change over in Iowa. Nothing north and west yet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted December 1, 2018 Report Share Posted December 1, 2018 And holy hell that is a change in the hrrr hot dam Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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