January 2019 Observations and Discussion

[FV-Mike]

Anyone see the clipper for Friday. kinda looks good. 

[Niko]

Currently at 4F w blustery conditions. Lows dipping tanite between -5 to -10F.

[Niko]

Dont miss it folks..starts at 10:34pm...just make sure you are bundled up.

 

https://www.space.com/43062-super-blood-moon-2019-last-until-2021.html

[gabel23]

Dont miss it folks..starts at 10:34pm...just make sure you are bundled up.

 

https://www.space.com/43062-super-blood-moon-2019-last-until-2021.html

Clouds are going to obscure things here in Nebraska; enjoy everyone else!

[Niko]

Clouds are going to obscure things here in Nebraska; enjoy everyone else!

Bummer......that can be annoying. Luckily here, skies are crystal clear.

[gabel23]

Bummer......that can be annoying. Luckily here, skies are crystal clear.

Hopefully you have a nice snow pack and cold winter chill to enjoy! I love these celestial events; they are so amazing! This is by far most enjoyable thing to teach, weather of course is number 1!

[Niko]

Current temp at 0F. BRRRR!

[jaster220]

High of 10F under full sun today! Same as our previous coldest low temp way back...when? So many weeks ago I don't remember, lol

[jaster220]

Went for a short drive earlier to experience the nice snowpack and I must tell ya, the main roads are a mess. I know salt cannot work in frigid temps, unfortunately, so drivers out there keep extra distance from vehicles ahead of ya. Nice huge piles from spots as I was driving around. Finally looks like January.

 

U city types

 

Went for a LOOOONNNGG drive across the countryside of SWMI this afternoon to soak in the absolutely gorgeous sunshine, deep azure blue arctic skies, and blinding white deep snow cover. Stellar mid-winter day and best such "day after" conditions since the final storm of March 2016. At least in the wx dept, all is right again in this part of The Mitt. So great to see peeps out enjoying their snowmobiles and blowing out their long driveways. There was considerable drifting in the open areas resulting in some of my favorite storm effects. A common theme actually between this storm and it's LRC counterpart back in Nov. This storm so lifted my mood after 49 days of the "winterless blues".

 

[Niko]

U city types

 

Went for a LOOOONNNGG drive across the countryside of SWMI this afternoon to soak in the absolutely gorgeous sunshine, deep azure blue arctic skies, and blinding white deep snow cover. Stellar mid-winter day and best such "day after" conditions since the final storm of March 2016. At least in the wx dept, all is right again in this part of The Mitt. So great to see peeps out enjoying their snowmobiles and blowing out their long driveways. There was considerable drifting in the open areas resulting in some of my favorite storm effects. A common theme actually between this storm and it's LRC counterpart back in Nov. This storm so lifted my mood after 49 days of the "winterless blues".

 

Screenshot_2019-01-20 azure blue - Google Search.png

 

I was experiencing a ground blizzard today. It was awesome.

[jaster220]

 

I was experiencing a ground blizzard today. It was awesome.

 

Marshall had some of that last night. Yeah, it was awesome! Can't wait til we get some more.

 

Kzoo radio dude was saying outlying locales could hit -20F tonight!  Brrrr!

 

NAM map shows why. Optimal radiational cooling as the HP is centered over (Marshall?) at about the coldest hour of readings for this time of year:

 

[Niko]

Marshall had some of that last night. Yeah, it was awesome! Can't wait til we get some more.

 

Kzoo radio dude was saying outlying locales could hit -20F tonight!  Brrrr!

 

NAM map shows why. Optimal radiational cooling as the HP is centered over (Marshall?) at about the coldest hour of readings for this time of year:

 

I have a shot of getting as low as -10F. Definitely records are being broken tanite.

[jaster220]

Baro at 30.37" hg and steadily rising. 12k NAM has me peaking at an unusually high 30.62" at 13z tomorrow morning. Be interesting to see if I indeed hit that number. Fwiw, HRRR is 2mb lower with the HP at that hour

 

Current airport temp = 0F

[Niko]

Current temps at -3F. Bitterly cold evening as lows will bottom out near -10F or slightly even colder.

[SE Wisconsin]

Stepping outside from time-to-time to view the lunar eclipse.  Temps near zero and mostly clear skies.  Really beautiful! 

[Minny_Weather]

Of course we have clouds and flurries out here when the total lunar eclipse is going on. Sigh. 11.8°F.

[Madtown]

The cold moon

[Tom]

Not long ago, I had some light LES swing through the area and lay down a dusting from the residual effects of the lake plume that developed.  Temps have risen to +7F.  Looks like a meso low is forming offshore.  It's going to be another cold January day with ample sunshine.

 

This is a 7-day that looks like mid/late January...

 

 

[Tom]

Unfortunately, my forecast for a "bomb potential" this week isn't panning out the way I had envisioned it would.  The separation of energy which happens with our early week system and the gulf energy is the problem.  Looking at the animation below you can see this clearly...instead, the Gulf energy rides up along the EC and turns into a strong E Canada system.  This would have been a bigger storm if all the energy came out in one piece but mother nature said "not this time"...so, here we are, heading into the 3rd week of January, during the "Heart of Winter" when the seasons characteristics really stand out across the CONUS.  What lies ahead???  Clipper Parade??  Any big storms on the horizon???

 

Following our early week system our pattern turns into a NW Flow with a stout -EPO pattern ushering in the coldest air of the season for many and along with the "Cross Polar Flow" there are a couple clippers targeting anyone from the MW and points North & East into the GL's through the end of the month.

 

Last nights 00z Euro showed a decent clipper (Fri/Sat) targeting IA/IL into IN/OH laying down a few inches of snow.  Another more interesting clipper diving down the lee ward side of the Rockies and then is poised to slow/dig across somewhere in the MW/GL's region 1-2 days later (27th-29th) which may end up being a bigger deal.  The pattern remains active across the northern half of our sub, but then as we flip the calendar into Feb we see a much different overall zonal Flow....but where does it warm and who remains cold is the question???  This is where the models have now busted big time where they were stead fast at parking a trough in the East but now the -PNA is loudly being advertised as we open Feb.  A more La Nina type pattern sets up across the CONUS and I believe we will see an active PAC wave train traversing our Sub Forum targeting the northern half of Sub with wintry systems and leaving the southern half in an overall AN temp regime.  Thankfully, the saving grace for snow enthusiasts will be the blocking pattern setting up shop that all the models remain steady "seeding" cold across the northern/central CONUS.  IMO, there's going to be a big battle zone across the heartland and many "nervous nellies" on here.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[westMJim]

With clear skies it it a very cold AM here at my house I take readings with 2 sensors and today the "cold spot" is at -12.4° and the other spot is at -9.4° at the airport the latest reading there was -8° And here at my house I have 3" of snow on the ground at this time. As for were Grand Rapids now stands for the month and winter season for snow fall. For January GR is now at 4.2" that is still well below average for this date into January by 10.0" and since December 1st the total snow fall is now at just 7.4" and that is -28.4" where GR should be at this date. And for the winter season the total is now at 12.8" and that is -21.8" below average for this date. As for temperatures even with the cold GR is still at +3.2 for the month yet.

[Niko]

Sunny skies and bitter cold w temps at -5F.

[Minny_Weather]

Been getting pixie dust flakes at a pretty decent clip this morning. There's a dusting on my balcony. Enough on the parking lot for it to blow around. Funny thing is it's not showing up on radar. 14.4*F.

[Tom]

I'm getting another surprise bout of light LES at the moment.  The sun is out with the snow flying from the edge of the lake band coming ashore.  It is absolutely picturess with the sun out and snow falling...it's like a glitter effect...very peaceful with a slight wind out of the SE, current temp of 10F.  

[Niko]

Temps are warming ever so slightly. Currently at 3F w deep blue skies along w a nice snowpack.

[Stacsh]

This next storm looks like a bust (mixed precip/rain over an inch or so of snow, blah).  Excited for the Arctic front on Thursday/Friday though.  I've seen blizzard like conditions with this kind of set up.  Curious to see how much moisture can get into the LES.

[Tom]

The E PAC is starting to really torch of late...ENSO 1.2 is climbing high, the -PNA signal is for real....

 

 

[Tom]

12z GFS flashing a big time Clipper late this weekend into early next week.  This is a pattern favorable for digging/pivoting storm systems.

[CentralNebWeather]

12z GFS flashing a big time Clipper late this weekend into early next week.  This is a pattern favorable for digging/pivoting storm systems.

What is interesting is this clipper is much farther west on the 12Z Canadian.

[Niko]

NOAA:

 

Although the latest Euro has trended farther
south with the track and is almost too far south, and many GFS
ensemble members provide support to the Euro solution.

 

Looks very interesting.

[Tony]

12z GFS flashing a big time Clipper late this weekend into early next week.  This is a pattern favorable for digging/pivoting storm systems.

Too bad it will change a hundred times between now and then but at least something to track

[Tom]

Too bad it will change a hundred times between now and then but at least something to track

True, but the ensemble support is there from both the EPS/GEFS...hopefully it turns out to be a large scale clipper system like shown today instead of a smaller 50-100 mile wide band of snow.

[Tom]

12z GEFS also showing better support for a clipper this Fri/Sat tracking across the MW/Lower Lakes region.  Maybe 1-4"???

[jaster220]

Baro at 30.37" hg and steadily rising. 12k NAM has me peaking at an unusually high 30.62" at 13z tomorrow morning. Be interesting to see if I indeed hit that number. Fwiw, HRRR is 2mb lower with the HP at that hour

 

Current airport temp = 0F

 

My ASOS in Marshall reads about 1 deg. warm (while my car thermo reads 1 deg. cold). 

 

I'm confident we had -20F in Marshall this morning. Missed the HRRR forecast of 30.62" hg tho by 5

 

The air really stung stepping out this morning. Fortunately my car was in the garage and wasn't a problem starting up.

 

[james1976]

12z GEFS also showing better support for a clipper this Fri/Sat tracking across the MW/Lower Lakes region. Maybe 1-4"???

I believe that would be a separate system before the larger one you mentioned above. I think DMX mentioned this. Definite clipper parade.

[jaster220]

The E PAC is starting to really torch of late...ENSO 1.2 is climbing high, the -PNA signal is for real....

 

 

 

Repeats the cycle post-Nov 26 storm as mentioned earlier. This LRC is very repeatable if nothing else

[jaster220]

What is interesting is this clipper is much farther west on the 12Z Canadian.

 

Too bad it will change a hundred times between now and then but at least something to track

 

I believe that would be a separate system before the larger one you mentioned above. I think DMX mentioned this. Definite clipper parade.

 

Let the Clipper madness begin 

 

For the record, I don't think I've ever seen a map show so much from a diving Clipper as what the GFS shows above in Tom's post. Calling BS from the GFS on that 

[Niko]

Let the Clipper madness begin 

 

For the record, I don't think I've ever seen a map show so much from a diving Clipper as what the GFS shows above in Tom's post. Calling BS from the GFS on that 

I wont forget my clipper parade for SEMI last year...each one produce 5"+.

[Hawkeye]

The 12z GFS rains on Iowa three times over the next 16 days.

[james1976]

Big dog around the 1st has disappeared.

[Tom]

Let the Clipper madness begin

 

For the record, I don't think I've ever seen a map show so much from a diving Clipper as what the GFS shows above in Tom's post. Calling BS from the GFS on that

12z Euro digs it even farther S than the GFS. This one has my attn.