January 2019 Observations and Discussion

[Grizzcoat]

8.7" here as well. 5.5" of it came last Saturday. Glad we got that. Probably will be the "biggie" of season the way things are going.

[hlcater]

Euro active through FH240, at which it has a pretty massive dump of extreme cold into the midwest and plains. Core of 850mb airmass centered Minnesota displaying -37* C. -20*C extends to northern Mississippi. Not sure I buy that.

[Grizzcoat]

Euro has another hit for many of the same areas as this upcoming storm--- Tuesday next week HR 108 - 114

[Tom]

What an exciting pattern we are locked into for the foreseeable future as systems are lining up and this sub will be quite active through the remainder of this month and Feb (which looks to be much more impactful than this month as a whole).  Our next focus dials in on a system early next week that is poised to target the same areas in the MW/GL's once again.  Although, there is some concern that this storm cuts right over Chicago and brings a rain/snow mix for this area and places S/SE of here.  Might need to fire up a storm thread for this one later this morning.

 

Once we get past this system, a definitive -NAO block develops along with a -AO/-EPO will allow a unique NW Flow couple with strong and active PAC waves coming up and over the NE PAC ridge and driving S/SE into SW Canada and pivoting and quite possibly strengthening into hybrid clippers into the MW/GL's region over the Week 1-2 period.  Target dates for a Clipper parade are between (25th-30th), then our attention will be centering towards a possible big CO Low out towards the end of the month.  This particular system may be one big CO Low that closes out the month and opens Feb...GHD-III????

 

 

Here were the JMA Weeklies Week 2-4 and basically show we are socked into Winter through at least the next 4 weeks (end of run).....

[GDR]

[Niko]

Current temp at 28 w cloudy skies. Roads are slippery w a dusting around.

[Hawkeye]

The next 10 days on the euro WOW

 

The GFS has been backing off the snow in the extended, but last night's euro dumps probably a 2-ft bullseye on eastern Iowa.  It brought decent snow back next Tuesday, then has a couple potent clippers.

[james1976]

Love the way the pattern is evolving. I hope to add a lot to my 9.1" I have received so far this season!

[westMJim]

Congrats to areas to the west and south west of Lake Michigan that looks to get much more snow then here in the Grand Rapids metro area. Here last night I recorded 0.3" of snow fall and there is a trace of snow now on the driveway, road and the grass with a temp of 27.7° and cloudy skies, GRR is calling for around 1 to 2" for this system here with more to the south of town. The of course cold but with a north wind there will be no lake effect here in GR. For Tuesdays system there could be some rain mixed in here so we will have to see how that  one plays out. Of course there could be a better chance of some Lake effect on this side of the lake after that one pulls out. One item that I will add for the west side of the lake on your lake effect snow fall is that it helps if you have some added lift in the form of some hills. Here in Michigan there are some hills (not much) but still some 150 to 200 feet helps in the case of lake effect. 

[Stacsh]

Congrats to areas to the west and south west of Lake Michigan that looks to get much more snow then here in the Grand Rapids metro area. Here last night I recorded 0.3" of snow fall and there is a trace of snow now on the driveway, road and the grass with a temp of 27.7° and cloudy skies, GRR is calling for around 1 to 2" for this system here with more to the south of town. The of course cold but with a north wind there will be no lake effect here in GR. For Tuesdays system there could be some rain mixed in here so we will have to see how that one plays out. Of course there could be a better chance of some Lake effect on this side of the lake after that one pulls out. One item that I will add for the west side of the lake on your lake effect snow fall is that it helps if you have some added lift in the form of some hills. Here in Michigan there are some hills (not much) but still some 150 to 200 feet helps in the case of lake effect.

 

The snow drought looks to continue after a couple days of promising model runs. Next system may be weaker and warm. After that it’s clippers and LES which is where most of our snow comes from. Either way without a big snow event we are looking a historic low snowfall for the winter.

[snowman1]

For the Tuesday system, GFS seems to be cutting harder north with each run and keeping it too warm here in IL. More of an Iowa/Wisco special. Anybody give a brief mention of how that compares to the Euro?

[Niko]

Each storm gets weaker as it approaches time. It looks strong a few days b4 and when it comes closer to the event, it falls apart and or brings in warmer air. Its a crappy Winter for some, i.e, SEMI for starters.

[Niko]

Currently 30F w cloudy skies. A dusting fell for total snowfall. What else is new this Winter. Cant even get a decent d**n snowfall. Ok, I will stop here cuz I am now getting pissed off.

[Nelson]

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF0.5_0z/f120.gif

[CentralNebWeather]

I am liking the possibilities of the storm next Tuesday for Nebraska.  12Z Icon is good, and so is the GFS.  Would love to score a few inches or more from it.

[james1976]

Looks like I might get a lil shot of snow Sunday. That will prolly amount to more than what I will get with this current system. Tuesday looks interesting for now anyway.

[westMJim]

The snow drought looks to continue after a couple days of promising model runs. Next system may be weaker and warm. After that it’s clippers and LES which is where most of our snow comes from. Either way without a big snow event we are looking a historic low snowfall for the winter.

That is true while Grand Rapids all time record low for snow fall will be safe (a reported 20" in the winter of 1905/06) and several very old records in 1906/07 (30") Just to get to the more modern low snow fall seasons(1948/48) Grand Rapids would have to get 20.7" of snow the rest of this season and for more recent low snow fall winter like 2011/12 we would need 32.2" and to reach the 30 year average we would need 56.2" 

[hlcater]

GFS/CMC track the Tuesday low right through Iowa. Barf.

[Stormhunter87]

Nice pattern by the looks of it, but I'll believe it when I see it. The storm on the 27th and then the 31st has me intrigued. They look like inverted troughs which are always good here.

[Money]

Euro is cold

[St Paul Storm]

The frozen grip of death. Dang.

[Niko]

Currently at 29F w cloudy skies. Smells like snow outside.

[Snowshoe]

Just hope i have a decent snow cover or there will be some frozen pipes and septics.

 

The frozen grip of death. Dang.

[CentralNebWeather]

The frozen grip of death. Dang.

Even hits Nebraska.

[Minny_Weather]

Sun tried to come out for a bit earlier here in Fargo but now it's tucked back in nicely. It's so cold here that I was outside for 30 seconds and the tears in my eyes froze. -5*F. Wind chill -26*F.

[Niko]

Sun tried to come out for a bit earlier here in Fargo but now it's tucked back in nicely. It's so cold here that I was outside for 30 seconds and the tears in my eyes froze. -5*F. Wind chill -26*F.

Now that is cold!! Dang!

[St Paul Storm]

Just hope i have a decent snow cover or there will be some frozen pipes and septics.

That’s actually a really good point I hadn’t considered. Better hope the system early next week pans out.

[St Paul Storm]

MSP will set a new latest date without a sub zero temp if we don’t drop below 0F before midnight. Low tonight is forecasted to be 0F. Current temp 8F with a WC of -2F. Feels a lot colder than that.

[hlcater]

That system still looks like a rainer for E IA as all models(except the Euro) bring the low right through the state. With an amply cold airmass to tap into, areas immediately north of the low see snow. So CR/IC would probably be okay if the sfc low tracked through SE IA and into N IL.

[CentralNebWeather]

18z GFS. Yes please. Glacier across the nation.

[Stormhunter87]

Wow that storm in February looks nuts.

[gimmesnow]

That system still looks like a rainer for E IA as all models(except the Euro) bring the low right through the state. With an amply cold airmass to tap into, areas immediately north of the low see snow. So CR/IC would probably be okay if the sfc low tracked through SE IA and into N IL.

 

Don't get discouraged, the models had all of this showing up as rain a while ago. I think they are all running a little warm this year. IIRC GFS had this has a big rain event a week or so ago.

[Andie]

The frozen grip of death. Dang.

 

Is that map indicating Sun the 27th will be freakin cold in Texas ???

[Hawkeye]

Brutal PV cold followed by a forum-wide biggie around GHD/Superbowl again?  Sign me up.

[Stormhunter87]

So oax saying next storm is going to fly through not be much, but the storm Thursday has their attention based on the Euro. Interesting.

[Money]

-60 degree wind chills across much of IA/MN etc

 

http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=sfctapp&rh=2019011818&fh=252&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

[Stormhunter87]

-60 degree wind chills across much of IA/MN etc

 

http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=sfctapp&rh=2019011818&fh=252&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

Holy cow that's some cold air.

[St Paul Storm]

Is that map indicating Sun the 27th will be freakin cold in Texas ???

Well, depends on what you consider to be freakin cold. Freakin cold in TX isn’t freakin cold in MN. But yes. It looks like it might be pretty cold in the middle of the country for sure. Winter looks like it’s finally showing up.

[Grizzcoat]

-60 degree wind chills across much of IA/MN etc

 

http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=sfctapp&rh=2019011818&fh=252&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

looks like I will have a chance to test my -35F sleeping bag....

[Andie]

Well, depends on what you consider to be freakin cold. Freakin cold in TX isn’t freakin cold in MN. But yes. It looks like it might be pretty cold in the middle of the country for sure. Winter looks like it’s finally showing up.

True. We're thin blooded from those 100-110* summer days with high humidity.

 

But cold for us usually begins in the 30's. By the time it hits freezing we're like dang!

What usually gets us is wind chill. This is a windy state.

 

I have to travel to Az. next week and I'm trying to think of what kind coat to take.