January 2019 Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[kokaneekidz]

I don't know what it is then. Sorry guys and gals...

 

 

Nice little finger of a tenth of an inch from Kingston back towards Edmonds expanding out from there to encompass the Metro area. This would be nothing back in the 90's as it happened after every other front in the winter but now it is the deal since it is all we have to grasp onto anymore. A sad state of affairs in the pacnw......

[MossMan]

Yeah I would live up in your area. I see there is a place (town?) called Silverton east of Granite Falls. I might feel at home out there...

 

Commuting isn't a huge deal for me, my current commute is almost an hour.

I haven’t been out past Granite Falls (or even to Granite) for a long time but that area does have a bit of a reputation of being very “back woods” with lots of drug activity...but that might not be the case anymore. I really liked the Big Lake and Lake Cavanugh area...very much has the feel like where we live now but just further east...but doesn’t have that sketchy feel about it like Granite does (or did)

We almost put this place below under contract last January...but my wife wasn’t a huge fan of the layout of the house and also it would have taken her 25 minutes to get to I-5. I loved the property, has 21 acres.

https://www.redfin.com/WA/Mt-Vernon/25715-Lake-Cavanaugh-Rd-98274/home/18791039?utm_source=ios_share&utm_medium=share&utm_campaign=copy_link&utm_nooverride=1&utm_content=link

[TT-SEA]

I just noticed that the 12Z ECMWF was quite a bit weaker with the wind event for tonight compared to the 00Z run.    Might be a good sign to see it backing off a little as the event approaches.

 

Here was the 00Z run for the 10 p.m - 4 a.m. period and the 4 - 10 a.m. period:

 

 

 

 

 

And the new 12Z run:

 

 

[Phil]

That’s an ugly arse jet on the 12z euro.

 

Can kiss January goodbye west of the Mississippi if that s**t verifies.

[MossMan]

I just noticed that the 12Z ECMWF was quite a bit weaker with the wind event for tonight compared to the 00Z run. Might be a good sign to see it backing off a little as the event approaches.

 

Here was the 00Z run for the 10 p.m - 4 a.m. period and the 4 - 10 a.m. period:

 

 

 

 

 

And the new 12Z run:

 

 

Definitely a non event up my way.

[MossMan]

Cliff Mass calling it the biggest windstorm of the season...meanwhile NWS Seattle only has Wind Advisories up. This doesn’t look anything like what slammed us before Christmas...Hmmmm.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I haven’t been out past Granite Falls (or even to Granite) for a long time but that area does have a bit of a reputation of being very “back woods” with lots of drug activity...but that might not be the case anymore. I really liked the Big Lake and Lake Cavanugh area...very much has the feel like where we live now but just further east...but doesn’t have that sketchy feel about it like Granite does (or did)

We almost put this place below under contract last January...but my wife wasn’t a huge fan of the layout of the house and also it would have taken her 25 minutes to get to I-5. I loved the property, has 21 acres.

https://www.redfin.com/WA/Mt-Vernon/25715-Lake-Cavanaugh-Rd-98274/home/18791039?utm_source=ios_share&utm_medium=share&utm_campaign=copy_link&utm_nooverride=1&utm_content=link

 

Nice place. Probably a little above my price range, but I could probably afford something with 5-10 acres and a similar house in that area. 

 

Our company has been doing a lot of contract work with the state of Washington, and I've let them know if we every expand into the state I would be interested. 

 

I am pretty happy with where I am now though I do not have the time I would like to have to work on the property so that is one of my frustrations. Like today. My wife is coming off back to back doubles, so I have to watch the baby all day. That tends to be the story of my weekends, which is fine, but it seems like nothing ever gets done around here. Especially this time of year, when it is dark by the time I get home from work during the week. Combined with my travel schedule which ends up taking me out of town on average of about 5-7 days a month. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

I'm surprised by the Nws this is a classic wind storm trajectory for the sound.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I'm probably going to take a look at this home in a couple weeks when I am back out in Oklahoma. 

 

https://www.zillow.com/homes/for_sale/Bartlesville-OK/78490755_zpid/16899_rid/globalrelevanceex_sort/36.750628,-95.952036,36.725832,-95.982935_rect/14_zm/?fbclid=IwAR3uU1jQbWmHkXM7R4qKzrTFKpXqCeHPNKt20Zeg4eQq8j6jo3znZoo3OMg

[Andrew.]

I'm probably going to take a look at this home in a couple weeks when I am back out in Oklahoma. 

 

https://www.zillow.com/homes/for_sale/Bartlesville-OK/78490755_zpid/16899_rid/globalrelevanceex_sort/36.750628,-95.952036,36.725832,-95.982935_rect/14_zm/?fbclid=IwAR3uU1jQbWmHkXM7R4qKzrTFKpXqCeHPNKt20Zeg4eQq8j6jo3znZoo3OMg

Wow beautiful home for the price

[Phil]

I'm probably going to take a look at this home in a couple weeks when I am back out in Oklahoma.

 

https://www.zillow.com/homes/for_sale/Bartlesville-OK/78490755_zpid/16899_rid/globalrelevanceex_sort/36.750628,-95.952036,36.725832,-95.982935_rect/14_zm/?fbclid=IwAR3uU1jQbWmHkXM7R4qKzrTFKpXqCeHPNKt20Zeg4eQq8j6jo3znZoo3OMg

FLAT.

 

Would drive me insane. Don’t need mountains necessarily but the Plains just creep me out.

 

Price is amazing, though.

[TT-SEA]

I'm probably going to take a look at this home in a couple weeks when I am back out in Oklahoma. 

 

https://www.zillow.com/homes/for_sale/Bartlesville-OK/78490755_zpid/16899_rid/globalrelevanceex_sort/36.750628,-95.952036,36.725832,-95.982935_rect/14_zm/?fbclid=IwAR3uU1jQbWmHkXM7R4qKzrTFKpXqCeHPNKt20Zeg4eQq8j6jo3znZoo3OMg

 

 

That is NOT rural.   

 

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

I'm surprised by the Nws this is a classic wind storm trajectory for the sound.

Jay Albrecht‏ @AlbrechtJay 30m30 minutes ago

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Yep! Up there this one looks much less of an issue. I'm watching the area from San Fran to Portland OR as prime damage territory with this one with the storm decaying nicely as it moves northward. Still a pretty windy night here in Seattle!

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[umadbro]

Just became heavily fogged in the last 30 minutes in newberg,

[SilverFallsAndrew]

That is NOT rural.   

 

 

No. Bartlesville has about 35,000 people. Tulsa is 40 miles south, there are really no towns of any size in any other direction from it. I think overall it is the nicest town in Oklahoma. One of the corporate headquarters of Conocco-Phillips so a little more affluent and well educated than other areas in Oklahoma. 

 

In February 2011 they hit an all-time record low of -27 and then were in the 80s the next week. 

 

https://www.wunderground.com/history/monthly/us/ok/bartlesville/KBVO/date/2011-2

[Deweydog]

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=OTl_hnlewAY

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I wish our climate was a little closer to theirs in terms of variability. These were the temps when I was out there in December 2016.

 

15th: 36/15

16th: 53/35

17th: 51/8

18th: 17/0

19th: 34/0

20th: 48/14

21st: 50/17

 

I wasn't there for it, but in December 2008 they had a 72/14 day followed by a 14/8 day. 

[Phil]

That is NOT rural.

 

Lol, that’s urban af. Those buildings are much larger than anything within at least 7 miles of here, and this is the nation’s capital. And there are essentially no trees in that picture that weren’t planted by humans. I’m sort of cloistered off from the city here, but still.

[GHweatherChris]

That is NOT rural.

 

He never said it was....

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Lol, that’s urban af. Those buildings are much larger than anything within at least 7 miles of here, and this is the nation’s capital. And there are almost no trees in that picture. I’m sort of cloistered off from the city here, but still.

 

It is the 2nd corporate headquarters of Conocco-Phillips. So its downtown is largely made up of the corporate office buildings. Also the tallish building to the right is the only "skyscraper" Frank Lloyd Wright ever designed. It is not a big town and if you look on google earth you will see the town has a large green space through the center of it where the Caney River flood plain is. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

He never said it was....

 

I think his comment was in relation to me saying I wouldn't want to live within an hour of Seattle. I grew up on a farm and currently live in a very rural area, but I have lived in towns before (Including the one pictured for several years.). 

 

Under the right conditions I would probably even live in a city like Tulsa, which has a population of around 400K. My issue with Seattle and Portland to a lesser extent are related more to the cost of living, traffic, culture/values, and cost of living. I would prefer more rural locales, but places like the Tulsa Hills provide an incredible standard of living at dirt cheap (by comparison) costs of living, so I would consider it if the opportunity arose. 

[Phil]

Those Oklahoma thunderstorms are probably the strongest of anywhere on the planet, though. So that’s a definitely a plus if you hate boring weather. ️

[GHweatherChris]

I think his comment was in relation to me saying I wouldn't want to live within an hour of Seattle. I grew up on a farm and currently live in a very rural area, but I have lived in towns before (Including the one pictured for several years.).

 

Under the right conditions I would probably even live in a city like Tulsa, which has a population of around 400K. My issue with Seattle and Portland to a lesser extent are related more to the cost of living, traffic, culture/values, and cost of living. I would prefer more rural locales, but places like the Tulsa Hills provide an incredible standard of living at dirt cheap (by comparison) costs of living, so I would consider it if the opportunity arose.

Ahh, that makes sense.

[GHweatherChris]

I think many on here will at least see snowflakes in the air at some point before tomorrow night, I am keeping an eye on the mesoscale analysis for upper air temps as the storm moves north.

[Phil]

I think his comment was in relation to me saying I wouldn't want to live within an hour of Seattle. I grew up on a farm and currently live in a very rural area, but I have lived in towns before (Including the one pictured for several years.).

 

Under the right conditions I would probably even live in a city like Tulsa, which has a population of around 400K. My issue with Seattle and Portland to a lesser extent are related more to the cost of living, traffic, culture/values, and cost of living. I would prefer more rural locales, but places like the Tulsa Hills provide an incredible standard of living at dirt cheap (by comparison) costs of living, so I would consider it if the opportunity arose.

What type of work do you do? I suppose that would determine your degree of freedom to relocate.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Those Oklahoma thunderstorms are probably the strongest of anywhere on the planet, though. So that’s a definitely a plus if you hate boring weather. ️

 

Both Bartlesville and Tulsa average over 40" of precip annually so it is much greener there April-October than most people probably realize when they think of Oklahoma. In that sense it is much different than places further west like Oklahoma City. The country out  in NE Oklahoma is also a little more hilly (Though still pretty flat.). You have to go down to SE Oklahoma for some real "mountains" which are similar in height and relief to the Willapa Hills in SW Washington. But once you get down there the humidity in the summer is off the charts and there is not much in the way of winter weather. 

 

Eastern Oklahoma also has a ton of large reservoirs and almost every farm has at least one pond. The first time I ever flew into Tulsa I was shocked by how much water was visible in all directions. 

[TT-SEA]

Warmth for most of the country and Alaska continues in the long range on the 12Z EPS with the storm track pointed at CA.

 

[Jesse]

No ten day rain and snow maps from the Euro!?

[TT-SEA]

No ten day rain and snow maps from the Euro!?

 

 

[umadbro]

Its crazy how some people will argue about how wrong Andrew is. Its not like he lived there or visits it several times a year. But no. He's wrong.

[Blizzard777]

I just noticed that the 12Z ECMWF was quite a bit weaker with the wind event for tonight compared to the 00Z run.    Might be a good sign to see it backing off a little as the event approaches.

 

Here was the 00Z run for the 10 p.m - 4 a.m. period and the 4 - 10 a.m. period:

 

 

 

 

 

And the new 12Z run:

 

 

I wouldn’t mind it downgrading at least up north at home. My attention is currently with family down here in PDX

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Warmth for most of the country and Alaska continues in the long range on the 12Z EPS with the storm track pointed at CA.

 

 

Most GFS runs have kept Alaska cold.

[Deweydog]

I have never stepped foot in Oklahoma. It was awful.

[Jesse]

[Jesse]

At the ferry terminal in Port Townsend about to board. The Olympics and Cascades sure look beautiful from here.

 

[Phil]

Warmth for most of the country and Alaska continues in the long range on the 12Z EPS with the storm track pointed at CA.

 

However, notice the trend during this period. The NPAC jet begins retracting, and the polar block begins to establish itself.

 

 

Obviously this has a long way to go, but the retracting jet is the conduit to getting Arctic air back into North America and possibly to within striking distance of the PNW.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

At the ferry terminal in Port Townsend about to board. The Olympics and Cascades sure look beautiful from here.

 

BF8B1105-5BA3-4A3D-B365-D908CBF02E8A.jpeg

 

Pt Townsend is nice. Went there for the first time last summer. That park with the old army barracks is pretty cool!

[TigerWoodsLibido]

However, notice the trend during this period. The NPAC jet begins retracting, and the polar block begins to establish itself.

 

 

Obviously this has a long way to go, but the retracting jet is the conduit to getting Arctic air back into North America and possibly to within striking distance of the PNW.

 

Oh it'll come back...and slide east.  Our access to Arctic air continues to dwindle every year.  We might not see much of any PNW low elevation snow events going forward in our lifetimes.

[Phil]

Most GFS runs have kept Alaska cold.

You generally don’t want Alaska cold in a +ENSO year unless you’re in a cold climate/narrow z-cell era like 1968/69 was.

 

Your cold won’t be coming from Alaska this winter. It will have to be backdoor via high latitude blocking, either downstream or over Alaska/EPO domain. The chance for a classic -PNA/Aleutian ridge cold pattern was ruined by the Indo-Asia wavetrain and Pacific jet.

[TT-SEA]

Filtered sun... a dry and mild day here.