January 2019 Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[Jesse]

[MossMan]

I’ve already sent a mass email to family, friends, enemies, previous sexual partners, my old dentist, Macklemore, Cliff Avril, Comcast, Steve Pierce, Stormchaser Chuck and Pauly Shore about the upcoming Arctic freight train.

No Kevin Martin or CraigOmahaWX?

[Requiem]

The wait between the 18z GFS and the beginning of the 00z suite is brutal. And our weekend storm/flash freeze isn’t in the range of the 18z Euro yet, so I’m just as antsy as you guys are, lol.

You’re bound to get some interesting weather in the next week or two, no matter what happens. Us on the other hand /:

[SilverFallsAndrew]

No Kevin Martin or CraigOmahaWX?

 

Steve P. ! Didn't he used to post on here occasionally, before he got the TV gig?

[snow_wizard]

Soemthing big is brewing for a major US cold wave!  Now we just have to see how the details play out.  Very exciting model developments with a number of models showing real cold plunging into the NW at the end of the month.  Specifically...12z ECMWF ensemble much improved, ECMWF control model is epic, some epic CFS runs today, GFS operational gets quite cold on both the 12z and 18z, GFS parallel is starting to have some good runs as well.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Soemthing big is brewing for a major US cold wave!  Now we just have to see how the details play out.  Very exciting model developments with a number of models showing real cold plunging into the NW at the end of the month.  Specifically...12z ECMWF ensemble much improved, ECMWF control model is epic, some epic CFS runs today, GFS operational gets quite cold on both the 12z and 18z, GFS parallel is starting to have some good runs as well.

 

Jim's on board! It is exciting isn't it! I hope we get BLASTED, but it will be fun to track either way!

[Gradient Keeper]

If I am wrong... then I am wrong and I blew it.   No excuses.   

 

I strongly believe its coming in the Feb 1-5 period.    I made a prediction about 3 weeks out.   Big fuckking deal.    I would like to be right in my prediction.   Nature will decide... not me.  

 

I have been dealing with a 102-degree fever since yesterday and don't have the energy right now to deal with people looking for some sinister motive for a making a simple prediction on a weather forum.     

 

I saw Bryant was also engaging in a sham publicity stunt with his prediction of late January.   So evil and sinister.     <_>

That stinks. Feel better soon.

 

00z GFS in 1 hour 11 minutes!

[Gradient Keeper]

75% chance the ridge/block holds over us

24% chance the block retrogrades, arctic blast January 29th

1% chance I'm crazy

 

00z GFS in 2 hours 25 minutes!

....OR, a 75% chance I'm crazy.

24% chance the ridge/block holds over us.

1% chance the block retrogrades, arctic blast January 29th.

 

Also: Anyone notice the server much slower than is typical? It sure is for me.

[Phil]

[Phil]

You’re bound to get some interesting weather in the next week or two, no matter what happens. Us on the other hand /:

That’s probably true, but I could envision a scenario where the cold is too overbearing and I end up waiting two weeks for the archambault storm at the end, with no fun in between as everything gets squashed to the south.

 

I don’t particularly enjoy dry, frigid, snowless weather unless it’s from a numbers/records perspective.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Yeah?

 

Comes out between the 18Z GFS and the 00z NAM.

I know there is now an 18z and a 6z euro, but I haven't seen it yet online. How far out does it go? Where is it available? Guessing weather.us may have it for paid customers.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

....OR, a 75% chance I'm crazy.

24% chance the ridge/block holds over us.

1% chance the block retrogrades, arctic blast January 29th.

 

Also: Anyone notice the server much slower than is typical? It sure is for me.

Guessing all the East Coast weather weenies are overloading the servers and are slowing it down. I see that too, sometimes an image won't load.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

I know there is now an 18z and a 6z euro, but I haven't seen it yet online. How far out does it go? Where is it available? Guessing weather.us may have it for paid customers.

Just checked.

 

Ryan Maue

@RyanMaue

Caught up on email from ECMWF announcing data availability changes on October 1st.

Hourly data from 0 - 90 hours (all cycles)

Additional 6-day forecasts from 06z and 18z HRES + EPS

[Deweydog]

It’d be nice if they’d, at least for the time being, initialize runs at 192 hours.

 

#weenieefficiency

[Jesse]

Yeah?

 

Comes out between the 18Z GFS and the 00z NAM.

I thought that was just a myth.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Jörg | kachelmannwetter.com

@Kachelmann

·

5h

How cold is it gonna be? Check the #ECMWF forecast for every place (just type it in) in the world including yours - see the 14 day Ensemble forecast with uncertainties, scroll to the right for next week:

 

https://weather.us/forecast/ensemble

[Deweydog]

I can already tell the 00z is gonna be in the long range.

[Requiem]

I can already tell the 00z is gonna be s**t in the long range.

 

Why? Not much is different. Then again I'm not expecting much anyway.

[Gradient Keeper]

Ridge is gonna merge sooner with the offshore ridge pulling it further west. YEAH! C'MON!!!!

 

00z ECMWF in 2 hours

[Requiem]

Ridge is gonna merge sooner with the offshore ridge pulling it further west. YEAH! C'MON!!!!

 

00z ECMWF in 2 hours

 

One can hope....

[Kayla]

Why? Not much is different. Then again I'm not expecting much anyway.

 

Are you sure you're 17?? I had sarcasm pretty well nailed down by then.

[Requiem]

Are you sure you're 17?? I had sarcasm pretty well nailed down by then.

 

It's not very apparent over the internet, you know. Sorry if I'm not a master of deriving emotion from internet text like others are. What a magnificent faux-pas I've committed, fie on me.

[Geos]

Crazy impressive pattern showing up.

 

Really liking the dry weather so far thia week. Got a lot done outside before it got dark.

[Esquimalt]

[Timmy]

It's not very apparent over the internet, you know. Sorry if I'm not a master of deriving emotion from internet text like others are. What a magnificent faux-pas I've committed, fie on me.

you should at least have deweydog down by now, he is sarcasm incarnate.

[Deweydog]

you should at least have deweydog down by now, he is sarcasm incarnate.

I was dead red serious. Onto the 6z..................

[Requiem]

you should at least have deweydog down by now, he is sarcasm incarnate.

 

Yeah, I'll try to work on that. Then again, it's apparent that we have some proud sarcasm-understanding prodigies here, so I'm afraid my sarcasm-interpreting skills may not match up to theirs.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

It's not very apparent over the internet, you know. Sorry if I'm not a master of deriving emotion from internet text like others are. What a magnificent faux-pas I've committed, fie on me.

You're fine. You will learn Dewey's humor soon enough. He is just repeating a phrase heard all too often around here.

[Kayla]

I was dead red serious. Onto the 6z..................

 

Nice!

[snow_wizard]

Jim's on board! It is exciting isn't it! I hope we get BLASTED, but it will be fun to track either way!

 

I'm on board for a big cold wave in the United States later in the month.  Not sure if we get blasted or just brushed by it yet though.  With the type of cold air mass being shown even being close to it would be pretty darn cold.

[snow_wizard]

The temperatures have been crazy here over the past few days.  We are right on the edge of the east wind zone with this so we are alternating between breezy and calm.  Last night it dropped to 32 around 10pm then shot up to 48 at midnight and then plunged to 30 by morning.  One of the few times I've seen it that on the edge here.

[Phil]

Guessing all the East Coast weather weenies are overloading the servers and are slowing it down. I see that too, sometimes an image won't load.

Haha, yep. And the Plains/Midwest weenies too.

[Phil]

I thought that was just a myth.

Nope!

[Phil]

Can look at the upstream wavetrain and see this will be a less “stupid” run than the 18z.

 

I’m not sure whether that’s good or bad for the PNW yet, but this looks more like some of the EPS members which have that D12-13 NATL wavebreak, with the later-timed megablast of cold air air (towards the end of the month) instead of the early start time like the 18z.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS Day 7

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2019011600/168/500h_anom.na.png

 

 

Compared to 12z

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2019011512/180/500h_anom.na.png

[Phil]

Oh boy this run might do it. Gonna be close D9-10.

 

Surprisingly early..wouldn’t expect that so soon through the intraseasonal orbit, but hey, you never know.

[GHweatherChris]

Oh boy this run might do it.

 

Gonna be close D9-10. Surprisingly early..wouldn’t expect that but hey, you never know.

Only make comments like this if us here in the west look to get blasted please, could care less about where you live, thanks in advance.

[Phil]

Only make comments like this if us here in the west look to get blasted please, could care less about where you live, thanks in advance.

I’m talking about the West.

 

I always am unless I specify otherwise.

[Bryant]

If I am wrong... then I am wrong and I blew it. No excuses.

 

I strongly believe its coming in the Feb 1-5 period. I made a prediction about 3 weeks out. Big fuckking deal. I would like to be right in my prediction. Nature will decide... not me.

 

I have been dealing with a 102-degree fever since yesterday and don't have the energy right now to deal with people looking for some sinister motive for a making a simple prediction on a weather forum.

 

I saw Bryant was also engaging in a sham publicity stunt with his prediction of late January. So evil and sinister. <_>

I made the prediciton based off of tropical forcing, which actually has backing, unlike your gut feeling. While there were some wet flakes, we ultimately didn't get established blocking during that time. This go around is based on the same line of thinking, but we have a much colder airmass to work with, and the lower levels of the tropics have cooled which allows for a stronger MJO wave.

 

In the end, it's just an educated guess... and I've never said "It's coming. Trust me on this one" or "lock it in". That's why it comes off as a publicity stunt

[Requiem]

Oh boy this run might do it. Gonna be close D9-10.

 

Surprisingly early..wouldn’t expect that so soon through the intraseasonal orbit, but hey, you never know.

I’m intrigued...