January 2019 Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[snow_wizard]

The 12z GEM has a pretty similar progression to the GFS, but not as amplified.  Last nights ECMWF ensemble control model was really cold.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Renewed hope!!!

[Gradient Keeper]

The 12z GEM has a pretty similar progression to the GFS, but not as amplified.  Last nights ECMWF ensemble control model was really cold.

00z GEM Ensembles were greatly improved last night too.

[snow_wizard]

I have to agree with phil with the fact that we likey see a stronger nino forum this summer with next winter being a moderate or strong event.but only time will tell.

 

Very possible, but historically speaking it wouldn't make sense.  I would suspect a monster Nina afterward if a Nino does happen next winter.  With the solar min there is some disagreement on when the bottom will be.  Of the two main models used by the Belgium observatory one says we have nearly hit bottom while the others says the bottom will be tremendously deep and still over a year off.  If the latter is the case a Nino would be even more unlikely.  Usually Ninos don't happen until the solar activity begins to increase again.  We did dissipate a lot of heat this winter so we may get lucky.

[MossMan]

Might need to put my poopy fork away.

[weatherfan2012]

Very possible, but historically speaking it wouldn't make sense. I would suspect a monster Nina afterward if a Nino does happen next winter. With the solar min there is some disagreement on when the bottom will be. Of the two main models used by the Belgium observatory one says we have nearly hit bottom while the others says the bottom will be tremendously deep and still over a year off. If the latter is the case a Nino would be even more unlikely. Usually Ninos don't happen until the solar activity begins to increase again. We did dissipate a lot of heat this winter so we may get lucky.

agreed it going to be very interesting to see how this trends over the next few years uncharted waters.just gos to show even with all the advancements with forecasting over the years.There is still lots of pieces of the puzzle that we just don't understand yet.

[Bryant]

I never wrote off anything. Show me where I did that. I intentionally did not do that because I assumed the models could lock in on short notice.

 

I was told to stop selling it so hard... so I complied.

 

The only sure thing is that you will mock me regardless of what happens!

Going through all of your posts would be too cringey, plus you could have easily deleted a post or 2. I clearly remember you back pedaling the "trust me it's going to happen" scenario you were shouting when the models were bullish. Of course you could just blame the back pedaling on the fact that people called you out for a publicity stunt, and that would make total sesne because nothing is ever your fault right?!

[snow_wizard]

Might need to put my poopy fork away.

 

I'm liking that!

[TT-SEA]

Going through all of your posts would be too cringey, plus you could have easily deleted a post or 2. I clearly remember you back pedaling the "trust me it's going to happen" scenario you were shouting when the models were bullish. Of course you could just blame the back pedaling on the fact that people called you out for a publicity stunt, and that would make total sesne because nothing is ever your fault right?!

 

Your posts are the "cringey" ones... always launching personal attacks.    You are obsessed with me!    Its sad and pathetic.     

 

I never changed my prediction.    I know the models often tease a pattern then take it away and then it comes back again.   But you will literally mock me no matter what happens so its pointless to debate you.   We could end up with a region wide blizzard on February 1st and I will still be totally wrong.   It would be best if you put me on ignore and stop making comments towards me.   We would all appreciate it!    

[Front Ranger]

This might be a case of good models a week ago, change to bad solutions for a while and everyone loses hope, only to revert back to better solutions shortly thereafter.

 

Certainly wouldn't be the first time.

 

I'm just looking for improvements in the 6-10 day period. We've definitely seen that over the past few runs, especially the FV3.

 

If the Euro continues that, even better.

[Sometimesdylan]

Everybody love everybody. Who cares if who supposedly backpedaled.

 

There's some good knowledge on this forum. I'm glad that I'm now in the area and actually get to benefit from these insights.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

GFS ALERT!

 

 

The 12z GFS looks fantastic. It delivers a fully loaded Arctic Blast to the PNW.

 

[TT-SEA]

Everybody love everybody. Who cares if who supposedly backpedaled.

 

There's some good knowledge on this forum. I'm glad that I'm now in the area and actually get to benefit from these insights.

 

Bryant is pretty much the only person on this forum who proudly engages in personal attacks all the time.    

[Frontal Snowsquall]

This might be a case of good models a week ago, change to bad solutions for a while and everyone loses hope, only to revert back to better solutions shortly thereafter.

 

Certainly wouldn't be the first time.

Same thing happened last year.

[ShawniganLake]

Winds gusted to 104mph along the NW coast of Vancouver Island yesterday.

[Front Ranger]

Euro stepping towards retrogression at day 7. Big improvement.

[Gradient Keeper]

Euro stepping towards retrogression at day 7. Big improvement.

Yep. Same ridge merger about to occur as with GFS, FV3, GEM also to some extent. Amplifying block, 560+heights over Anchorage, Aleutian low removed. Looks encouraging.

[TT-SEA]

Euro stepping towards retrogression at day 7. Big improvement.

 

 

The 850mb temp map at day 7 is not too encouraging yet though...

 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 8 Nice!

 

Kona low, huge block evolving, retrogression, trough kicking out of eastern US.

[TT-SEA]

Day 8 Nice!

 

Kona low, huge block evolving, retrogression, trough kicking out of eastern US.

 

 

Quite the anomaly center over southern AK!  

[Jesse]

A rare (for this winter) chilly rain in NW Oregon this morning it appears. Some nice Cascade snow pass level and above as well.

 

Liking those 12z runs.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Today is like a 10 degree warmer version of 1/1/04...

[luminen]

You pretty much wrote off that window of opportunity when the Euro changed its tune, but now it's back on huh?

 

#publicitystunt

 

We're all guilty of model riding, eh?   

[SilverFallsAndrew]

4.35" now on the month. We've closed that departure by over an inch in the past 48 hours. 

[Jesse]

Today is like a 10 degree warmer version of 1/1/04...

Similar track of the low.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 9 ... Warning shot. Goodies yet to come!

 

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

My friend over in Central Oregon picked up a couple inches of snow this morning. 

 

[TT-SEA]

You can watch the block migrating to the NW on the 12Z ECMWF.

 

I think its about to crash hard over the PNW on day 9.  

[Front Ranger]

Monster block setting up at day 9. Monster Kona low, too!

[Frontal Snowsquall]

The 12z GEM has a pretty similar progression to the GFS, but not as amplified. Last nights ECMWF ensemble control model was really cold.

Yeah, last night's 00z EURO EPS Control run showed a backdoor Arctic Blast for the PNW.

 

[TT-SEA]

Monster block setting up at day 9. Monster Kona low, too!

 

That is a deep low over Hawaii.   

[Gradient Keeper]

That is a deep low over Hawaii.   

993mb

 

18z GFS in 2 hours 33 minutes

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Might need to put my poopy fork away.

Your reverse psychology worked!

[Gradient Keeper]

I like what I'm seeing with 00z and now 12z this morning. We have a long, LONG ways to go, but I am encouraged. Cautiously optimistic.

[Front Ranger]

That is a deep low over Hawaii.   

 

Might ruin a few vacations.

[TT-SEA]

Might ruin a few vacations.

 

Best to get it over with now before our trip.   

[Front Ranger]

I like what I'm seeing with 00z and now 12z this morning. We have a long, LONG ways to go, but I am encouraged. Cautiously optimistic.

 

Yeah, Euro doesn't quite get there on this run, but it's a massive improvement day 6 on compared to yesterday. Love the amplification.

 

12z EPS should be interesting.

[Gradient Keeper]

Yeah, Euro doesn't quite get there on this run, but it's a massive improvement day 6 on compared to yesterday. Love the amplification.

 

12z EPS should be interesting.

Sure looks like Day 10-12 would turn really cold. Move this inside Day 7 and I think we'll at the very least see backdoor cold/modified arctic blast.

 

00z ECMWF in 10 hours 40 minutes

[TT-SEA]

Yeah, Euro doesn't quite get there on this run, but it's a massive improvement day 6 on compared to yesterday. Love the amplification.

 

12z EPS should be interesting.

Feb 1 is not quite within 10 days yet.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Day 9 ... Warning shot. Goodies yet to come!

 

 

The trend is our friend again!