January 2019 Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 2

[Gradient Keeper]

WRF is notoriously wrong time and time again. I think it was two years ago it was showing like up to a foot of snow in the convergence zone and none materialized. Within 72 hours of supposedly happening. If it is not showing much then are chances for double digit amounts increase dramatically.

You're talking about mesoscale features and 3 days out too. Of course things changed. If it were inside 36 hours it probably would have verified or been close.

[seattleweatherguy]

Bad trend of the GFS runs today. Weaker with the 500mb trough coming into the PNW with less phasing with the northern stream and more positively tilted as the system moves eastward. Result is a reduction in snowfall over WA due to weaker dynamics.

Yikes. Thanks for your input

[Gradient Keeper]

Compared to 12z yesterday the arctic trough is 2 notches further east. There could be a much colder tap of air this run.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 3

 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 4

 

[TT-SEA]

Wow... the 12Z ECMWF is solid notch to the west again.     Much warmer for Sunday and Monday as a result... particularly for western WA.

 

The cold air is not really here yet on Monday morning on this run.

 

[Winterdog]

Doesn't look cold enough for snow on the Monday 850's.  The cold is definitely delayed a bit.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Always the fine details that totally screw us over!

[Gradient Keeper]

The next 2-3 runs are likely to waver a bit on the exact track of arctic trough and low. Hoping the EURO also shows the same reload potential of the 12z GFS, GEM, FV3, ICON? Can't remember. 1 hour sleep and fading.....

[Cloud]

Doesn't look cold enough for snow on the Monday 850's.  The cold is definitely delayed a bit.

History have always shown the cold will almost always delayed by a day or so. By then, the moisture is on its way out and most of the time, we are left with chilly sunny days. 

Not surprising.

[TT-SEA]

Total snow through Monday morning per the 12Z ECMWF...

 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 5

 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Day 5

 

Splitting?

[TT-SEA]

Day 5

 

 

 

A little warmer at that time as well... heart of the cold air dives offshore and into southern OR and CA.  

 

[GHweatherChris]

I knew it...

[TT-SEA]

Total snow through Monday afternoon... there is a deformation band just south of Seattle on Monday.

 

 

 

Here is just Monday afternoon...

 

[Gradient Keeper]

Anyone notice how close that cold lobe is to northeastern Washington at Day 5? Notice how the trough digs a bit further southwest and that cold lobe follows? If that continues on 00z it's going to get real cold at least into the Columbia Basin.

[Requiem]

Well, things are kind of unraveling...

[TT-SEA]

Then the deformation band dissolves on Monday evening without really moving south.

 

[luvssnow_spokane]

Oh, I forgot to add that the sun angle will be the highest it has been all year, laser melting snow before it even forms.

You forgot to add that if it does snow it will snow everywhere accept Jim’s house and the swamp. Only 33 degree rain there.

[HighlandExperience]

TT you mind posting close up map of WA state for snowfall?

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 10+ Canadian ensembles looks REAL NICE

 

[TT-SEA]

Real cold air finally arrives on Wednesday morning after precip is gone.

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Salem scores 2" on this run. About 4-6" up here. That deformation band is 100 miles south I'd get 1'+.

[Winterdog]

Per usual, maybe some wet snow showers or lumpy rain.  

 

Anyone notice how close that cold lobe is to northeastern Washington at Day 5? Notice how the trough digs a bit further southwest and that cold lobe follows? If that continues on 00z it's going to get real cold at least into the Columbia Basin.

Backdoor cold sucks.

[TT-SEA]

TT you mind posting close up map of WA state for snowfall?

 

 

Hawkstwelve beat me to it... the WA state map is slower to update than the regional NW map.  

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 6

 

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

EURO delivers about 1" of snow Eug-PDX Tuesday morning.

[TT-SEA]

A new feature on the 12Z ECMWF is a band of light snow moving through on Tuesday morning... that helps.

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

10am Monday morning 850mb temps

 

Seattle: -6C

PDX:     -7C

SLE:      -8C

EUG:     -8C

Coos Bay: -9C

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 7 trying to reload. We'll see if it gets there

 

[TT-SEA]

I guess its time to shut the forum down.

 

Nooooooooo... there is definitely snow coming!   

[Esquimalt]

Total snow by 10AM Tuesday after King County and the Portland area fill in a little more.

 

Only people who should be griping about this is the North Sounders.

 

Almost all other places end up with more snow than the 00z.

Not great for bc folks either

[Gradient Keeper]

Total snow by 10AM Tuesday after King County and the Portland area fill in a little more.

 

Only people who should be griping about this are the North Sounders as their totals dropped a couple inches.

 

Almost all other places end up with more snow than the 00z, especially in the SW Interior.

4 inches for me. I hope so. Thanks for posting.

[Perturbed Member]

Total snow by 10AM Tuesday after King County and the Portland area fill in a little more.

 

Only people who should be griping about this are the North Sounders as their totals dropped a couple inches.

 

Almost all other places end up with more snow than the 00z, especially in the SW Interior.

 

Was worried about the continued westward trend but good to see that it works out for most places. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

EURO spitting out some really impressive lows in the 12-16 range for the South Sound area Wednesday morning with snow cover. 23 at SLE and PDX, 19 for SEA.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Total snow by 10AM Tuesday after King County and the Portland area fill in a little more.

 

Only people who should be griping about this are the North Sounders as their totals dropped a couple inches.

 

Almost all other places end up with more snow than the 00z, especially in the SW Interior.

Dallas-Corvallis finally breaking their streak on this run.

[Timmy]

Euro is the best so far for extreme nw Oregon. Looks like 3-4” in scappoose and 6” here

[TigerWoodsLibido]

EURO spitting out some really impressive lows in the 12-16 range for the South Sound area Wednesday morning with snow cover. 23 at SLE and PDX, 19 for SEA.

Can u post a map? What’s EUG at? I’m assuming a bit warmer.