January 2019 Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[Deweydog]

Jaws II is on. It was released in 1978. Early February that following winter was purty chilly...

[TT-SEA]

Jaws II is on. It was released in 1978. Early February that following winter was purty chilly...

 

I flipped past that last night... I always think about the weather that was happening when movies were filmed.  

[Deweydog]

I flipped past that last night... I always think about the weather that was happening when movies were filmed.

I do the same thing.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Ensemble mean bottoms out at -7C at PDX. Somewhere around -6C to -8C is probably where this will end up.

[Phil]

FWIW, my take (which might not be worth much) is similar to Bryant’s, in that the “western solution” might be less preferable, simply because it keeps the polar front displaced farther to the north. And that matters, since this is a longwave pattern that could drive multiple shortwaves along that boundary.

 

So I’d want the cold air/gradient to be as “ready and accessible” as possible before worrying about anything else. It’s a source for all kinds of important stuff like frontogenic forcings/dynamics/UVVs/crystal growth at ideal altitudes, etc.

[Deweydog]

It’s like the models have a build in “screw the northwest when it comes to cold” bias...Let’s bring back the MRF

Dumpster. Fire.

 

Except 1998! It rocked that b*tch 10 days out.

[TT-SEA]

FWIW, my take (which might not be worth much) is similar to Bryant’s, in that the “western solution” might be less preferable, simply because it keeps the polar front displaced farther to the north.

 

And that matters, since this is a longwave pattern that could drive multiple shortwaves along that boundary. So I’d want the cold air/gradient to be as “ready and accessible” as possible before worrying about anything else. Because it’s a source for all kinds of important stuff like frontogenic forcings/dynamics/UVVs, crystal growth at ideal altitudes, etc.

We all know a westward trend in this situation is bad. We have lived it before.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

FWIW, my take (which might not be worth much) is similar to Bryant’s, in that the “western solution” might be less preferable, simply because it keeps the polar front displaced farther to the north.

 

And that matters, since this is a longwave pattern that could drive multiple shortwaves along that boundary. So I’d want the cold air/gradient to be as “ready and accessible” as possible before worrying about anything else. Because it’s a source for all kinds of important stuff like frontogenic forcings/dynamics/UVVs, crystal growth at ideal altitudes, etc.

Dendritic growth zone somewhere in there?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I am at peace with the situation. I gave up on this winter 3 weeks ago, so anything will be fine with me.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Going to end January with 5.70" of rain. Just over half of normal.

[Deweydog]

FWIW, my take (which might not be worth much) is similar to Bryant’s, in that the “western solution” might be less preferable, simply because it keeps the polar front displaced farther to the north.

 

And that matters, since this is a longwave pattern that could drive multiple shortwaves along that boundary. So I’d want the cold air/gradient to be as “ready and accessible” as possible before worrying about anything else. Because it’s a source for all kinds of important stuff like frontogenic forcings/dynamics/UVVs, crystal growth at ideal altitudes, etc.

Exactly. We may not be cold enough for it but our chances for snow increase as a result.

[TT-SEA]

Going to end January with 5.70" of rain. Just over half of normal.

 

I can confidently say it was a drier than normal month here.

 

The Cedar Lake station ended up with 8.09 inches compared to a normal of 13.35 inches.

 

And we had only 14 days with precip here this month... so 17 dry days compared to a normal of 12.

 

Also... we had 20 days at or above 50 degrees.

[Phil]

Dendritic growth zone somewhere in there?

Yeah, I wrote crystal growth but same implication. The altitude/pressure/temp-dd at which it occurs are all important for ratios and dynamic cooling at the surface, as everyone knows.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

EUG up to 62! Incredible 62/37 spread. Also enough to push the average high to 50.0 for the month (49.96), average low was 34.4. A moderate +1.5 departure on the month.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

PDX should end up with a +1.9 departure.

 

SLE +1.6

 

About 2-3F cooler than last January for the Willamette Valley at least.

[Phil]

We all know a westward trend in this situation is bad. We have lived it before.

I was trying to compare the “ too far west” scenario with the “too far east” one people were talking about earlier. In the latter case, the polar front will probably make it south of the border, well into N-WA at least.

 

However, that looks to be (essentially) off the table at this point. So I guess stopping the west trend here and reining the 500mb vort back to the coast a bit would be the ideal outcome.

[TT-SEA]

I was trying to compare the “ too far west” scenario with the “too far east” one people were talking about earlier. In the latter case, the polar front will probably make it south of the border, well into N-WA at least.

 

However, that looks to be (essentially) off the table at this point. So I guess stopping the west trend here and reining the 500mb vort back to the coast a bit would be the ideal outcome.

Yes.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

EUG up to 62! Incredible 62/37 spread. Also enough to push the average high to 50.0 for the month (49.96), average low was 34.4. A moderate +1.5 departure on the month.

 

Cali of the PNW lowlands.

[Phil]

Exactly. We may not be cold enough for it but our chances for snow increase as a result.

Your nonchalant attitude a disrespectful betrayal to the seriousness of this situation.

[TT-SEA]

PDX should end up with a +1.9 departure.

 

SLE +1.6

 

About 2-3F cooler than last January for the Willamette Valley at least.

SEA will end up around +3.0 for the month... with a range of 61/31.

 

SEA did manage the second below freezing temp of the cold season this month... with the 31 on 1/15.

[Phil]

Yes.

Forgive me if I’m regurgitating the obvious. I’m trying to contribute however I can. I’m not a mesoscale guy.

[TT-SEA]

Forgive me if I’m regurgitating the obvious. I’m trying to contribute however I can. I’m not a mesoscale guy.

You have lots of good insight all the time.

[Perturbed Member]

Difference in snowfall maps between the 12z and 18z FV3 is pretty remarkable. Ouch. We have only the Euro, GEM and ICON now. 00z runs will be pretty interesting.

[Gradient Keeper]

1-31-19 3:50 PM Model analysis

The good(COLD) vs bad(Not as cold) runs

 

500mb analysis Days 2-4. Analyzing the 18z ICON, 12z GEM compared to 18z GFS, 18z NAM, 18z FV3, 12z ECMWF. Looking at block position, axis, amplification, configuration, arctic trough positioning, axis, trough axis orientation.

 

~ Day 2 - One obvious difference is the ICON block is centered a bit further south and a bit less amplification up through Alaska than other models. Not quite as much tilt as well. Other models are fairly similar at this time frame.

 

~ Day 2.5 - The 'shape' of the Arctic trough in Central British Columbia is more rounded with axis oriented NNE to SSW and punching southward. Other models show the more sharper and less favorable WSW to NE tilt.

 

~ Day 3 - ICON block is a bit wider and also a bit less amplitude up through Alaska and is centered a bit further east than other models. Due to the width higher heights spread further east and tend to funnel or 'steer' the arctic trough more southward. Trough axis remains more N to S oriented. The GEM also has a bit wider block and centered further east than GFS, ECMWF, NAM, FV3, just not quite as much as ICON.

 

~ Day 3.5 - Yet again ICON block is much wider with less amplification and not as tilted. This configuration does not allow the arctic trough to carve out off southwestern British Columbia as seen with the GFS, FV3, NAM, ECMWF, and GEM to a bit lesser extent.

 

~ Day 4 - ICON block remains wider, less amplified. GEM also a bit similar. ICON block also centered 3 degrees in latitude further east. GEM 2. GFS, FV3, NAM, ECMWF a bit sharper block and more tilt. Air mass remains colder with ICON due to lessened over water trajectory and no warm air advection off the milder ocean. Cold air filters south much better. GEM somewhat similar.

 

* My thoughts - It's quite glaring that the colder runs such at the GEM and ICON feature a more 'beefy' block in the Day 2-4 period. This causes the block to spread out a bit more and as the arctic trough moves south-southwestward it buts up against it and holds the trough in place shoving on a more southward track compared to the GFS, FV3, NAM, and ECMWF which dig the arctic air off the BC coast just north of Vancouver Island. If we look for any last second trends it'll be to see other models show a beefier wider block. That's about it. We'll see how models look the next 24 hours. Cautiously optimistic.

[Phil]

You have lots of good insight all the time.

Thank you. “All the time” might be a stretch, though.

 

Rob on the other hand..that guy is an encyclopedia of amazing model analysis.

[seattleweatherguy]

So there's a chance.....yeah!

[TT-SEA]

Difference in snowfall maps between the 12z and 18z FV3 is pretty remarkable. Ouch. We have only the Euro, GEM and ICON now. 00z runs will be pretty interesting.

 

 

I would not say we "only" have the EURO... that is a pretty big deal.  

[Deweydog]

Your nonchalant attitude a disrespectful betrayal to the seriousness of this situation.

Lives are at stake.

 

Or at least moods.

[Esquimalt]

Look at this beauty. 

 

 

[Phil]

Uh oh, the CFSv2 is on board.

 

It’s over.

[Deweydog]

Jaws II is just not very good.

 

Hard to believe we did so well that winter.

[Perturbed Member]

I would not say we "only" have the EURO... that is a pretty big deal.  

 

Fair. 

 

One thing encouraging about it is the euro showed solid snowfall even after shifting the trough a bit west relative to previous euro runs and the GEM/ICON. Gives some confidence that maybe there is some wiggle room in the trough positioning.  

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Again. Let’s hope things slide east as we approach it. How ironic.

[BLI snowman]

Looking like winter 2018-19 is back on.

[Deweydog]

There’s a difference between what’s happening now and a typical, terrain-influenced slide to the east.

[Perturbed Member]

Another encouraging thing is it shows precip lingering around through 4PM Tuesday, much longer than other models.

 

Allows us to capitalize on the colder air moving in much easier without relying solely on the Sunday/Monday semi-borderline-for-lowland-areas thing we have going on now.

 

 

Yeah, that seemed to intuitively make some sense too with the longer over water trajectory leading to more precip. Surprising that the other models didn't show that. Hopefully they come around to it. 

 

I'd be a lot more nervous now if the euro had given us the shaft and we were clinging to the GFS.

[BLI snowman]

Yeah, that seemed to intuitively make some sense too with the longer over water trajectory leading to more precip. Surprising that the other models didn't show that. Hopefully they come around to it. 

 

I'd be a lot more nervous now if the euro had given us the shaft and we were clinging to the GFS.

 

The trend is now pretty decisive. Even on the usually cold-happy NAM. I just don't see the trend for a more consolidated upper level event reemerging at this late hour. Maybe some room for middle ground between the models, but not enough to make for a very meaningful event IMO.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

At least some cooler temps. Better than a complete torch like today.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looking like winter 2018-19 is back on.

 

You were sweating bullets there for a bit weren't you!

[Requiem]

Well, things don’t seem as bad as they seemed. Some models are still on track, and foothills look to get at least something.