CentralNebWeather Posted January 11, 2019 Report Share Posted January 11, 2019 That looks like a big dry slot on the radar in Oklahoma and Texas. NWS Hastings mentioned that this morning in their disco that some amounts will be a lot less where that goes through possibly in some Kansas zones. Something to look at in the next 24 hours. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 11, 2019 Report Share Posted January 11, 2019 12z EURO= DSM-SAT 00Z 12-JAN -0.3 -2.5 1023 72 79 0.01 559 540 SAT 06Z 12-JAN -2.0 -3.8 1024 91 97 0.12 557 538 SAT 12Z 12-JAN -2.8 -5.1 1024 92 96 0.21 554 535 SAT 18Z 12-JAN -1.9 -6.0 1025 88 97 0.17 553 533 SUN 00Z 13-JAN -1.6 -6.8 1028 91 91 0.09 554 532 SUN 06Z 13-JAN -2.7 -6.2 1030 90 86 0.01 556 532 OMA-SAT 00Z 12-JAN 0.5 -2.0 1021 81 80 0.01 558 541 SAT 06Z 12-JAN -0.4 -3.6 1023 96 96 0.13 556 538 SAT 12Z 12-JAN -1.4 -4.4 1023 93 98 0.21 553 535 SAT 18Z 12-JAN -1.5 -6.0 1026 88 98 0.17 553 533 SUN 00Z 13-JAN -1.4 -6.2 1028 89 89 0.05 555 533 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 11, 2019 Report Share Posted January 11, 2019 LNK -SAT 00Z 12-JAN 0.1 -1.6 1021 84 89 0.03 558 542 SAT 06Z 12-JAN -0.3 -3.9 1022 97 99 0.19 556 538 SAT 12Z 12-JAN -1.2 -4.2 1023 93 96 0.21 553 535 SAT 18Z 12-JAN -2.2 -5.6 1026 87 94 0.12 554 533 SUN 00Z 13-JAN -2.3 -6.5 1029 85 84 0.02 556 533 CID-SAT 06Z 12-JAN -2.4 -3.3 1026 68 97 0.02 558 538 SAT 12Z 12-JAN -3.1 -4.4 1025 88 97 0.14 555 535 SAT 18Z 12-JAN -1.5 -6.1 1026 85 98 0.16 553 533 SUN 00Z 13-JAN -1.3 -6.7 1028 90 93 0.12 554 532 SUN 06Z 13-JAN -2.2 -5.9 1030 87 89 0.01 555 532 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted January 11, 2019 Report Share Posted January 11, 2019 Loving the euro! We'll see what happens! Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted January 11, 2019 Report Share Posted January 11, 2019 HRRR is trending ever so slightly colder. Still not where we want it to be but it's getting there. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 11, 2019 Report Share Posted January 11, 2019 Grizz can you post IOW? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FV-Mike Posted January 11, 2019 Report Share Posted January 11, 2019 Euro better for Chi peeps as well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 11, 2019 Report Share Posted January 11, 2019 IOW-SAT 06Z 12-JAN -2.5 -3.8 1026 74 97 0.03 558 538 SAT 12Z 12-JAN -2.9 -4.7 1025 90 96 0.20 555 535 SAT 18Z 12-JAN -1.5 -6.4 1026 87 97 0.19 553 533 SUN 00Z 13-JAN -1.2 -6.7 1027 91 94 0.12 554 532 SUN 06Z 13-JAN -1.8 -6.0 1029 88 89 0.02 555 532 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 11, 2019 Report Share Posted January 11, 2019 ORD-SAT 12Z 12-JAN -1.5 -4.7 1028 79 95 0.01 557 535 SAT 18Z 12-JAN -0.4 -6.2 1028 78 99 0.05 555 534 SUN 00Z 13-JAN -1.0 -7.6 1029 88 92 0.21 553 531 SUN 06Z 13-JAN -1.3 -7.2 1029 83 91 0.08 554 531 SUN 12Z 13-JAN -2.5 -6.2 1030 78 75 0.01 555 532 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted January 11, 2019 Report Share Posted January 11, 2019 Parents just said change over has happened at their place north of Columbia. Currently showing 39 degrees here though :/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 11, 2019 Report Share Posted January 11, 2019 Seeing a S sag on mid range HRRR / RAP with dry air.(in IOWA) I will say though that RAP busted here pretty bad a few weeks ago - though it was not the kind of bust you want. It had snow and ended up with nothing. So you can put your stock in the EURO (which has highly fluctuated the past 3 runs or the short range. I siding with the short range and saying 2-4" here. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jzuzphreek Posted January 11, 2019 Report Share Posted January 11, 2019 The drizzle just began here in St. Joseph, MO. And the temp has dropped fairly quickly over the last 2 hours. Wunderground tells me it's 38 degrees, and feels like 32. I've told my boss, first snowflake I see, I'm leaving for the day. All my coworkers know I'm a snow-nerd from the south. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted January 11, 2019 Report Share Posted January 11, 2019 If my original post goes through I was wrong the hrrr amps up a band here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 11, 2019 Report Share Posted January 11, 2019 Seeing a S sag on mid range HRRR / RAP with dry air.(in IOWA) I will say though that RAP busted here pretty bad a few weeks ago - though it was not the kind of bust you want. It had snow and ended up with nothing. So you can put your stock in the EURO (which has highly fluctuated the past 3 runs or the short range. I siding with the short range and saying 2-4" here. Yeah, the Euro brings decent snow up through Chicagoland and 0.40" to Cedar Rapids. The HRRR is much more robust with the dry air feed, says CR only gets 0.10-0.15" and Chicagoland gets nothing. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 11, 2019 Report Share Posted January 11, 2019 WWA just issued for Linn County and I sense a WSW for SE IA coming on. Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted January 11, 2019 Report Share Posted January 11, 2019 OAX seems convinced that any 6"+ areas up in this neck of the woods will be too isolated to warrant a WSW, though I think they will issue one for the far Southeastern counties during the next shift. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 11, 2019 Report Share Posted January 11, 2019 Anyone have any opions on how the radar seems to be lining up with HRRR/RAP ? Haven't had the time to do it. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted January 11, 2019 Report Share Posted January 11, 2019 NAM initializing about a degree too cold. Bigger on dry air at the onset it looks like but it looks to saturate up here at about 9pm. I'm eager to see how the rest of the run goes because I'm worried about the dry air with this one. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 11, 2019 Report Share Posted January 11, 2019 Anyone have any opions on how the radar seems to be lining up with HRRR/RAP ? Haven't had the time to do it. The 18z HRRR didn't budge, which is somewhat worrisome if you were hoping for the globals to be right. 1 Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted January 11, 2019 Report Share Posted January 11, 2019 Anyone have any opions on how the radar seems to be lining up with HRRR/RAP ? Haven't had the time to do it. Radar is lining up almost perfectly with HRRR. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted January 11, 2019 Report Share Posted January 11, 2019 It's amazing how none of the models have budged one bit since yesterday and the storm is already here. I'm dismissing the NAMily because radar doesn't initialize well on it at all. HRRR is almost completely spot on right now besides being a bit warm. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted January 11, 2019 Report Share Posted January 11, 2019 There's another Southward trend with the cutoff happening and I am not liking it one bit. Now, even a 5 mile shift South in the cutoff will decrease my totals by an inch or two. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted January 11, 2019 Report Share Posted January 11, 2019 Yah 18z Nam has my county high and dry by literally 40 miles. I"m so sick of these storms with their sharpe cut offs; we are so over due for a share the wealth storm it's not even funny. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 11, 2019 Report Share Posted January 11, 2019 St. Louis could really have some nice totals 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted January 11, 2019 Report Share Posted January 11, 2019 3km NAM gives the Northwest corner of the county 0.2" and the Southeast corner 6.5". Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 11, 2019 Report Share Posted January 11, 2019 That cutoff on the NAM is something else. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jzuzphreek Posted January 11, 2019 Report Share Posted January 11, 2019 The drizzle just began here in St. Joseph, MO. And the temp has dropped fairly quickly over the last 2 hours. Wunderground tells me it's 38 degrees, and feels like 32. I've told my boss, first snowflake I see, I'm leaving for the day. All my coworkers know I'm a snow-nerd from the south. And we have snow!! Local weather had been calling for snow not beginning until the evening all week. So it looks like we're gonna be in for the long haul! Bring it on! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 11, 2019 Report Share Posted January 11, 2019 Freezing rain and sleet here. Getting a little slick on some streets 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 11, 2019 Author Report Share Posted January 11, 2019 12 EPS snow mean also shifted N quite a bit from previous runs...Chicago back in the 2-4" range...that's a pretty big shift to see on the EPS.... 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted January 11, 2019 Report Share Posted January 11, 2019 Wow hrrr really cutting that northern edge. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 11, 2019 Report Share Posted January 11, 2019 I feel like I'm lurking in another sub. Pretty sad state of affairs for us Mitt peeps. Too warm out west, too much blocking cold over here. As usual, most from Chicago west have skin in the game and are active participants. Then later we'll get something just in MI and there will be a nearly dead thread with maybe 3 posters. Anyways, all who are in this good luck! Just nice to see the CONUS lit up with snow headlines finally! 5 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 11, 2019 Report Share Posted January 11, 2019 At this point in the game - at least time wise here in C.IA for the RAP and HRRR ; they are getting close to their wheelhouse and not lining up with some of the more aggressive global models. Of course ; they could be wrong. But so could the global models. A verdict should be known but sometime around 8-9 Pm tonight. Would be odd to see the EURO bust this bad- but it's really not designed for something this in close. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 11, 2019 Report Share Posted January 11, 2019 WWA just 1 county south of me. Unfortunately this time being on the northern side doesn’t look promising for much here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 11, 2019 Report Share Posted January 11, 2019 From DMX AFD- Zooming into mesoscale, def zone clearly sets up across centralto southern Iowa. Decent 500-300mb q-vector convergence ahead ofthis band, with a well-phased clear pocket of low-level moistureflux convergence. Somewhat of a sharp moisture cut-off on thenorthern edge suggests slightly tight gradient, where 15-20 mileswill make a difference in terms of impacts. To put this into someperspective, the last significant winter weather system thatimpacted locations along and south of roughly I-80, bringing 15+inches of snow to south-central Iowa, had roughly a 8-12 milesharp cut-off gradient.Timing...Impacts should begin in southern Iowa around 00z tonight, graduallyexpanding northward towards I-80 by around 06z tonight lastingthrough 00z tomorrow. By 18z, much of the accumulating snow shouldbe done... just lingering flurries expected to continue. Confidencefairly high in the timing... most snow will fall overnight tonight,gradually fading by tomorrow afternoon.Amounts...Snow ratios with this system may be a little tricky to pin down.Moisture/supersaturation levels will be the key as tough right nowto pin down dendrites vs more plates in terms of snow crystal habits.Feel good with 8-9 in snow ratios early on... gradually increasingthroughout the event.Confidence is very high that the highest amounts will be in southernto south-central Iowa. Confidence medium-high as to where the northernedge will set up. At this time, it appears Highway 30 will be nearthe northern edge... Again, a 15 to 20 mile shift will make a differencein terms of where the more significant impacts are felt. 2 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted January 11, 2019 Report Share Posted January 11, 2019 OAX is taking their sweet time doing anything. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 11, 2019 Report Share Posted January 11, 2019 Now snowing here. Too bad it is 32 degrees and melting on contact. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 11, 2019 Report Share Posted January 11, 2019 Snow accumulating and started earlier than predicted, glad to be home from work. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted January 11, 2019 Report Share Posted January 11, 2019 OAX is taking their sweet time doing anything.As usual they like to play it cautious and wait until the last second. Two storms they done that with this year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted January 11, 2019 Report Share Posted January 11, 2019 hrrr nailed our little snow event on new years 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 11, 2019 Report Share Posted January 11, 2019 Right now the northward progress of the snow is well ahead of the 18z HRRR. To remove the dry air factor, I used composite reflectivity on the HRRR. I did NOT use composite on DMX or OAX due to high beam height. 1 Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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