Tom Posted January 24, 2019 Author Report Share Posted January 24, 2019 00z EPS holding steady and showing a healthy swath of potential heavy snows across the MW/Lower GL's...ratios will likely be at least 15:1 or better with this event so you can fluff up these qpf numbers. 06z GEFS... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted January 24, 2019 Report Share Posted January 24, 2019 00z EPS holding steady and showing a healthy swath of potential heavy snows across the MW/Lower GL's...ratios will likely be at least 15:1 or better with this event so you can fluff up these qpf numbers. 06z GEFS... One thing you have to keep an eye on this that with cold temperatures can come very small flake size 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 24, 2019 Author Report Share Posted January 24, 2019 06z GEFS... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 24, 2019 Report Share Posted January 24, 2019 Gfs way north againThough the 06z run was further south than its 00z run. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted January 24, 2019 Report Share Posted January 24, 2019 Insanely cold temps for parts of Iowa next week on the Euro, -40 in spots. Meanwhile a toasty -8 in Lincoln.Part of me says **** that my heating bill is already high enough, the other part says this sucks why can't the trough be right over us I wanna experience -40. 2 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shakjen Posted January 24, 2019 Report Share Posted January 24, 2019 I will take this one. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
badgerwx Posted January 24, 2019 Report Share Posted January 24, 2019 YES PLEASE ^^^ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted January 24, 2019 Report Share Posted January 24, 2019 I will take this one. Screenshot_1.thumb.jpg.d5e0c68949c47d9860d46ff7f9de5a5f.jpgWhich model is this from? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 24, 2019 Report Share Posted January 24, 2019 Insanely cold temps for parts of Iowa next week on the Euro, -40 in spots. Meanwhile a toasty -8 in Lincoln.GFS cold as well. Has wind chills below -30 in DBQ between HR 138 - 174 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 24, 2019 Report Share Posted January 24, 2019 Which model is this from?Canadian. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted January 24, 2019 Report Share Posted January 24, 2019 I guess the good thing at this point is that is that the models are still seeing this hybrid dropping a good amount of snow. Gem has the look of what the EURO had a couple runs ago. Fun times ahead. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 24, 2019 Report Share Posted January 24, 2019 NOAA: Strong upper wave/trough ejecting out of Western Canada on Sundaystill looks to be deepening and swinging through the region lateMonday-Tuesday time frame. The 12z Euro was the most aggressivedeepening the low, as the extreme PV anomaly/height falls droppingsouth from Central Canada catches up just in time, with thecombined/merged 6 HR height fall center tracking into the EasternGreat Lakes. This would be the worst case scenario, as 850-700 MBspecific humidity of 3+ g/kg would surge through southeast Michigan,and with the excellent thermal profiles in place, one can easily seea snowfall accumulation of 6+ inches possible. Still a lot of movingparts/players to deal with (illustrated in the GFS ensemblemembers), and timing discrepancies can mess up the possible phasing. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 24, 2019 Report Share Posted January 24, 2019 Not that it matters much at this range, but the NAM does appear to have a further south solution. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 24, 2019 Report Share Posted January 24, 2019 Not that it matters much at this range, but the NAM does appear to have a further south solution.Nam at HR 84 zzzz 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 24, 2019 Report Share Posted January 24, 2019 Nam at HR 84 zzzzHaha that’s why I made sure to add the first part in my post. Just moreso making note that it’s starting to come in range for the NAM. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshoe Posted January 24, 2019 Report Share Posted January 24, 2019 Could be a great set up for LES again. Things become more interesting on Sunday night as low level windsturn northeast after midnight along the Lake Michigan shorelinethen east on Monday. Lake to 850mb temperature differences of15C to 25C noted on the models during this period which willresult in lake effect showers moving onshore later Sunday nightalong the coast. Meanwhile, main system will move in from thewest. The system is expected to bring several inches of snowto central and east-central Wisconsin. For locations near thelake, the combination of an easterly flow off the lake for 12 to18 hours combined with the system snow could bring a substantialsnow, possibly over a foot if lake bands set up over the same spotfor a period of time. The lake effect snow showers are expected tolinger into Monday night until winds back to the north and thennorthwest. It will be interesting to see how this scenario playsout. 2 Quote WISCONSIN RAPIDS Wisconsin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 24, 2019 Report Share Posted January 24, 2019 Looks like the GFS is slippin’ in further south. Edit: Yup, definitely further south. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 24, 2019 Report Share Posted January 24, 2019 Big shift south on the GFS. Wow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 24, 2019 Report Share Posted January 24, 2019 Significant shift south from the 00z run. And juiced up. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 24, 2019 Author Report Share Posted January 24, 2019 That’s a dream run for Chitown...woah! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 24, 2019 Report Share Posted January 24, 2019 Gonna be a long 90 hours living and dying with each suite.. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 24, 2019 Report Share Posted January 24, 2019 I keep telling myself DON'T GET SUCKED IN Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 24, 2019 Author Report Share Posted January 24, 2019 Gonna be a long 90 hours living and dying with each suite..Keeps you on your edge...keeps the fun in tracking this hybrid. Haven’t seen one like this in years. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 24, 2019 Report Share Posted January 24, 2019 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 24, 2019 Report Share Posted January 24, 2019 Gonna be a long 90 hours living and dying with each suite..Well it’s gonna be less than that, because we’ll get an idea of how it’s looking track wise when it’s up in Canada Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted January 24, 2019 Report Share Posted January 24, 2019 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 24, 2019 Report Share Posted January 24, 2019 Capture.PNGNo need for any more model runs. Let’s just lock that one in and consider it done. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 24, 2019 Author Report Share Posted January 24, 2019 Unlike most clippers, this one will have a fairly wide snow shield with it keeping many of us in the game for decent accumulations. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 24, 2019 Report Share Posted January 24, 2019 12z CMC pretty similar to its 00z run. Might be a touch north as far as track, but the heavier precip shield is slightly further south. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted January 24, 2019 Report Share Posted January 24, 2019 Capture.PNGI expect higher totals if everything lines up perfectly. Good 12z model run and especially if Euro follows. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 24, 2019 Report Share Posted January 24, 2019 I expect higher totals if everything lines up perfectly. Good 12z model run and especially if Euro follows.You expect higher totals than what the GFS is showing? Or do you just mean you expect good snowfall if it all lines up perfectly? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
indianajohn Posted January 24, 2019 Report Share Posted January 24, 2019 with the high snow ratios gonna be fun using a leaf blower to clear 15 inches of snow!! LOL 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 24, 2019 Author Report Share Posted January 24, 2019 12z GGEM nearly identical to GFS...would like to see Ukie/Euro jump onboard with the juice potential. I’m on the road today, appreciate in advance for posting maps. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted January 24, 2019 Report Share Posted January 24, 2019 That high in Ontario north of the GL will determine the path of the low. 12z runs have that high pressure further west than prior runs. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted January 24, 2019 Report Share Posted January 24, 2019 You expect higher totals than what the GFS is showing? Or do you just mean you expect good snowfall if it all lines up perfectly?Actually higher totals especially with the fluff factor. Also throw in lake enhancement for an extended period of time near LM areas and those totals could really blossom. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 24, 2019 Author Report Share Posted January 24, 2019 That high in Ontario north of the GL will determine the path of the low. 12z runs have that high pressure further west than prior runs.I’ve been watching that on the EPS and it’s been maintaining that HP in that spot over the past several runs. To see the GFS and GGEM agree, seems like the Euro is leading the way with this one. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 24, 2019 Author Report Share Posted January 24, 2019 Actually higher totals especially with the fluff factor. Also throw in lake enhancement for an extended period of time near LM areas and those totals could really blossom.An added bonus, it looks like this will be primarily a daytime event. The pivot is basically picture perfect for N IL. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted January 24, 2019 Report Share Posted January 24, 2019 I’ve been watching that on the EPS and it’s been maintaining that HP in that spot over the past several runs. To see the GFS and GGEM agree, seems like the Euro is leading the way with this one.Yep, agree. I know the Euro isn’t known for tracking clippers as well as systems out of the SW, but there’s no reason to doubt that the Euro is the one to watch. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 24, 2019 Report Share Posted January 24, 2019 Yep, agree. I know the Euro isn’t known for tracking clippers as well as systems out of the SW, but there’s no reason to doubt that the Euro is the one to watch.No doubt. If I were you I would not throw in the towel. At this range you are definitely still in the picture.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted January 24, 2019 Report Share Posted January 24, 2019 No doubt. If I were you I would not throw in the towel. At this range you are definitely still in the picture..Meh. If it happens it happens, if not I move on. It’ll snow, just a matter of how much. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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