Grizzcoat Posted January 28, 2019 Report Share Posted January 28, 2019 Per the winds- her was DMX take on them here for Thursday Morning ; An interesting plot twist for Thursday morning is the placement of asfc high over the DMX CWA. This would lighten winds to 5 mph orless, but clear skies... making radiational cooling plausible. Ifthis scenario plays out, Thursday morning temperatures may need tobe lowered another 5 or so degrees... but wind speeds alsodecreased... which would keep wind chill values near the actual airtemperatures. 2 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted January 28, 2019 Report Share Posted January 28, 2019 Forecasted low Tuesday night now down to -29F. MPX saying winds could gust to 30-35mph. Wind chills to -60F possible. Might not get that low here in the metro, but the temp and wind chill will be the lowest I’ve ever felt if they verify. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder98 Posted January 28, 2019 Report Share Posted January 28, 2019 A forecast of -41F for International Falls on Thurs morning! Astonishing! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 28, 2019 Report Share Posted January 28, 2019 The international.falls reading will be nothing compared to some valley locations up there Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 28, 2019 Report Share Posted January 28, 2019 Waterloo forecast is -31 for Thursday morning. Record is -27 in 1918. My God Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gimmesnow Posted January 28, 2019 Report Share Posted January 28, 2019 As much as I dislike the fact that I'll be stuck inside when there's tons of snow outside, it'll be interesting to experience temps this low. I've never felt that before. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 28, 2019 Report Share Posted January 28, 2019 DVN going with a low of -26 here Tuesday night and then -30 on wednesay night. Some pretty strong wording on the latest AFD. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beltrami Island Posted January 28, 2019 Report Share Posted January 28, 2019 Forgot to say this the other day when I saw a post from you, but welcome to the forum! Always nice to have another MN member here. Good luck the next few days up there.Well by Wednesday afternoon I should be in Phoenix. But I have to drive to Fargo first, which may be an adventure through cold and blowing snow... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 28, 2019 Report Share Posted January 28, 2019 This will be one real cold arctic airmass arriving. Highs below zero is a little too cold!! Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 28, 2019 Report Share Posted January 28, 2019 The international.falls reading will be nothing compared to some valley locations up thereYep- the COOP observer at Embarrass has retired. As so is Tower. The new king of Cold id Cotton,MN--- I don't know if this COOP or not and seems to be lacking some QC, but they have used Cotton before for low temps in MN.. -56F. Only 4F from tying the MN record if its was verified. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 28, 2019 Report Share Posted January 28, 2019 This will be one real cold arctic airmass arriving. Highs below zero is a little too cold!! As I get older, I still love the snow but I just don't like or handle the cold very well. This is one airmass that I am glad is missing us to the east. I can see why people move to the south to escape that type of cold. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 28, 2019 Report Share Posted January 28, 2019 As I get older, I still love the snow but I just don't like or handle the cold very well. This is one airmass that I am glad is missing us to the east. I can see why people move to the south to escape that type of cold. I agree...a little too cold. They are saying it hasn't been that cold since 1994. TBH, I am excited to see if we break the all time record low temp here of -21F set back in 1984. Also, never felt this cold airmass b4, so it should be an adventure for me I guess. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 28, 2019 Report Share Posted January 28, 2019 I agree...a little too cold. They are saying it hasn't been that cold since 1994. TBH, I am excited to see if we break the all time record low temp here of -21F set back in 1984. Also, never felt this cold airmass b4, so it should be an adventure for me I guess.I can't even imagine those that would have to work outside in those conditions, police, firefighters, first responders, construction, etc. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 28, 2019 Report Share Posted January 28, 2019 Here’s the DVN’s AFD from this morning: “When this wind combines with an extremely cold Arctic air mass building south with the high, dangerous, life-threatening wind chills will result, especially from Tuesday night through Thursday morning. The current forecast has Tuesday and Wednesday night lows ranging from around -15 F along and south of Highway 34, to around -30 F along the Highway 20 corridor. Forecast highs for Wednesday current range from around -5 F over northeast Missouri, to around -15 F along Highway 20. This will be enough to produce dangerous wind chills ranging from -30 F across the south, to -55 F across the north! If winds are able to go calm Wednesday night and Thursday morning, there is the potential temperatures could drop more than forecast. A Wind Chill Watch remains in effect for the region from Tuesday Afternoon through Thursday Afternoon. Upgrades to these headlines are expected soon. Bottom line...This is a very dangerous, and life-threatening situation. Many impacts are likely, including cars not starting, water main breaks, frozen water pipes/pipes bursting, very quick onset of frostbite and the potential for hypothermia. Additionally, snow covered roadways are not likely to improve as treatments and chemicals will no longer work properly with such cold temperatures. Now is the time to prepare and take proper precautions!” Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 28, 2019 Report Share Posted January 28, 2019 I can't even imagine those that would have to work outside in those conditions, police, firefighters, first responders, construction, etc.True...but if it is that cold, then, hopefully, they do not work and take the day off I would imagine. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 28, 2019 Report Share Posted January 28, 2019 True...but if it is that cold, then, hopefully, they do not work and take the day off I would imagine.I'll take the bitter cold over the nausating heat/humiidty ANYDAY. You can always put on more clothes but can only take so many off. And yes- I used to work outdoors as an Electrical Lineman. 3 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 28, 2019 Report Share Posted January 28, 2019 I'll take the bitter cold over the nausating heat/humiidty ANYDAY. You can always put on more clothes but can only take so many off. And yes- I used to work outdoors as an Electrical Lineman. I hate the humidity. I don't mind dry heat. You can always go in a shade and cool off if its dry heat. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iowawx Posted January 28, 2019 Report Share Posted January 28, 2019 With DVN lowering the forecast low for Cedar Rapids to -31 on Wednesday night, we look to break the record for the coldest temperature ever recorded in Cedar Rapids. I remember the January 2009 cold here. I can't find wind chills in the records for that date, but if I remember right, the lowest wind chill I remember seeing in Cedar Rapids that day was somewhere around -55. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted January 28, 2019 Report Share Posted January 28, 2019 Good stuff: HISTORIC COLD EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING... .Wind chills are expected to fall to 25 below to 35 below zerotonight and Tuesday morning. Dangerous wind chills of 45 below to65 below zero are expected for most of the period from Tuesdaynight through Thursday morning. This is a life-threateningsituation for those spending any prolonged period outdoors withoutproper clothing. A Wind Chill Warning is in effect from Tuesdaythrough Thursday morning area wide. Record low temperatures are possible in the Twin Cities Wednesdaymorning and Thursday morning. The record for Wednesday is30 below and the record for Thursday is 27 below 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 28, 2019 Report Share Posted January 28, 2019 Back in the day I had an ice house on Lake Mille Lacs in Central MN. MN peeps know this lake. Short story - dude that was switching my propane tanks out in the 96' cold wave - wind chills near -80F at the time (pre New formula) said he remembered in 83' doing work in -100F wind chills. No joke. If you do the research - you will see where he was coming from. He warned us that time to leave, or be on your own. It was fun. Not fun in morning. The door on the fish house next morning needed to be JAMMED open due to condensation. Cars started if you had them backed into the wind, otherwise- no luck. True story. 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted January 28, 2019 Report Share Posted January 28, 2019 Back in the day I had an ice house on Lake Mille Lacs in Central MN. MN peeps know this lake. Short story - dude that was switching my propane tanks out in the 96' cold wave - wind chills near -80F at the time (pre New formula) said he remembered in 83' doing work in -100F wind chills. No joke. If you do the research - you will see where he was coming from. He warned us that time to leave, or be on your own. It was fun. Not fun in morning. I’ve been ice fishing on Mille Lacs twice. That’s why i don’t think I’ll ever go ice fishing again. I don’t think I’ve ever been as cold in my life. Didn’t help we didn’t have any heaters, but I digress. There’s something about that lake in the middle of winter that just makes it feel so much colder than it really might be. Totally believe the story from ‘83. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 28, 2019 Report Share Posted January 28, 2019 Back in the day I had an ice house on Lake Mille Lacs in Central MN. MN peeps know this lake. Short story - dude that was switching my propane tanks out in the 96' cold wave - wind chills near -80F at the time (pre New formula) said he remembered in 83' doing work in -100F wind chills. No joke. If you do the research - you will see where he was coming from. He warned us that time to leave, or be on your own. It was fun. Not fun in morning. The door on the fish house next morning needed to be JAMMED open due to condensation. Cars started if you had them backed into the wind, otherwise- no luck. True story.Speaking of new formula. Why did they change that anyway? Always wondered that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 29, 2019 Report Share Posted January 29, 2019 Speaking of new formula. Why did they change that anyway? Always wondered that.I believe scientists changed the calculation because of the way they tested it. Something about them doing tests on a water bottle for a while, and then they changed to actually tests on humans. Maybe I’m way off, but they basically changed the science on testing it, which changed the way it was calculated. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
badgerwx Posted January 29, 2019 Report Share Posted January 29, 2019 So this may be a bit off topic, but I'm curious none the less. Here in Wisconsin, the Governor has issused a State of Emergency for the upcoming days because of the snow and extreme historic cold. If you were a business owner, how would you handle this? Specifically would you shut down for a few days? Allow call ins because of the weather? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 29, 2019 Report Share Posted January 29, 2019 So this may be a bit off topic, but I'm curious none the less. Here in Wisconsin, the Governor has issused a State of Emergency for the upcoming days because of the snow and extreme historic cold. If you were a business owner, how would you handle this? Specifically would you shut down for a few days? Allow call ins because of the weather?Probably depends what kind of business you run, as well as the employees you have. Will it be an issue to show down for a day? How far do people have to drive? What do they do during the day? I definitely think there will be a lot more leeway with call-ins, but it’s more of a situation-by-situation thing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 29, 2019 Report Share Posted January 29, 2019 Here we go.. temp actually held pretty steady for a while, but just dropped 5 degrees between 9-10. Now at 3. Won’t be long before we drop below 0, and we may not get back above that point again until Friday morning. Just crazy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beltrami Island Posted January 29, 2019 Report Share Posted January 29, 2019 Here is the school closing situation for Minnesota at this time. If I had a school age child I wouldn't want them on a rural bus route by Tuesday afternoon. The margin for dangerous conditions for something like a mechanical failure is too small. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted January 29, 2019 Report Share Posted January 29, 2019 dropped 5 degrees from 9 to 4 in the last 30 min! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SE Wisconsin Posted January 29, 2019 Report Share Posted January 29, 2019 One our local mets was stating on the 10pm broadcast that Milwaukee, since 1870, has only recorded seventeen low temps of -20 or below. Two more will be added just this week! Incredible! I'm really looking forward to temps in the 30's this weekend and hitting the x-country ski trails. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder98 Posted January 29, 2019 Report Share Posted January 29, 2019 Wow! NWS now has Thursday’s morning low to -43F. Two nights below -40 in a row. Beyond brutal. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 29, 2019 Report Share Posted January 29, 2019 Here is the school closing situation for Minnesota at this time. If I had a school age child I wouldn't want them on a rural bus route by Tuesday afternoon. The margin for dangerous conditions for something like a mechanical failure is too small.I do agree with that. I’m 100% on board with all cancelations in this stuff. All it takes is one thing to go wrong for things to get bad in a very short time. The potential danger is not worth it. Just making it up another day is a much option than putting kids in danger. On that note, after the temps seemed to not want to drop much earlier, they continue to drop quick. Down to 0 now. Going to be very interesting to see how long we stay below. The only question, I think, will be if we can warm enough during the day on Thursday to go above 0. Our temps have been colder than guidance has predicted over each of the last few days/nights, so I’d side with it not going above 0 (current forecast is -2), but we shall see. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
badgerwx Posted January 29, 2019 Report Share Posted January 29, 2019 KCRG saying Cedar Rapids won't rise about 0 until Friday morning sometime. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 29, 2019 Report Share Posted January 29, 2019 DSM AFD = not messing around- Impacts:THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE LIFE-THREATENING COLD AIR!!! This isthe coldest air many of us will have ever experienced. This isnot a case of "meh, it`s Iowa during winter and this coldhappens." These are record-breaking cold air temperatures, withwind chill values not seen in the 21st century in Iowa. 3 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted January 29, 2019 Report Share Posted January 29, 2019 We’re already at our high temp for the day at -8F, falling to -16F by later this afternoon. Low tonight of -29F with wind gusts to 30mph. I’m supposed to fly to Chicago tomorrow morning but we’ll see. Seems like a good day to stay inside tomorrow with a high of -15F. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 29, 2019 Author Report Share Posted January 29, 2019 We’re already at our high temp for the day at -8F, falling to -16F by later this afternoon. Low tonight of -29F with wind gusts to 30mph. I’m supposed to fly to Chicago tomorrow morning but we’ll see. Seems like a good day to stay inside tomorrow with a high of -15F.Holy cow! The kind of temps you guys up north are going to experience is truly spectacular. Once in a lifetime kinda stuff right there. Stay warm and safe there bud. Hope you stocked up on wood! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 29, 2019 Report Share Posted January 29, 2019 Speaking of new formula. Why did they change that anyway? Always wondered that.They changed it because the old formula used the 10M wind speed in the calculation. Winds today are still measured at 10Meters, but the new formula uses a regression of the wind speed from 10M to 2M -- the human face. From WIKI- North American and United Kingdom wind chill indexIn November 2001, Canada, the United States, and the United Kingdom implemented a new wind chill index developed by scientists and medical experts on the Joint Action Group for Temperature Indices (JAG/TI).[5][6][7] It is determined by iterating a model of skin temperature under various wind speeds and temperatures using standard engineering correlations of wind speed and heat transfer rate. Heat transfer was calculated for a bare face in wind, facing the wind, while walking into it at 1.4 metres per second (5.0 km/h; 3.1 mph). The model corrects the officially measured wind speed to the wind speed at face height, assuming the person is in an open field.[8] 2 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 29, 2019 Report Share Posted January 29, 2019 Thanks for explaining that stuff! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 29, 2019 Report Share Posted January 29, 2019 -2 here. HRRR shows temps being stable for the next few hours until starting to really drop in the early afternoon. The NWS would agree with this as well. Current forecast right now is -27 tonight, with wind chills down to -50. Followed up by a high of -14 tomorrow, and then -30 tomorrow night. I would agree with that as of right now. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 29, 2019 Report Share Posted January 29, 2019 Well, the title on this thread reads correct because here in the Detroit Metro area, wcf has a chance to hit -50F on Wednesday. Highs between -8F to -3F and lows between -21F to -16F in my area and not that far off down in the city of Detroit. Btw: State of Emergency has been declared for Detroit due to extreme historic cold coming. 5 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 29, 2019 Report Share Posted January 29, 2019 Wow! NWS now has Thursday’s morning low to -43F. Two nights below -40 in a row. Beyond brutal. B4C3F1AE-EFD0-40D6-9B41-B20F55C05C00.png Thursday looks warm tho Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.