joaqweri Posted February 6, 2019 Report Share Posted February 6, 2019 GEM is also starting to roll out. GFS out to 78hrs, has precip starting as mixed in seattle on friday afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmet Posted February 6, 2019 Report Share Posted February 6, 2019 GFS showing some strong winds out of the south at 850mb leading to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaqweri Posted February 6, 2019 Report Share Posted February 6, 2019 precip changing over to snow completely by early saturday morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted February 6, 2019 Report Share Posted February 6, 2019 00z gives Seattle 10" by 10 AM Saturday with lots more to come. Just amazing North of Tacoma. EDIT: 14" in Seattle by 4 PM Saturday. Unbelievable. 1 Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted February 6, 2019 Report Share Posted February 6, 2019 Well, congrats Puget Sound on a great GFS run so far! Perhaps more moisture is better for old P-Town? "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VancouverIslandSouth Posted February 6, 2019 Report Share Posted February 6, 2019 That ECMWF map showed about 7-10 inches in parts of Seattle, with 3-6 inches in the PDX area. The map that Cliff Mass posted looked more like 4-7" in Seattle and 4-6" in PDX. Obviously the potential is far greater and wider spread with this one. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Esquimalt Posted February 6, 2019 Report Share Posted February 6, 2019 GEM thru hour 114 has 8 inches in Victoria, Seattle and Portland. Nice! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaqweri Posted February 6, 2019 Report Share Posted February 6, 2019 looking at the gfs closer on weathernerds.org Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 6, 2019 Report Share Posted February 6, 2019 00z gives Seattle 10" by 10 AM Saturday with lots more to come. Just amazing North of Tacoma. That just seems out of sync with the precip maps. It does not even turn over to snow until early Saturday morning in Seattle. Remember that the GFS snowfall totals are often comically overstated. Not saying it won't snow, but we should probably caveat these things for members not familiar with the model biases. **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randyc321 Posted February 6, 2019 Report Share Posted February 6, 2019 00z gives Seattle 10" by 10 AM Saturday with lots more to come. Just amazing North of Tacoma.If this happens as it’s been showing it will be interesting to watch. I’ve never lived on the island during a bid snowfall. East Brem in 2008 and that was pretty shut down. I can only imagine what Bainbridge will be like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted February 6, 2019 Report Share Posted February 6, 2019 I have fir trees protecting me from the sun angle! 28* and expecting awesome model runs that will keep me awake once again Glad to see so many new members ! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaqweri Posted February 6, 2019 Report Share Posted February 6, 2019 gfs has snow in seattle friday afternoon at.... 36F. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Esquimalt Posted February 6, 2019 Report Share Posted February 6, 2019 Graphics? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted February 6, 2019 Report Share Posted February 6, 2019 Jesus the BLI-YWL gradient looks to be 30-32 mb. 2 We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaqweri Posted February 6, 2019 Report Share Posted February 6, 2019 on which model snowmizer? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted February 6, 2019 Report Share Posted February 6, 2019 Jesus the BLI-YWL gradient looks to be 30-32 mb. Little breezy, huh? "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 6, 2019 Report Share Posted February 6, 2019 Sunday morning on the 00Z GFS looks just like yesterday evening. **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VancouverIslandSouth Posted February 6, 2019 Report Share Posted February 6, 2019 That low is really stalling out on the GFS, looks amazing over a wide area. The GFS has been very consistent on a major snow event Friday - Saturday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaqweri Posted February 6, 2019 Report Share Posted February 6, 2019 gfs has seattle reaching a more reasonable temp for snow 4am saturday, around 32-33F 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
runninthruda206 Posted February 6, 2019 Report Share Posted February 6, 2019 Jesus the BLI-YWL gradient looks to be 30-32 mb.Can you explain this to me? That’s pretty crazy right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaqweri Posted February 6, 2019 Report Share Posted February 6, 2019 bottom line, gfs has precip in seattle from 00z saturday (4pm friday) until 18z sunday (10am) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted February 6, 2019 Report Share Posted February 6, 2019 on which model snowmizer?gfs 1 We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 6, 2019 Report Share Posted February 6, 2019 And just for perspective... the 12Z ECMWF showed a temperature of 30 degrees in Seattle on Friday afternoon at 4 p.m. with the precip starting as snow. **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bueryan Posted February 6, 2019 Report Share Posted February 6, 2019 00Z GFS at hr 90-96 shows snow from Canada to California. Beautiful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted February 6, 2019 Report Share Posted February 6, 2019 Well, at least Portland gets 2-4 inches from the GFS. Thus far. (Might be less, I'm only going by face value) 1 "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Esquimalt Posted February 6, 2019 Report Share Posted February 6, 2019 That low is really stalling out on the GFS, looks amazing over a wide area. The GFS has been very consistent on a major snow event Friday - Saturday. Weathernerds map is showing 10 inches for essentially all of the south island including all of Victoria. Can't wait to see what that does to traffic in the city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted February 6, 2019 Report Share Posted February 6, 2019 Sunday morning on the 00Z GFS looks just like yesterday evening. The 00z GFS trended towards the EURO. It shows all snow for the I-5 corridor by Saturday 4pm. It shows cold gorge east winds down here by Saturday night. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted February 6, 2019 Report Share Posted February 6, 2019 The 00z GFS trended towards the EURO. It shows all snow for the I-5 corridor by Saturday 4pm. It shows cold gorge east winds down here by Saturday night. 1 "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaqweri Posted February 6, 2019 Report Share Posted February 6, 2019 alright 00z gfs. 10-12" for seattle still Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jbolin Posted February 6, 2019 Report Share Posted February 6, 2019 Jesus the BLI-YWL gradient looks to be 30-32 mb.Holyshit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted February 6, 2019 Report Share Posted February 6, 2019 Can you explain this to me? That’s pretty crazy right?Its the barometric pressure difference between bellingham and the northern side of the bc mountains where the fraser river flows. The higher the pressure difference the stronger the wind. We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaqweri Posted February 6, 2019 Report Share Posted February 6, 2019 gfsjesus harold christ, i see it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VancouverIslandSouth Posted February 6, 2019 Report Share Posted February 6, 2019 Wow, this is getting ridiculous: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaqweri Posted February 6, 2019 Report Share Posted February 6, 2019 euro is still 1 1/2 hours away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Esquimalt Posted February 6, 2019 Report Share Posted February 6, 2019 Its the barometric pressure difference between bellingham and the northern side of the bc mountains where the fraser river flows. The higher the pressure difference the stronger the wind. Those are gonna be some damaging outflow winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted February 6, 2019 Report Share Posted February 6, 2019 Can you explain this to me? That’s pretty crazy right?The legendary 1989 blast was 24mb. The also legendary 1990 December blasts were 25mb. So this would be unbelievable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmet Posted February 6, 2019 Report Share Posted February 6, 2019 The warm nose is only 50mb deep near the surface on the GFS and is at most 2 degrees F from freezing. With heavy precip this is easily just all snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaqweri Posted February 6, 2019 Report Share Posted February 6, 2019 Those are gonna be some damaging outflow winds.if it comes in while snow is still dumping, we could see blowing snow and maybe even blizzard conditions in spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted February 6, 2019 Report Share Posted February 6, 2019 I would be shocked if anyplace north if Olympia have any rain at all. We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaqweri Posted February 6, 2019 Report Share Posted February 6, 2019 The warm nose is only 50mb deep near the surface on the GFS and is at most 2 degrees F from freezing. With heavy precip this is easily just all snow.yeah. evaporative cooling would likely take care of the temps with pushing them back down to freezing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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