Guest Sounder Posted February 7, 2019 Report Share Posted February 7, 2019 I like how the GFS has it changing from rain to snow from south to north, switching Eugene and Salem over before Portland and Kelso, lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest hawkstwelve Posted February 7, 2019 Report Share Posted February 7, 2019 GFS shows 4 inches falling in DT Seattle between 4-10AM Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Sounder Posted February 7, 2019 Report Share Posted February 7, 2019 SEA up to 11" by 4pm Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted February 7, 2019 Report Share Posted February 7, 2019 Icon and gfs show steady snow falling for 20-24hrs around the sound. We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 7, 2019 Report Share Posted February 7, 2019 GFS shows 4 inches falling in DT Seattle between 4-10AM Saturday. Still way too dry out here. Overestimating east wind. It will be wrong again like it was on Sunday night. **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prairiedog Posted February 7, 2019 Report Share Posted February 7, 2019 From Mark Nelsen. Some reference to Steve Pierce's rant today. It's that type of hyperbole I often refer to that gets people worked up and then their hopes and dreams crash and burn. Maybe it will happen, maybe it won't. Have to wait and see. Because models always do so poorly with snow total forecasting well ahead of time, as meteorologists we typically don’t give specific snow forecasts until about 2 days out. For example for this last snow event, at one point 4 days ahead of time some models were showing 4-6″! Luckily I didn’t jump on that (shoot a graphic out to Twitter) and once we got within two days of the event we started giving you that general Trace to 2″ forecast. To summarize, we don’t yet know if this will be just a light snow event with an inch or two on Saturday & Saturday night or does Portland turn into a snowy, cold, hell with 5″ on the ground by evening. It’s too early and models disagree, so anyone telling you exactly how much snow is going to fall Saturday is either making a little Click-Bait or being a bit irresponsible. No one knows yet how much snow is going to fall (or not fall) on Saturday.But we all have lives to plan right? That includes me, so… HERE’S WHAT WE DO KNOWThere’s a good chance, from the Portland metro area north into Washington, snow starts sticking at some point Saturday and we get a snow storm as a cold system drops down the coastline. By late in the day, cold Gorge wind will likely begin to freeze up roads/streets. It’s too early to know if that’s just central/east metro closer to Gorge or if the entire metro area freezes up quickly in the afternoon. You may need to alter your plans for the 2nd half of Saturday and into Sunday because… Models are all consistent showing that cold Gorge wind spreading over entire metro area by Sunday morning and freezing solid whatever falls (regardless of snow amount). Sunday we likely stay frozen, thus altering your travel plans for that day too There will likely be another snow event sometime between Sunday night and Tuesday; each model is VERY different at this point. Some say very little and slightly too warm, others give us a ton of snow. The Columbia River Gorge, westside elevations above 1,000′, and Cowlitz/Columbia counties north are in the “snow business” from Friday night until further notice. Friday night through early next week have the potential of bringing MANY inches of snow in those areas. WHAT WE DON’T KNOW YETHow much snow will fall Saturday…just an inch? or a real Portland snowstorm with many inches and a cold east wind drifting that around? No one knows yet Exactly when roads in the lowest elevations could freeze up Saturday, or does it just wait until Saturday evening when colder east wind arrives? We’ve got two more days to figure that out. Details about what happens beyond Sunday. Some models are mainly dry, others bring a big slug of snow in for Monday morning’s commute. Others say no real snow until Monday night. One says slightly too warm with mild southerly breeze Monday midday through Tuesday afternoon in much of metro area (ECMWF). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 7, 2019 Report Share Posted February 7, 2019 This is going to be one winter wonderland of a weekend in the Seattle area. It's pretty much a given now. It starts in 48 hours. **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Esquimalt Posted February 7, 2019 Report Share Posted February 7, 2019 Still way too dry out here. Overestimating east wind. It will be wrong again like it was on Sunday night.Do you think it’s underestimating snowfall out here too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaqweri Posted February 7, 2019 Report Share Posted February 7, 2019 as expected, 00z GFS is still going with a foot for seattle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted February 7, 2019 Report Share Posted February 7, 2019 Still way too dry out here. Overestimating east wind. It will be wrong again like it was on Sunday night.They always do that with these systems. I remember the WRF predicting less than an inch for North Bend with the huge 12/20/08 storm too. I don't notice the same issue with rainy systems usually. I guess there is just more often some dry Easterly flow during snow events. Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest hawkstwelve Posted February 7, 2019 Report Share Posted February 7, 2019 Still way too dry out here. Overestimating east wind. It will be wrong again like it was on Sunday night. I think you are spot on with this statement. East winds are not shown to get above 10 knots in the EPSL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 7, 2019 Report Share Posted February 7, 2019 Do you think it’s underestimating snowfall out here too? No idea about there... I just know it will be wrong out here. **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted February 7, 2019 Report Share Posted February 7, 2019 -32 at Chicago's Aurora Muni. Airport last week was one of the most impressive cold readings in modern US history, IMO. A little random, but I'm looking through some numbers right now. Plenty of impressive gems from that. 1 A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest hawkstwelve Posted February 7, 2019 Report Share Posted February 7, 2019 And finally by 4PM Saturday, when precip has mostly ended... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaqweri Posted February 7, 2019 Report Share Posted February 7, 2019 00z UW GFS is also rolling out now. 4km res out to 18hrs now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted February 7, 2019 Report Share Posted February 7, 2019 Wave-2 is a bit slower on the 00z so far. Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted February 7, 2019 Report Share Posted February 7, 2019 And finally by 4PM Saturday, when precip has mostly ended... Good for Puget Sound. "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 7, 2019 Report Share Posted February 7, 2019 They always do that with these systems. I remember the WRF predicting less than an inch for North Bend with the huge 12/20/08 storm too. I don't notice the same issue with rainy systems usually. I guess there is just more often some dry Easterly flow during snow events. I remember that too... it showed 90 mph wind and hardly any snow., In reality we had about 40 mph wind in the valley and hardly any wind up here and about half a foot of snow that night. **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VancouverIslandSouth Posted February 7, 2019 Report Share Posted February 7, 2019 No idea about there... I just know it will be wrong out here. It's still 2 days away. Pretty much everything any model is showing right now will be wrong to some extent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted February 7, 2019 Report Share Posted February 7, 2019 Might be better for your mental health if you take a break. Eh, its a disappointing map for Portlanders. This isn't just a Puget Sound forum. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 7, 2019 Report Share Posted February 7, 2019 Awesome time lapse of yesterday in North Bend... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h7fOEmU8pUg Watching the clouds and wind patterns is fascinating when its sped up like that. **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted February 7, 2019 Report Share Posted February 7, 2019 Might be better for your mental health if you take a break. I mean, Portland gets shunted (on that particular run), there's reason to be a bit disappointed. You guys up north have basically no reason to worry, you're positively guaranteed at least a few inches of snow. 1 "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted February 7, 2019 Report Share Posted February 7, 2019 Wave-2 is a bit slower on the 00z so far. I think the writing is already on the wall here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted February 7, 2019 Report Share Posted February 7, 2019 Huge adjustment in the wave axis..much colder air around by hr102. But it also slows down the follow-up system. Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lars43 Posted February 7, 2019 Report Share Posted February 7, 2019 Yeah, my daughter is a freshman at UW as well. I happen to live 250 miles away and she is my oldest. Loving her independence and we are are thrilled about that. Shows you how little control we, as parents, actually have. My heart breaks for her family. My oldest son is a freshman at Oregon State, its so hard to let them go. They just grow up WAY to fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted February 7, 2019 Report Share Posted February 7, 2019 I think the writing is already on the wall here.It might be a case of delayed, not denied. 2 Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 7, 2019 Report Share Posted February 7, 2019 No epic snowstorm on the 00Z GFS yet on Monday afternoon... **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted February 7, 2019 Report Share Posted February 7, 2019 No epic snowstorm on the 00Z GFS yet on Monday afternoon... Lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted February 7, 2019 Report Share Posted February 7, 2019 No epic snowstorm on the 00Z GFS yet on Monday afternoon... "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VancouverIslandSouth Posted February 7, 2019 Report Share Posted February 7, 2019 Huge adjustment in the wave axis..much colder air around by hr102. But it also slows down the follow-up system. It's just holding back a bit so that low can pick up more moisture on its way down from the BC North Coast. It'll hit on Wednesday and ruin my office laser tag event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted February 7, 2019 Report Share Posted February 7, 2019 Yikes. Let's hope the Euro holds its ground. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted February 7, 2019 Report Share Posted February 7, 2019 Bellingham and Quillayute broke their record lows today. 19 and 18 degrees respectively. Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted February 7, 2019 Report Share Posted February 7, 2019 That was fast 1 Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaqweri Posted February 7, 2019 Report Share Posted February 7, 2019 euro is 1 1/2 hrs away. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 7, 2019 Report Share Posted February 7, 2019 The GFS is much colder this weekend than previous runs. 850s drop to -11. Still a lot of snow for the Puget Sound region. Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted February 7, 2019 Report Share Posted February 7, 2019 Bellingham and Quillayute broke their record lows today. 19 and 18 degrees respectively. At very least we had a solid early February cool snap in a winter that was looking dead in the water just a few weeks ago. And worst case scenario is it ends with another big event up north this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alex_Snakes Posted February 7, 2019 Report Share Posted February 7, 2019 206 users. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andrew. Posted February 7, 2019 Report Share Posted February 7, 2019 GEM says screws the GFS, dumps on PDX 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted February 7, 2019 Report Share Posted February 7, 2019 GEM says screws the GFS, dumps on PDX FB_IMG_1549512619801.jpg Then again, it's the GEM. "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 7, 2019 Report Share Posted February 7, 2019 Bellingham and Quillayute broke their record lows today. 19 and 18 degrees respectively. Nice. This is solidly cold for this time of year. Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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