February 2019 Weather in the Pacific Northwest - Part 1

[Jbolin]

Thank you. Everyone south of Olympia shudders at that analog.

Why, because everyone south of KOLM as well as Clark county and PDX didn't get to experience collapsing roofs and long drawn out diatribes with their insurance adjuster/s?

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Much different pattern than 96. Better for everyone.

Yeah this coming event is going to potentially bring significant onshore flow snow to the valley. Feels rare but I imagine it happened a lot more in the past.

[MossMan]

Much different pattern than 96. Better for everyone.

Not going to turn to heavy rain after 2 feet of snow falls in a 12hr period. Way different than 1996! If it’s Dec 1996 we are talking about anyway. Jan 1996 was great as well but for only a week and only a foot of snow.

[SeanNyberg]

3 more hours for 00z ... why am I nervous? LOL

[TT-SEA]

Not going to turn to heavy rain after 2 feet of snow falls in a 12hr period. Way different than 1996! If it’s Dec 1996 we are talking about anyway. Jan 1996 was great as well but for only a week and only a foot of snow.

 

 

I was just going to say that... I get the 1996 reference in terms of total snow but that was a completely different scenario and this will be nothing like that event.  

[TigerWoodsLibido]

[SeanNyberg]

It’s like a ballgame. I love it

 

It's like the days leading up to an election (not to get political, please don't get political! LOL) ... but it feels like that. Like everything is set and looks good, but you are just WAITING for something to come in last minute to throw a wrench in it. LOL

[Guest Sounder]

I was just going to say that... I get the 1996 reference in terms of total snow but that was a completely different scenario and this will be nothing like that event.

Remember that Cliff Mass is writing his blog posts to be geared more for the average layman who doesn't know much if anything about the dynamics behind why an event is happening. Most people will never know or care about the differences between various set ups, he just wants to compare it to an event with similar totals because that's what matters as far as what one observes on the ground. A foot of snow is a foot of snow regardless of where the cold air and moisture came from.

[Deweydog]

Temperature FALLING here.

[GobBluth]

#pullback

would love to read the explanation for that.

[TT-SEA]

Remember that Cliff Mass is writing his blog posts to be geared more for the average layman who doesn't know much if anything about the dynamics behind why an event is happening. Most people will never know or care about the differences between various set ups, he just wants to compare it to an event with similar totals because that's what matters as far as what one observes on the ground. A foot of snow is a foot of snow regardless of where the cold air and moisture came from.

 

I understand.

 

But a huge aspect of the 1996 event was the heavy rain that immediately followed and subsequent damage it caused.    That probably sticks in people's minds as well and that will not be part of this event.     He might have mentioned that important difference.  

[Deweydog]

would love to read the explanation for that.

He kinda lost it yesterday after an irrationally cold edition of the Euro.

[bainbridgekid]

What's with the snow hole near Whidbey/Camano? I'm assuming it's just a model fluke.

Ignore it. It is a model fluke. It thinks that area is under water and never shows snow there basically. 

[Jbolin]

Oook

[runninthruda206]

Oof. NWS going with 2-3” for DT

[runninthruda206]

“This storm has wider range of possibilities”

[runninthruda206]

NWS just posted a special weather statement for western WA calling for just 3-4 inches in the metro area by Saturday night. Wonder why they’re so modest and where is the winter storm watch?!

I think they just don’t want there to be outrage if people stocked up and there was a fat bust. Better to underestimate

[Front Ranger]

Looks like SEA ended up with 37/20 today. Hopefully they can stay below 40 tomorrow and keep that streak going.

[runninthruda206]

D**n they’re saying all rain throughout the day Friday? We’ll see

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

There snow totals are based off the thinking of rain in the beginning. If it does rain in places it will turn to snow real quick. I dont think there will be rain north of Olympia.

[TT-SEA]

Looks like SEA ended up with 37/20 today. Hopefully they can stay below 40 tomorrow and keep that streak going.

 

 

12Z ECMWF says 35 at SEA tomorrow... probably due to more clouds ahead of next system.

[epiceast]

Oof. NWS going with 2-3” for DT

While every other location in seattle has 4-6". Clearly they are adjusting the numbers from real forecast slightly to not have any yellow paint over populated parts of the metro, and have a weak 2-3" where people will look first. Little psychological tricks by Seattle NWS to prevent PNWers from panicking. 

[seattleweatherguy]

12Z ECMWF says 35 at SEA tomorrow... probably due to more clouds ahead of next system.

Hope it's right more chances for snow if starts colder

[Front Ranger]

I understand.

 

But a huge aspect of the 1996 event was the heavy rain that immediately followed and subsequent damage it caused.    That probably sticks in people's minds as well and that will not be part of this event.     He might have mentioned that important difference.  

 

The first big Dec 1996 storm in Seattle dumped 6-12" in the city and was not followed by rain. I believe the city overall got around 15-25" of snow that month. 

 

As far as total snowfall, Dec 2008 was pretty close to Dec 1996, but none of the snowfalls were as heavy as the two monsters in 1996.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

There is a good chance these totals will be double.

[Blizzard777]

By 5pm back to freezing

Currently 31 and down she goes

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Still 40. Should hopefully drop below freezing as there are now clear skies.

[Guest hawkstwelve]

I just had an interesting conversation with a co-worker who, annoyingly, was looking over my shoulder and saw I was looking at the NWS site.

 

Co-worker: "Hey, how much are they calling for?"

Me: "Looks like 3-4 inches."

Co-worker: "Are these the same people who called for only an inch or two last weekend?"

Me: "Uh... Yes, yes it is."

Co-worker: "Ha, figures. So we should really expect 6-8 inches right?"

 

I just looked at him and smiled.

[Cloud]

NWS is clearly being conservative once again with the totals... calling for 3-4” and I believe this is a tactic to prevent people from panicking as this is on the best case scenario for everyone no doubt their number will adjust within the next 48 hours

[runninthruda206]

NWS is clearly being conservative once again with the totals... calling for 3-4” and I believe this is a tactic to prevent people from panicking as this is on the best case scenario for everyone no doubt their number will adjust within the next 48 hours

I hope so

[TT-SEA]

NWS is clearly being conservative once again with the totals... calling for 3-4” and I believe this is a tactic to prevent people from panicking as this is on the best case scenario for everyone no doubt their number will adjust within the next 48 hours

 

The ECMWF only shows 1-2 inches more.   Its not a huge difference.  

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

If the nam ups totals tonight there forecast will change i bet.

[TT-SEA]

If the nam ups totals tonight there forecast will change i bet.

 

Based on the NAM?   

 

No.

 

They will wait for the ECMWF.    They are not completely clueless.

[Requiem]

Mark Nelsen also apparently calling for at least 4-6. I mean, most models show that. PDX will be in the borderline for this one, and I think Monday-Tuesday has more potential.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Based on the NAM?   

 

No.

 

They will wait for the ECMWF.    They are not completely clueless.

Go read Jay Albrecht tweets.

[antipex]

Down to 30 here already. With east wind coming tomorrow and dewpoints already low I have a hard time believing we will see much rain on Friday...

[Front Ranger]

There is a good chance these totals will be double.

 

Agreed, at least for some areas. Several models have the Puget Sound bulls eye right over Seattle. 6-12" is not out of the question for the greater metro area, especially if precip can start off as snow on Friday (good chance it will).

 

As Cliff Mass said, it's about as classic a setup you can get for the region to see a major snowstorm. Best since January 2012.

[Cloud]

The ECMWF only shows 1-2 inches more. Its not a huge difference.

As I said, best case scenario they could hope for... i know the Euro calls for 4-5” but we saw from the last storm as more variables comes into play the snow totals changes.

 

I think what’s impacting the NWS for 3-4” call is they seem to think the precip will start out as rain.

[TT-SEA]

Go read Jay Albrecht tweets.

 

 

There is no way they will just up the totals based on the 00Z NAM with the 00Z ICON, GFS, FV3, and ECMWF coming out in that order immediately after.

 

They will wait to see what all the models show tonight to see if there is new consensus.  

[joaqweri]

really confused with the seattle NWS currently. they WAY underestimated amounts last weekend, and they issued winter weather advisories and winter storm warnings as the event was occuring. they should've shown the actual expected amounts instead a dull 2-3". they estimated 1-2" for seattle the day before last weekend's event, much of the city ended up with 3-4".