February 2019 Weather in the Pacific Northwest - Part 1

[Guest hawkstwelve]

More snow falls across Western WA starting late Sunday night.

 

This map is from 10PM Sunday - 10PM Monday.

 

[Deweydog]

FV3 was touted recently as being the first model to pick up on this unimaginable madness...

[TT-SEA]

FV-3 is radically different than any other model early next week. Not in a good way.

 

 

Not radically different in the big picture... maybe 200 miles west of the ECMWF on day 6.    But this results in a HUGE difference in our weather.   

Buried in snow or relatively warm southerly flow.

 

FV3:

 

 

 

ECMWF:

 

[jakeinthevalley]

Speak into the microphone squid brain!

Yes, but I may have screwed it up. I think it was a 50 year storm

[Guest hawkstwelve]

And finally, totals from 4PM Friday to 4PM Monday. Many places over a foot with Kitsap area nearing or just crossing 2 feet.

 

[Requiem]

So, hopefully better for OR than January 2012. Which was not awful, but definitely not that major.

[Deweydog]

I'll bump it up if this thing busts. It's from 2014, so new people won't get the inside jokes.

It was brilliant work and deserves being resurrected.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

So, hopefully better for OR than January 2012. Which was not awful, but definitely not that major.

 

This looks a lot more impressive further south than that one. Esp with lows persistently sliding offshore towards Cape Blanco with occasional banding moving down the valley.

[Guest hawkstwelve]

Seattle afternoon AFD is mostly a regurgitation of previous AFD. Meh.

[Deweydog]

So, hopefully better for OR than January 2012. Which was not awful, but definitely not that major.

This is a completely different setup. May not end up major but it won’t be for the reasons that one was fairly low impact down here.

[Randyc321]

Screenshot (185).png

afternoon FV3 run going with 8-12" in seattle, at least 6" for most of the sound region

 

d**n!  That basically put Bainbridge at ground zero on the sound. There aren't enough plows on the island to handle that.  That is 20" here.  How did this model do with totals last weekend?

[Prairiedog]

Ensemble coming in bottoming out at -9.5C over the weekend at PDX. During that time the operational is the warmest member of the ensemble suite. In fact its out through the 14th now and the operational is at or above the mean the entire time. 

Is that with or without any Gorge influence?  Is that for the 850's?

[Guest hawkstwelve]

Nice improvement in the LR on the 18z GFS ensembles. Quite a few members end up between -10/-15c.

 

Mean doesn't cross -5c until February 21st or 22nd.

 

[Randyc321]

And finally, totals from 4PM Friday to 4PM Monday. Many places over a foot with Kitsap area nearing or just crossing 2 feet.

 

Send food, please.  Luckily I live within walking distance of the ferry.  If I need something I can hop over there, unless Seattle is shut down too.  Ok, send food, please.  

[Deweydog]

It's the 18z FV3-GFS with a weird and so far unsupported evolution. Worth an eyebrow raised, and maybe something more if the 12z tomorrow looks the same.

Nice micro aggression against the 0z and 6z.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

EUG got to 42.  Seasonably cool day.

[ewnichols25]

And finally, totals from 4PM Friday to 4PM Monday. Many places over a foot with Kitsap area nearing or just crossing 2 feet.

 

What's with the snow hole near Whidbey/Camano? I'm assuming it's just a model fluke.

[Blizzard777]

If you got full sun exposure today your snow said see ya!

In the shade snow held it ground

 

Edit: precipitation from left over snow melting in the bucket

[luterra]

Meteostar is goofed up today; trying to get a good local output from the 18z. 

 

The region is not going to shut down, for long anyway.  It only takes some filtered February sunshine at 30 degrees to melt off the main roads and runways, and highs are still at or above freezing for the western lowlands throughout these events.

 

Sun is finally out here in Corvallis, making a run at 40 degrees but don't think it will make it.

[TT-SEA]

If you got full sun exposure today your snow said see ya!

In the shade snow held it ground

 

 

I had full sun here all day and nothing melted.    Not even off the trees.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just read the Portland AFD. Basically they expect bands setting up Saturday PM that will drop 1-3" of snow to sea level, but they have no idea where this may occur. RIght now they are thinking 3-6" for the foothills and coast range Friday night.

[Deweydog]

Just read the Portland AFD. Basically they expect bands setting up Saturday PM that will drop 1-3" of snow to sea level, but they have no idea where this may occur. RIght now they are thinking 3-6" for the foothills and coast range Friday night.

Seems a reasonable guess.

[jakeinthevalley]

I had full sun here all day and nothing melted.    Not even off the trees.  

Too warm

[Blizzard777]

I had full sun here all day and nothing melted.    Not even off the trees.  

Just drove down to Rustin Point to have lunch. Noticed all the green lawns where sun was shining. It did get above freezing down here as well....what was your high temp today?

[SeanNyberg]

Interesting how the 3:30PM AFD for Seatle/Metro totally avoids even attempting snowfall totals. LOL!

I get it - why go on the record this early, but with the very real potential of this being significant I am surprised they didn't even sneak in a "Some models are pointing to a foot for the Seattle area, but others are suggesting significantly less" ... wussies!  

*I'm joking - they work their booties off for our benefit!  Just found it funny.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like a 39/23 at PDX today. Good for a -12 departure. 

 

Looks like a high of 38 at SLE today 42 at EUG as TWL mentioned.

[Blizzard777]

This is how Whisky barrel falls looks so far....going to be interesting by the end of this cold spell

[TT-SEA]

Just drove down to Rustin Point to have lunch. Noticed all the green lawns where sun was shining. It did get above freezing down here as well....what was your high temp today?

34 in North Bend... probably 31 up here. Air mass is really dry though and snow cover is deep. Can't tell much change from this morning. If we only had an inch of snow then I bet it would have melted off in the sun.

[joaqweri]

d**n!  That basically put Bainbridge at ground zero on the sound. There aren't enough plows on the island to handle that.  That is 20" here.  How did this model do with totals last weekend?

FV3 didn't do too bad. forecasted 4-5" for seattle and I ended the event with 4". definitely keeping my eye on the fv3 and the parent gfs with them showing such huge snowfall.

[Silverfin]

Used a break in the weather to go for a beautiful run in the Bellingham sun. Only needed two long sleeve shirts and tights. 

 

Went biking myself...to stock up on groceries.

[joaqweri]

water gridding 

not the olympic precip shadow?

[Guest hawkstwelve]

FWIW, 18z 3km NAM is pretty dry for the Seattle area through 10PM Friday.

 

It'll probably be playing catch-up over the next day or two leading up to the event. It's not the best in this range but performs more admirably when we get closer to crunch time.

 

[Jbolin]

And finally, totals from 4PM Friday to 4PM Monday. Many places over a foot with Kitsap area nearing or just crossing 2 feet.

 

This is just getting stupid now

 

1996 here we come

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

This is just getting stupid now

1996 here we come

Much different pattern than 96. Better for everyone.

[Jesse]

Much different pattern than 96. Better for everyone.

Thank you. Everyone south of Olympia shudders at that analog.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Incredible!

 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Update from Steve Pierce on his Facebook page. Looks like he's pretty confident PDX Metro switches to snow sometime around 10pm to midnight Friday night. He says snow picks up Friday overnight and that it should be snowing quite well by the time we wake up Saturday. He says 4" to 6" might be conservative.

 

https://www.facebook.com/stevepiercekoin6/

[Jesse]

Incredible!

 

#pullback

[TT-SEA]

I see Bellingham made it to 37 today and most of the snow is gone in town.   I am sure its a different story south of town though.

 

[Deweydog]

#pullback

Somebody flipped from the frosted side of the mini wheat.