February 2019 Weather in the Pacific Northwest - Part 1

[Timmy]

The Portland NWS forecast seems EXTREMELY conservative.

 

Yet they'll issue winter storm warnings in November with 850mb temps above freezing.

give them a day, I feel like who ever wrote that is trying to hold off the chaos a bit longer. "check back for changes" doesn't get put on their statements usually.

[Kayla]

Not sure if its been posted yet. The 12z EPS mean snows 13" at PDX and 12" at SEA over the next 15 days. That's extremely impressive for a mean forecast.

[Deweydog]

give them a day, I feel like who ever wrote that is trying to hold off the chaos a bit longer. "check back for changes" doesn't get put on their statements usually.

32 and 34 are worlds apart.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Sun FINALLY trying to come out here in Salem.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I'll await the AFD to see if they explain their reasoning before rendering judgment. 

[Esquimalt]

FV3 now showing 3 inches here. Man I hope it’s wrong. It’s showing extremely strong outflow conditions

[BhamMe]

Used a break in the weather to go for a beautiful run in the Bellingham sun. Only needed two long sleeve shirts and tights. 

[Perturbed Member]

How soon until someone pulls out the old Hitler parody?

 

Is that thing still around? Couldn't find it. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

22 and sunny at Pendleton...They have a shot at 0 tonight.

[Slade]

Not sure if it's been mentioned yet but.... Victoria finally broke its streak of 1823 days with a high greater than zero.

[ewnichols25]

Looking forward to skiing in the city this weekend.

[Deweydog]

30+ degree spread at Pasco today.

[jakeinthevalley]

Is that thing still around? Couldn't find it.

I think it's in the same file as the Gorton Fisherman meme

[luvssnow_spokane]

I got down to a legit 14 last night. Old news, I know!

[Timmy]

this is nice 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Ensemble coming in bottoming out at -9.5C over the weekend at PDX. During that time the operational is the warmest member of the ensemble suite. In fact its out through the 14th now and the operational is at or above the mean the entire time. 

[Jbolin]

Looking forward to skiing in the city this weekend.

Do it before the local hills become inevitable icy death traps

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Not sure if it's been mentioned yet but.... Victoria finally broke its streak of 1823 days with a high greater than zero.

 

WOW

[Timmy]

Not sure if it's been mentioned yet but.... Victoria finally broke its streak of 1823 days with a high greater than zero.

0 is really cold so that makes sense...

[GHweatherChris]

Not sure if it's been mentioned yet but.... Victoria finally broke its streak of 1823 days with a high greater than zero.

0c?

[TT-SEA]

WOW

 

 

I am pretty sure we are running a streak of at least 150 years with a high above 0 here.   

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I am pretty sure we are running a streak of at least 150 years with a high above 0 here.   

 

CELSIUS.

[joaqweri]

0 is really cold so that makes sense...

victoria is in canada. canada uses celsius. 0c is 32f. logic.

[Deweydog]

I am pretty sure we are running a streak of at least 150 years with a high above 0 here.

55,000 days sounds lot more impressive.

[Timmy]

victoria is in canada. canada uses celsius. 0c is 32f. logic.

 OH CANADUH!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just looked up Februaries record snowfall for PDX. Looks like in the Airport era it is 13.2" in 1949. Seems like low hanging fruit.

[Timmy]

Why stop there?

 

different model

[Slade]

0 is really cold so that makes sense...

Sorry Timmy, I should have been more clear, 0c

[Phil]

different model

D*mmit you beat me to the delete.

[joaqweri]

afternoon FV3 run going with 8-12" in seattle, at least 6" for most of the sound region

[joaqweri]

Screenshot (185).png

afternoon FV3 run going with 8-12" in seattle, at least 6" for most of the sound region

also not forgetting our PDX friends, currently going with a good 6-8" for you guys

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Ensemble coming in bottoming out at -9.5C over the weekend at PDX. During that time the operational is the warmest member of the ensemble suite. In fact its out through the 14th now and the operational is at or above the mean the entire time. 

 

I'm guessing more modest for the central and south valley?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

FV-3 is radically different than any other model early next week. Not in a good way.

[jakeinthevalley]

I'm thinking this will be on the same level of the 100 year storm that hit Bell's Beach.

 

(movie reference)

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I'm guessing more modest for the central and south valley?

 

Yeah 850s bottom out at -9C on the mean for Salem. So pretty similar. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Yeah 850s bottom out at -9C on the mean for Salem. So pretty similar. 

 

And -8 ball in EUG?

[SeanNyberg]

Went to the gym to burn a couple hours. Going to post a forecast on my Facebook page based on these afternoon model runs.

Man - this is going to be a very interesting weekend (well - week). Surprised to see the snow totals not being slashed in these most current models.

It’s also crazy to see so much agreement in the setup of this thing. Obviously there is uncertainty on snow totals. But being 48 hours out and having this much agreement on a big weather event of any kind in the PNW is really rare.

Also. It’s been my experience that snow total forecasts aren’t super reliable until about 12-24 hours out. I think the totals in these models are good to know potential. But really shouldn’t be taken as gospel until Friday morning.

[Phil]

FV-3 is radically different than any other model early next week. Not in a good way.

Basically pulled a 12z GFS. For now it’s on its own.

 

There aren’t many 12z EPS members than take that route either..a minority of them do but it’s not many.

[Guest hawkstwelve]

Mr. Snowmizer and the Kitsap/Hood Canal area are the clear winners on the 18z FV3. There is a heavy band that sits over them from Saturday AM until Saturday afternoon.

 

It's kind of odd to say they are "winners" over everyone else even when the majority of other people get 6-8 inches but it's February 2019 so 6 is the new 2.

 

[Deweydog]

I'm thinking this will be on the same level of the 100 year storm that hit Bell's Beach.

 

(movie reference)

Speak into the microphone squid brain!