February 2019 Weather in the Pacific Northwest - Part 1

[Guest hawkstwelve]

Just getting a chance to look at the Euro and uh, yeah. No words.

 

For the Sound...

 

From 4PM Friday - 4PM Saturday: 4-6 inches

From 4AM Monday - 4AM Tuesday: 8-12 inches

From 4AM Tuesday - 4AM Wednesday: 2-4 inches

From 10AM Thursday - 10AM Friday: 1-3 inches (more on the coast)

 

Pretty much one day break between each system (Sunday, Wednesday). Simply incredible.

[runninthruda206]

Hey does this website work for you guys on computer lol it never loads for me. Only on mobile

[SeanNyberg]

For those in the Seattle area - how many times have we heard "this is an isolated event, NOT a widespread snow event!"

I feel like 98% of the time they hit us with that line. I mean, it is normally absolutely correct, but I would always long for a widespread snow event like we would get in the late 80s and early 90s.

Looks like that dream is coming true!  While exact amounts may vary, it seems (no jinxing here) that this might (some hedging) be a rare widespread potential (some more hedging) snow event!

**Wow - almost took my breath away to write that! Even though it's still early and things can and will change (one more for good measure)**

[TigerWoodsLibido]

37 at EUG 40 in Springfield.

 

Should be able to get in some highs in the 30s over the coming days.

[The Swamp]

I just hope the swamp starts off as snow and not rain.

[runninthruda206]

[TigerWoodsLibido]

I just hope the swamp starts off as snow and not rain.

 

You're going to do well with this. No worries. 

[SeanNyberg]

I just hope the swamp starts off as snow and not rain.

 

YASSSSS!  That could be the difference between moderate and epic.

[weatherfan2012]

While O/N/D have been cranking out warm records like a machine over North America in recent years, F/M/A have definitely tried to make up the difference.

Impressive stuff in the context of this warm climate era, both with the recent Midwest cold and now the ongoing and still upcoming western cold. Not to mention the big February 2015 cold in the east.

what's funny phil is everyone includeing promets had all this cold in the east for this February not many had this kind of cold pattern in the west.it the winter that has pretty much threw alot of forecasters and long rangers through a loop.mother nature at her best reminding us that she still the boss and she going to do what she wants to do.

[The Swamp]

YASSSSS! That could be the difference between moderate and epic.

These sliders tend to switch us to onshore flow. Kills the accumulation process here in the swamp.

[TT-SEA]

SEA is up to 36 now with sun.  

[ShawniganLake]

Hopefully the Euro is handling Tuesdays storm better than the GFS. Which shows nothing at all

[Requiem]

Hopefully the Euro is handling Tuesdays storm better than the GFS. Which shows nothing at all

The operational seems like an outlier from the great GFS ensembles.

[Randyc321]

SEA is up to 36 now with sun.

 And still just a nice crisp 32 a few miles away.

 

 

[North_County]

Some low temps for Washington over the next week. Check the date stamps for timing. Crazy to see the Fraser valley go sub zero.

 

5744175F-D2B1-4C47-B7D9-960B5031A078.png 3294BBB2-74B4-472D-A795-DD752B7AF79C.png 4EE6AA3E-45B5-4D9F-8765-D29993FA858A.png 927C86A8-C959-409F-8237-289C5B0B8DFC.png 1AE26AD8-58FE-4139-9D46-FF0DA6021170.png

Wow. That hr192 temperature map is.....something.

[Randyc321]

Let us dive into a top-tier, multi-week arctic blast that buries us in endless snow opportunities!

 

 

 

Seem ironic that this is where we are going???

[bainbridgekid]

FWIW, the NAM gives Bellingham 11 inches Friday night into Saturday morning and basically nothing for Seattle.

 

Basically a 2/23/14 redux.

 

I wouldn't put must stock in it though. The low still takes a good track and the NAM really struggles in dynamic setups like this.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

The 12z EURO EPS loop out to day 15. You know the drill.

 

[BhamMe]

FWIW, the NAM gives Bellingham 11 inches Friday night into Saturday morning and basically nothing for Seattle.

 

Basically a 2/23/14 redux.

 

I wouldn't put must stock in it though. The low still takes a good track and the NAM really struggles in dynamic setups like this.

I'll take the 11" and happily share some with everyone South of Bellingham. 

[BhamMe]

The 12z EURO EPS loop out to day 15. You know the drill.

 

#EPIC!!!

[joelgombiner]

New user, longtime Seattle snow fan. My PhD work is on ice age geology of Washington. Seems newly relevant. The way this weather pattern is developing, we should have mammoths back in the Puget Lowland by March. 

 

Trying to understand more about what is causing this current weather pattern. From reading this thread I see there are links to sudden stratospheric warming, high pressure over the NE Pacific, and I have seen mention of extratropical forcing. Anybody know of a good read on this for a total non-meteorologist? 

[MossMan]

FWIW, the NAM gives Bellingham 11 inches Friday night into Saturday morning and basically nothing for Seattle.

 

Basically a 2/23/14 redux.

 

I wouldn't put must stock in it though. The low still takes a good track and the NAM really struggles in dynamic setups like this.

Pretty crazy the wild differences with the snow total between the models and we are so close to the event.

[Jesse]

New user, longtime Seattle snow fan. My PhD work is on ice age geology of Washington. Seems newly relevant. The way this weather pattern is developing, we should have mammoths back in the Puget Lowland by March.

 

Trying to understand more about what is causing this current weather pattern. From reading this thread I see there are links to sudden stratospheric warming, high pressure over the NE Pacific, and I have seen mention of extratropical forcing. Anybody know of a good read on this for a total non-meteorologist?

Welcome. Your work sounds fascinating. Definitely right up my alley.

 

Phil would be the guy to ask as far as finding a good read up on the SSW event.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

A amazing update by Cliff Mass. Go read it. He thinks this will be largest event in decades

[Winterdog]

FWIW, the NAM gives Bellingham 11 inches Friday night into Saturday morning and basically nothing for Seattle.

 

Basically a 2/23/14 redux.

 

I wouldn't put must stock in it though. The low still takes a good track and the NAM really struggles in dynamic setups like this.

It looks like Seattle is in the 1-3” area to me.

[Jesse]

Just running through the EPS frame by frame, it actually looks significantly warmer with the 500mb pattern Tuesday and Wednesday. Cuts more energy off under the block, kind of like the 12z GFS tried to do. Might be something to watch going forward.

[ttt]

      

 

 

      

[wxmet]

NAM is pretty much trash outside of the analysis hour. Fun to look at but not to take seriously.

[Jesse]

I will add the block re-asserts itself after that on the EPS. But if what I mentioned becomes a trend it could have implications on the system early next week.

[SeanNyberg]

34 and clear skies in Redmond, WA

[Deweydog]

I will add the block re-asserts itself after that on the EPS. But if what I mentioned becomes a trend it could have implications on the system early next week.

Thanks Tim.

[Jesse]

Thanks Tim.

You’re welcome Jesse.

[Deweydog]

You’re welcome Jesse.

Definitely some hints the third system may not have the same southbound bombing as the first two. Sets up a much higher risk/reward situation.

[Jesse]

Definitely some hints the third system may not have the same southbound bombing as the first two. Sets up a much higher risk/reward situation.

I do like the fact that all the models seem to agree that the base of the block remains strong despite the undercutting effort.

[Jbolin]

A amazing update by Cliff Mass. Go read it. He thinks this will be largest event in decades

Comparing this to Dec 1996 is pretty D**n ballsy by Cliff Mass standards but I don't think he's far off

[Front Ranger]

I will add the block re-asserts itself after that on the EPS. But if what I mentioned becomes a trend it could have implications on the system early next week.

 

The pattern will change at some point, probably very quickly in the models. Hopefully everyone is able to just enjoy this as long as it lasts, even if it doesn't turn into the longest blocking episode on record.

[Jesse]

Just fwiw I looked at the 12z EPS yesterday to compare and it was showing something similar for that time frame. So maybe the op is overriding that solution. That or there just happens to be more ensemble spread around then since it is kind of a tricky 500mb configuration to model.

 

I was glad to see it’s not a new/emerging trend at least, though.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

If anyone in the valley hits 40 today it will not be by much. 36 at PDX, 37 SLE, 38 EUG.

[Timmy Supercell]

Had an additional inch yesterday, so out of this whole event 2.50" which isn't a lot. There is another station here that had more.

[Deweydog]

I do like the fact that all the models seem to agree that the base of the block remains strong despite the undercutting effort.

This doesn’t smell like something that gets undercut. If anything I get the feeling it’ll be some sort of split/retrograde sometime later next week.