February 2019 Weather in the Pacific Northwest - Part 1

[Requiem]

I think I see a wind event at hour 240

Haha, very funny.

[crf450ish]

Low solar feedback loop?

[Blizzard777]

Nope. Not,buying it. I refuse.

 

I’m not biting either

Nothing to see here folks move along

[Guest Sounder]

I think most of us are going to get something at this point. The bullseye will probably shift (though it seems closer to Seattle at this point).

You just can't help yourself, can you? The Euro just showed 2 feet of snow for you and you are still managing to sound unhappy.

[BLI snowman]

Definitely some flurry action in Clark County right now.

 

Going to seem hilariously trivial in a week!

[TT-SEA]

Was in meeting... not sure if this was posted.  

 

[GHweatherChris]

I know we are like Leonardo DiCaprio on one of his yachts, waiting for the newest and freshest models to come out, but I just wanted to say Hi!

I'm new to this forum.

Studied meteorology at UW for two years before making a huge pivot and deciding to get into Law. Got my JD at Gonzaga Law.

Obsessed with weather, born and raised in Issaquah, college in Seattle, law school in Spokane, and now I live in downtown Bellevue.

 

When I was in middle school I job shadowed Jeff Renner on King 5 News. I was so d**n excited and no one else in my class knew who he was. haha

 

Anyway - look forward to all the posts and throwing my thoughts in occasionally.

Just wanted to say HI!

Welcome!

 

I shadowed Jeff Renner as well my senior year of high school in 1996.

[Requiem]

You just can't help yourself, can you? The Euro just showed 2 feet of snow for you and you are still managing to sound unhappy.

You definitely misinterpret me. If that sounded unhappy then by all means feel free to interpret it that way. But it certainly wasn’t my intention.

[Christensen87]

I know we are like Leonardo DiCaprio on one of his yachts, waiting for the newest and freshest models to come out, but I just wanted to say Hi!

I'm new to this forum.

Studied meteorology at UW for two years before making a huge pivot and deciding to get into Law. Got my JD at Gonzaga Law.

Obsessed with weather, born and raised in Issaquah, college in Seattle, law school in Spokane, and now I live in downtown Bellevue.

 

When I was in middle school I job shadowed Jeff Renner on King 5 News.  I was so d**n excited and no one else in my class knew who he was. haha

 

Anyway - look forward to all the posts and throwing my thoughts in occasionally.

Just wanted to say HI!

 

I'm new to this too, just joined yesterday. So much fun, but can be tough keeping up ha! Enjoy :-) 

[SeanNyberg]

Ahh, Jeff Renner, undoubtedly one of the most pessimistic forecasters the NW have ever known, aside from Rich Marriott and possibly Rod Hill in PDX

 

Seriously!   :) hahaha.  Even when I was like 12 years old getting ready for school, I figured that if Rich Marriott predicted a Tr-1" we were getting blasted lol!  But huge props to those guys that go out on the firing line.  Granted they get paid well, but the average person can be SO terrible if a forecast doesn't pan out exactly.

WE are terrible, but we don't blame the forecaster.  We see how many variables are at play and the fact that we can reasonably predict the future is insane - while we might be frustrated with no snow or missed wind events, we don't attack forecasters.  As if they somehow control the weather. LOL

 

In conclusion, Jeff and Rich were/are super conservative. But Jeff was pretty accurate.

Even more than shadowing Jeff Renner, I was more excited to be retweeted by NWS, Sistek, and Morgan Palmer, over the years.  LOL! Man, I need a life  

[Deweydog]

Definitely some flurry action in Clark County right now.

 

Going to seem hilariously trivial in a week!

ALL flakes matter.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

I-5 is going to be closed from Redding to the Canadian Border.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Was in meeting... not sure if this was posted.

 

The full 10 day snow totals weren't posted yet, thanks.

[Jbolin]

I think you are looking for the words "conservative and pragmatic", and that was Rich, not Jeff.

 

Jeff Renner is a goddamn institution, and will go down along with Steve Pool as local hero.

Agree to disagree, Steve Pool is an institution, Jeff Renner was just "there" 

 

Rich Marriott to this day is still meh

 

Semantics aside, they are great guys I just have a different view

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Why a disaster?

For people who can't deal with it. I want even more than is shown. Bring it.

[Jbolin]

Haha, very funny.

Stop taking things out of your control and yourself so seriously

[MossMan]

It’s awesome having all of these new forum members all of a sudden! Welcome everyone!

[TT-SEA]

Can you post either the min/max frames or plots for YVR, SEA, and PDX?

 

Very busy today with work... 

 

 

[seattleweatherguy]

National Weather Service Seattle WA

920 AM PST Wed Feb 6 2019

 

.SYNOPSIS...Dry and cold weather will continue through

Thursday. Another winter storm is expected Friday into Saturday -

bringing lowland snow and windy conditions to the area. The cold and

active weather will continue into early next week.

 

&&

 

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...A cold and dry pattern

will remain in place today and Thursday. Skies are generally clear

this morning, other than a few locations with low fog - mostly in

sheltered river valleys and over Lake Washington. The clear skies

definitely helped a overnight temperatures drop down into the teens

at many locations with a few spots dipping down into the single

digits. Sunny skies today, with below normal temperatures - albeit a

bit warmer than yesterday - reaching into the mid to upper 30s.

Expect cold overnight temps again tonight with low 20s and even a

few spots dipping down into the teens again. The upper level ridge

axis will shift to the southeast Thursday resulting in another dry

day with temperatures a bit warmer - in the low 40s - possibly the

warmest day of the week.

 

A cold storm system sliding south along British Columbia late

Thursday night into Friday morning will bring the threat of another -

potentially significant - winter storm to the area. Models remain

in good agreement regarding the overall pattern with precipitation

moving from the north Friday morning, drop southward across the area

during the day. Temperatures through the northern third of the

interior continue to look cold enough for precipitation to fall as

snow. The remainder of the interior - especially south of Snohomish

county may see more of a mix of precipitation types initially with

flow remaining southerly into Friday evening before outflow from the

Fraser works fully through the interior lowlands. This should occur

by Saturday as the low drops south off the Oregon coast and

temperatures cool. Models differ on the amounts of precipitation

associated with this system, and there continues to be a fair amount

of uncertainty associated with the myriad details that can affect

the amounts and locations of lowland snow in this kind of pattern.

One thing to watch will be the potential for easterly flow

developing which could help moderate temperatures east of the I-5

corridor mitigating snow fall. This kind of pattern would conversely

enhance snowfall through the hood canal area. With the colder

temperatures Saturday, precipitation is expected to fall as snow

with some models showing a deformation zone forming somewhere over

the central Puget Sound. This feature could result in an area of

enhanced snowfall. Perhaps just as significant as the potential for

lowland snow is this system will bring another round of strong NE

outflow winds from the Fraser River Valley late Friday night into

Saturday. The strongest winds are expected over the north interior

with breezy conditions expected elsewhere. Things being to wind down

Saturday night into early Sunday with precipitation ending from

north to south.

 

This system will potential result in widespread impacts from snow-

covered roads, cold temperatures, and strong outflow winds up north.

Please continue to monitor the forecast for the latest

information.

 

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...from previous

discussion...Ridging attempts to briefly build in Sunday into early

Monday in wake of departing system. A few snow showers could linger

through Sunday morning before everywhere temporarily dries out.

Depending on fresh snow cover, temperatures may struggle to reach

the freezing mark Sunday afternoon with another chilly night into

Monday morning. Cold, progressive pattern continues Monday into

Tuesday as another system digs south from BC. Currently, this looks

much weaker than Friday-Saturday system but model differences

remain. Regardless, could see another round of lowland snow with

compounding impacts from this week. But far too early to speculate

on details. Let`s get through this Friday-Saturday system first.

 

CEO

 

&&

[ShawniganLake]

Kuchera. 30”+ in Seattle.

 

[BhamMe]

I think you are looking for the words "conservative and pragmatic", and that was Rich, not Jeff.

 

Jeff Renner is a goddamn institution, and will go down along with Steve Pool as local hero.

Steve Pool cut in front of me in line at the old QFC on Capitol Hill around 2004. When I asked him what he was doing he said "oh, you are in line?" He then turned back around and continued to stand there. - JERK! 

[Phil]

What was the error in this case? Was the error that the snow hole should not exist in the first place or should the snow hole should really be bigger and expand into the western part of the metro area?

This is just based on the familiar snow-hole I see modeled here to the lee of the Blue Ridge mountains during nor’easters, which never verifies. I admit I don’t know the ins and outs of the snow algorithms but for whatever reason, whether it’s the assumption of downsloping or whatever, there’s a snow hole that is always modeled there when the streamflow runs perpendicular to the terrain and it never actually happens.

[Skagit Weather]

In the shorter term, it's really interesting to see how the models are treating the Friday/Saturday storm differently up in the North Sound and for Vancouver Island. Here's a 4 model comparison of the Euro, WRF-GFS, GFS, and FV3 for up to Saturday Evening (to be fair the Euro run is from 12z Saturday rather than 00Z Sunday, but I just screen captured it from something somebody posted earlier and not much more snow falls in the North Sound during that time).

 

WRF places the highest totals up north (I get >8") while Euro gives me about 2". Must have something to do with how they're modeling the outflow. I'm liable to believe that the drier versions up here will verify, but I will admit that the GFS and it's WRF counterpart are definitely pretty beautiful. Although if the Euro is to be believed it won't matter much by next week anyways.

 

[Guest Sounder]

Kuchera. 30”+ in Seattle.

 

2F8CE87D-7039-4417-B37F-C0A58042DD06.png

What the ****

[TT-SEA]

Looks like I'm in luck because there is a well-informed poster who seems to live up against Rattlesnake Mountain in North Bend too! Do the drying east winds (if they happen) typically reduce snow totals up higher by Rattlesnake Lake like they do downtown and in Snoqualmie?

Where do you live???

[SilverFallsAndrew]

At least the clouds have stuck around until at least midday now here in Salem. Keeping the temp down a bit since it didn't drop very low last night. I hate situations where the clouds hold the temp up all night and then clear right at dawn.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

At least the clouds have stuck around until at least midday now here in Salem. Keeping the temp down a bit since it didn't drop very low last night. I hate situations where the clouds hold the temp up all night and then clear right at dawn.

 

Yeah south valley also.  We were expected to get into the 40s and we are at 36.6 now.  It'll probly happen but barely.

[TT-SEA]

Behind Brewster Lake against the mountain. Because of that we get no sun in the winter so snowfall really sticks around!

I know exactly where that is... hardly any sun ever right there. Even in the summer.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Behind Brewster Lake against the mountain. Because of that we get no sun in the winter so snowfall really sticks around!

 

Welcome 

[Front Ranger]

Phil would know, but I wonder if the arctic air itself would have been this cold a month ago. I don't just mean this year, with the timing of the SSW event, but in general, if it is in later January and into February that the arctic air is at its coldest.

All I know is that the coldest air masses to affect the PNW the last 100+ years, in terms of surface temps, have almost all occurred in that Dec 15 - Feb 5 window.

 

Most of the notable exceptions have been early season (Nov 55, Nov 85, Dec 13).

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Tim now that we are this close to this event whats your take on what the euro just showed?

[wx_statman]

-6 at Yakima was a late season record this morning. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Who wants to take a backcountry ski trip in the Cascades starting Friday evening?

[TT-SEA]

Tim now that we are this close to this event whats your take on what the euro just showed?

Insanity.

[Deweydog]

Anyone need any provisions at Costco? Fred’s buying.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Really wish we could get a bigtime gradient built up to blow cold air over the Cascades in some sort of mountain wave event.

[Guest Sounder]

January 1950 January 1950 January 1950 January 1950 January 1950 January 1950

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Insanity.

You know how accurate it is in this time frame. Pretty crazy.

[Deweydog]

Really wish we could get a bigtime gradient built up to blow cold air over the Cascades in some sort of mountain wave event.

Those are inherently dry.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

-6 at Yakima was a late season record this morning. 

 

WOW really?!