February 2019 Weather in the Pacific Northwest - Part 1

[Esquimalt]

ECMWF showing a high of 10 and low of -2 for abbotsford one day. 

[Guest Sounder]

The fact that this is happening in February is absolutely insane to me. This is seriously unreal.

[ShawniganLake]

We should probably make a game plan in case this thing falls apart.

[Jbolin]

Insanity.

One word responses from Tim? 

 

You know 's about to get real 

[Skagit Weather]

Did anyone see official NWS snow totals from the Sunday/Monday snow? I saw the graphic they posted on twitter, but usually they put out official storm report totals for all across the area and I haven't seen that yet.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

We should probably make a game plan in case this thing falls apart.

 

Mass emigration to the upper midwest.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Kuchera. 30”+ in Seattle.

 

2F8CE87D-7039-4417-B37F-C0A58042DD06.png

Normally the Kuchera ratio brings snow totals down. This one actually brings it up. Good to see.

[jakerepp]

We should probably make a game plan in case this thing falls apart.

 

I think it will involve lots of crying and lots of booze. 

[bainbridgekid]

FV-3 looking good.

 

[wxmet]

Would be a good time now to stock up at your local super markets in Seattle and the surrounding areas. Avoid the potential mad rush on Thursday and Friday when those winter storm watches and warnings go up.

[wx_statman]

WOW really?!

 

For the airport anyway (1946-). We just set the previous record in 2014 (-4 on 2/7), too.

[Deweydog]

We should probably make a game plan in case this thing falls apart.

Kill Tim?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

My first February up here was 2012. Since then I've averaged 8.5" of snow in February. Already have 9.1" this month.

 

2012: 16.8"
2013: 0

2014: 9.8"

2015: 0

2016: 0.5"

2017: 13.8"

2018: 18.3

[Deweydog]

FV-3 looking good.

 

download.png

Whiteout.

[jakerepp]

Whiteout.

 

Is that the joke or....did the image just not download?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

For the airport anyway (1946-). We just set the previous record in 2014 (-4 on 2/7), too.

 

Incredible. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Really wish I had deployed the new forum last summer.

 

Better have it ready for the December 2019 arctic blast. We are going to celebrate the centennial of the 1919 blast in STYLE!

[FroYoBro]

My first February up here was 2012. Since then I've averaged 8.5" of snow in February. Already have 9.1" this month.

 

2012: 16.8"

2013: 0

2014: 9.8"

2015: 0

2016: 0.5"

2017: 13.8"

2018: 18.3

 

Your totals are most likely going to be insane this month. Will be fun to see. 

[BLI snowman]

Who wants to take a backcountry ski trip in the Cascades starting Friday evening?

 

Won't need to go all that far for good skiing pretty soon 

[TT-SEA]

EPS out through day 10.   Don't even need to check it any more.   It NEVER changes.

 

 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Is that the joke or....did the image just not download?

 

You will learn the vets' tendencies pretty quick 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

EPS out through day 10. Don't even need to check it any more. It NEVER changes.

 

 

Couldn't have said it better myself.

[Phil]

Phil would know, but I wonder if the arctic air itself would have been this cold a month ago. I don't just mean this year, with the timing of the SSW event, but in general, if it is in later January and into February that the arctic air is at its coldest.

The smoothed average for Arctic temperatures (or temperatures above 70N in general) usually bottoms out around Feb 11th, however that’s only part of the equation re: mid-latitude cold potential.

 

Insolation, seasonal wavetrain changes, snowpack, etc all affect how much of that cold can be advected to various locations outside the Arctic. So even though the Arctic keeps cooling right on through the first half of February, most of the middle latitudes begin warming during the 3rd or 4th week of January (with some regional exceptions due to seasonal wavetrain dynamics).

 

And there’s no guarantee this event could have been possible a month ago if the wavetrain wasn’t post-mature like it is now. So..I don’t know the answer.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

EPS looks snowy

[Esquimalt]

EPS looks snowy

Can anyone post the EPS snow ensembles for Victoria, Seattle and Portland?  Thank you

[Tenochtitlan]

The Seattle NWS office set a new February record low of 18 yesterday

 

That was the coldest it's been there since 2013!

[Frontal Snowsquall]

EPS looks snowy

Good to hear. We're going to get snow. Just going to be a question now of how much.

[TT-SEA]

That is correct! The sun goes away around 4 PM on the summer solstice I'll take the trade off though because some days we get 8 inches up here and it's raining in downtown North Bend. 

 

 

Yes... lots more snow than North Bend usually.   But the trees and mountain blocking the sun in your specific spot is not the reason why. 

 

Most the area in Wilderness Rim has sun until 7 or even 8 p.m. in the summer and gets the same amount of snow.   Your snow just does not melt quite as fast.    Unless there is the usual 50 degree rain and wind afterwards and then its all gone in a heartbeat.  

[Frontal Snowsquall]

We should probably make a game plan in case this thing falls apart.

I'm going into this with no back-up plan. It's all or nothing for me.

[Cloud]

Just catching up on the last 10 pages. 

 

Just want to say holy hell Euro. 

[Phil]

For the airport anyway (1946-). We just set the previous record in 2014 (-4 on 2/7), too.

Wow, that’s impressive.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Your totals are most likely going to be insane this month. Will be fun to see. 

 

I actually wouldn't mind a slightly less snowy solution up here. Part of me wants to see the EURO verify, but if I had 10-15" I wouldn't be too upset. I live in a fairly undeveloped area so the extreme EURO solution could literally leave me stranded with no power.

[Phil]

While O/N/D have been cranking out warm records like a machine over North America in recent years, F/M/A have definitely tried to make up the difference.

 

Impressive stuff in the context of this warm climate era, both with the recent Midwest cold and now the ongoing and still upcoming western cold. Not to mention the big February 2015 cold in the east.

[Front Ranger]

Steve Pool cut in front of me in line at the old QFC on Capitol Hill around 2004. When I asked him what he was doing he said "oh, you are in line?" He then turned back around and continued to stand there. - JERK!

 

Sounds like Bill Murray in Groundhog Day.

[Phil]

Obviously! I'm a "Forum Newbie" but I'm not that stupid! I was just saying I'm in paradise up here despite the lack of sun. Do you mind if I ask the same question as before: Do the winds from the east dry out snow totals up here as much as they do in downtown North Bend and Snoqualmie?

Welcome!

 

Don’t mind Tim, he just really, really, really, really craves sunlight. More than the average person. It’s all he talks about during the summer. He’s a good guy though.

[TT-SEA]

Obviously! I was just saying I'm in paradise up here despite the lack of sun. Do you mind if I ask the same question as before: Do the winds from the east dry out snow totals up here as much as they do in downtown North Bend and Snoqualmie?

 

 

It is paradise... I totally agree.   One of the most beautiful areas within easy driving distance of a major metro area.  

 

You also have massively tall trees blocking the sun on that side of the lake.   That is also what causes the shade so early in the day.   Just a few hundred feet away its sunny for 3-4 hours longer.  

 

In regards to your question... it all depends on the specific details.   Most of the time when there is an drying east wind... it will be just as dry as NB and Snoqualmie... but often less windy because the outflow comes through the pass and spreads out across the valley.    That is not an issue at all with the upcoming pattern.   

[Blizzard777]

For people who can't deal with it. I want even more than is shown. Bring it.

You are one intense individual and I mean this in a good way!

I second the motion !

[Phil]

I actually wouldn't mind a slightly less snowy solution up here. Part of me wants to see the EURO verify, but if I had 10-15" I wouldn't be too upset. I live in a fairly undeveloped area so the extreme EURO solution could literally leave me stranded with no power.

Don’t worry, I’ll tunnel over there and dig you out.

 

Bring it on.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

For people who can't deal with it. I want even more than is shown. Bring it.

You are one intense individual and I mean this in a good way!

I second the motion !

 

Yeah, I'm the same way. Bring it! ❄

[TT-SEA]

Welcome!

 

Don’t mind Tim, he just really, really, really, really craves sunlight. More than the average person. It’s all he talks about during the summer. He’s a good guy though.

 

His spot is really unique though. There are about 5 or 6 houses over there that get almost no sun regardless of the season.

 

Great spot for keeping snow!