Guest hawkstwelve Posted February 7, 2019 Report Share Posted February 7, 2019 10PM AFD from Seattle sounds much, much, much more promising for starting as all snow for almost everyone. Must be going with the Euro guidance. They also mention issuing a WSW soon and leaning towards the heavier possibilities of snowfall due to various factors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 7, 2019 Report Share Posted February 7, 2019 Boom! Forms out of nowhere on Monday morning. **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 7, 2019 Report Share Posted February 7, 2019 Sure been a whole bunch of runs recently showing the typical Swamp screw zone in full force. Will not verify. The ECMWF has very uniform snow coverage for everybody. That is due to lighter easterly gradients than the NCEP models. I'm feeling really good about this one. How oftn can you say we are going to have widespread 5 to 8 inch accumulations. I'm thrilled. 1 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted February 7, 2019 Report Share Posted February 7, 2019 Euro holding strong. I’ll be damned. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted February 7, 2019 Report Share Posted February 7, 2019 Boom! Forms out of nowhere on Monday morning. Wait, is this just in 6 hours? "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jbolin Posted February 7, 2019 Report Share Posted February 7, 2019 Friday's system really just hauls a** outta here huh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 7, 2019 Report Share Posted February 7, 2019 And Seattle is going to be screwed in favor of Portland and Eugene on this run. **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FrozenBites Posted February 7, 2019 Report Share Posted February 7, 2019 Boom! Forms out of nowhere on Monday morning. Beautiful! Just seeing the system on Monday consistently on Euro is nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seattleweatherguy Posted February 7, 2019 Report Share Posted February 7, 2019 And Seattle is going to be screwed in favor of Portland and Eugene on this run.Ouch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 7, 2019 Report Share Posted February 7, 2019 Wait, is this just in 6 hours? Yes. Through 4 a.m. Monday. **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted February 7, 2019 Report Share Posted February 7, 2019 And Seattle is going to be screwed in favor of Portland and Eugene on this run.Would make this an incredibly well rounded week regionally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest hawkstwelve Posted February 7, 2019 Report Share Posted February 7, 2019 Anyone check out the Seattle AFD yet...hint, it’s a good one. Great minds think alike I see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 7, 2019 Report Share Posted February 7, 2019 10PM AFD from Seattle sounds much, much, much more promising for starting as all snow for almost everyone. Must be going with the Euro guidance. They also mention issuing a WSW soon and leaning towards the heavier possibilities of snowfall due to various factors. I was going to say the ECMWF surface temperature maps are colder on Friday than previous runs. Temps low to mid 30s at the warmest part of the day. Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERDtheBYRD Posted February 7, 2019 Report Share Posted February 7, 2019 Boom! Forms out of nowhere on Monday morning. This will make the PDX people happy 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted February 7, 2019 Report Share Posted February 7, 2019 Gotta wonder what is going through Mark Nelsen’s mind right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 7, 2019 Report Share Posted February 7, 2019 Stuck at 108 hours! **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted February 7, 2019 Report Share Posted February 7, 2019 Gosh, that's annoying when you load the NWS PDX page to see they've updated the Aviation Discussion only /: At least it's not "seasonable weather" anymore. "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 7, 2019 Report Share Posted February 7, 2019 Would make this an incredibly well rounded week regionally. I still get a little bit from the Monday system too. 2 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted February 7, 2019 Report Share Posted February 7, 2019 Stuck at 108 hours! Snow totals integer overflow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted February 7, 2019 Report Share Posted February 7, 2019 Stuck at 108 hours! Leave it there! Maybe it will keep snowing down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted February 7, 2019 Report Share Posted February 7, 2019 Stuck at 108 hours!The prolonged negative PNA broke the EURO. Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted February 7, 2019 Report Share Posted February 7, 2019 The ECMWF has very uniform snow coverage for everybody. That is due to lighter easterly gradients than the NCEP models. I'm feeling really good about this one. How oftn can you say we are going to have widespread 5 to 8 inch accumulations. I'm thrilled.Agreed, me too! AS I said in my post "will not verify". I'm Thrilled! My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seattleweatherguy Posted February 7, 2019 Report Share Posted February 7, 2019 And Seattle is going to be screwed in favor of Portland and Eugene on this run.Question is where is the difference in the low? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 7, 2019 Report Share Posted February 7, 2019 Racing to the SE on Monday morning. No real phasing... inland trough dominates and pushes it to the south quickly. **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted February 7, 2019 Report Share Posted February 7, 2019 Grandson will be happy in Portland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted February 7, 2019 Report Share Posted February 7, 2019 Question is where is the difference in the low?Yeah Tim, where is the difference in the low? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted February 7, 2019 Report Share Posted February 7, 2019 Racing to the SE on Monday morning. No real phasing... inland trough dominates and pushes it to the south quickly. Oh well, a good 4-6 inches for most. Very nice! "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seattleweatherguy Posted February 7, 2019 Report Share Posted February 7, 2019 Likely senario or this just a bad run 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted February 7, 2019 Report Share Posted February 7, 2019 And Seattle is going to be screwed in favor of Portland and Eugene on this run.As long as it stays cold, I’m good with that. (As long as we get buried Friday night) 3 Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted February 7, 2019 Report Share Posted February 7, 2019 Likely senario or this just a bad run Why is this a bad run? "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 7, 2019 Report Share Posted February 7, 2019 Monday afternoon and its all gone. The epic snowstorm was in full swing at this time on the 12Z run. **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest hawkstwelve Posted February 7, 2019 Report Share Posted February 7, 2019 Likely senario or this just a bad run Alright everyone, take it easy on the guy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted February 7, 2019 Report Share Posted February 7, 2019 Weekend system way less for here but Monday looking good! Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted February 7, 2019 Report Share Posted February 7, 2019 Consistency. My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted February 7, 2019 Report Share Posted February 7, 2019 Oh well, a good 4-6 inches for most. Very nice!Likely on top of the 4-6” that fell Friday/Saturday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmet Posted February 7, 2019 Report Share Posted February 7, 2019 The UKMET model agrees with the ECMWF for the Monday system which gives more weight to the ECMWF side. Clearly something the NCEP models are not picking up on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 7, 2019 Report Share Posted February 7, 2019 BUT... its coming back on Tuesday morning! **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joaqweri Posted February 7, 2019 Report Share Posted February 7, 2019 latest NWS Seattle discussion. a winter storm watch is being considered at least. .UPDATE 930 PM...The 00z models are trickling in and the outlookfor a potential major winter storm is still advertised by models.A low will move onto the WA coast and shift southeast Friday andFriday night ushering in even colder air. The low track off thePacific should bring the necessary moisture needed for heavyprecipitation. Very cold air, probably colder than the last systemwill quickly drop temperatures into the 20s by Friday night andSaturday. This should increase snow/liquid ratios, and some modelsare picking up on the heavy snow potential with well over 6 incheson the GFS. North wind and Fraser outflow will also create blowingand driving of snow. At this time, it looks like precipitationwill be all snow with only a short duration of south wind if atall on Friday. The current air mass will not likely be displacedthat quickly before cold air aloft moves in. It would be coldenough aloft for onshore flow regardless, at least just inlandfrom the water. MOS is way too warm, trending toward climo andpossibly 10-15 degrees too warm with highs Saturday. A winterstorm watch is will need to be considered with very heavy amountson some models, but lower end amounts still near the 4" pluscriteria.Another system arrives Monday. More snow, cold, and wind couldworsen any clean up and impact the commute. Forecasts should bemonitored closely as significant winter weather is likely acrossmost of Western WA. Mercer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seattleweatherguy Posted February 7, 2019 Report Share Posted February 7, 2019 Why is this a bad run?For us Puget Sounders 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 7, 2019 Report Share Posted February 7, 2019 Consistency. High bust scenario if there ever was a high bust scenario. So many possibilities. **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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