February 2019 Weather in the Pacific Northwest - Part 1

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Just texted my buddy in chesaw. -4 with a 25mph wind.

[ShawniganLake]

Pic was posted earlier via the city of Marysville Facebook page...my area must have had a lot more since we always out perform Marysville!

That was quite a stretch of winter. We had 135” of snow over about 5 weeks.

[Perturbed Member]

That dry slot is going exactly as modeled. It only gets bigger too.

[Winterdog]

Snow picking up again. 25.2 degrees.

How much snow do you have now? I’ve got about 4” and still snowing a bit.

[MossMan]

That was quite a stretch of winter. We had 135” of snow over about 5 weeks.

Wow! That is quite amazing, would be awesome to experience something like that...

[snow_wizard]

When do you think the heaviest snow will occur? Midnight to 8am?

 

Not totally sure.  There is a surface low over northern Oregon that will be east of our longitude shortly.  That could be a good time for things to pick up.  We seem to do better when the surface gradients become more northerly or NNW (which they will a bit later).

[SilverFallsAndrew]

That dry slot is going exactly as modeled. It only gets bigger too.

 

The HRRR looks really good for the South Valley tonight. Its more aggressive with the deformation zone too. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

When is the maximum pressure difference? Bellingham has had a 61 mph gust.

[wxmet]

Radar actually looks fine for all of King County....

 

Radar may look fine but what's actually happening on the ground can be different story. The SPC mesoanalysis is showing an area of 850mb frontogenesis maxima co-located with the deep reflectivity over the northern Sound. There is an area of 700mb frontogenesis developing around Olympia and Tacoma over the past few hours that may help stronger bands develop and push northwards. 

[Guest hawkstwelve]

Snowing more heavily now and beginning to freeze up.  It has arrived!

 

Nice reports from you and Tim. Bodes well for the rest of King County over the next hour or two at least.

[Perturbed Member]

Roads starting to get covered at ~sea level

 

[MossMan]

How much snow do you have now? I’ve got about 4” and still snowing a bit.

I’m sitting at about 3”. Snow has really picked up now, will be interesting to see how much more we can wring out of this thing.

Down to 24.8.

[Guest hawkstwelve]

Satellite paints a nice picture for us tonight. Band of heavier snow developing along moisture feed from the Pacific as center of low pressure system spins off the coast.   Placement of this band may wobble overnight and lead to  higher snow totals & AM traffic headaches #wawx pic.twitter.com/18kqHkZiSk

— NWS Seattle (@NWSSeattle) February 4, 2019

 

[Requiem]

Roads starting to get covered at ~sea level

 

Come on. How long will it take to get a snow shower or two to come inland?

[Deweydog]

Radar may look fine but what's actually happening on the ground can be different story. The SPC mesoanalysis is showing an area of 850mb frontogenesis maxima co-located with the deep reflectivity over the northern Sound. There is an area of 700mb frontogenesis developing around Olympia and Tacoma over the past few hours that may help stronger bands develop and push northwards.

Good post, my friend.

[snow_wizard]

The EPS cotinues to trend colder for the late week event.  Quite impressive.

[Requiem]

The EPS cotinues to trend colder for the late week event.  Quite impressive.

Crazy.

[Blizzard777]

Where is AM located?

[BLI snowman]

That dry slot is going exactly as modeled. It only gets bigger too.

 

 

12km does shift the deformation zone back this way by 10am, as does our one true friend the HRRRRRRR

 

 

 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

FWIW, my forecast contest entry.

 

SEA:

 

33/24  - 2"

33/20  - 0"

35/22  - 0"

40/20  - 0"

35/25  - 1"   

 

PDX:

 

38/31 - 1"

37/25 - 1"

39/23 - 0"

42/29 - 0"      

37/27 - 2"

[snow_wizard]

When is the maximum pressure difference? Bellingham has had a 61 mph gust.

 

We might be close to the peak.  Amazingly Cathedral Point (west of Bella Coola) had sustained 66 gust to 91 earlier with a temp of 13.  Talk about insane!  That would rival any severe weather on the east coast of Canada.

[BLI snowman]

Radar may look fine but what's actually happening on the ground can be different story. The SPC mesoanalysis is showing an area of 850mb frontogenesis maxima co-located with the deep reflectivity over the northern Sound. There is an area of 700mb frontogenesis developing around Olympia and Tacoma over the past few hours that may help stronger bands develop and push northwards. 

 

Sounds dire for them.

[Deweydog]

We might be close to the peak. Amazingly Cathedral Point (west of Bella Coola) had sustained 66 gust to 91 earlier with a temp of 13. Talk about insane! That would rival any severe weather on the east coast of Canada.

Except there may be a little “-“ in front of that 13.

[Blizzard777]

Satellite paints a nice picture for us tonight. Band of heavier snow developing along moisture feed from the Pacific as center of low pressure system spins off the coast.   Placement of this band may wobble overnight and lead to  higher snow totals & AM traffic headaches #wawx pic.twitter.com/18kqHkZiSk

— NWS Seattle (@NWSSeattle) February 4, 2019

 

I may as well go for the 4 inches posted by the Euro!!! Looking awesome

I may not sleep tonight

[BLI snowman]

FWIW, my forecast contest entry.

 

SEA:

 

33/24  - 2"

33/20  - 0"

35/22  - 0"

40/20  - 0"

35/25  - 1"   

 

PDX:

 

38/31 - 1"

37/25 - 1"

29/23 - 0"

42/29 - 0"      

37/27 - 2"

 

Does the thermometer at PDX break on Wednesday in this scenario?

[Requiem]

I may as well go for the 4 inches posted by the Euro!!! Looking awesome

I may not sleep tonight

Looks like you get a day off tomorrow too!

[Deweydog]

Does the thermometer at PDX break on Wednesday in this scenario?

I entered it in assuming it was a typo.

[Skagit Weather]

The precipitation is getting tantalizingly close up here and temperature has dropped to 23.7F...It's not that frequently we have snow at this cold of a temperature. Maybe once in the last 10 years I can remember. Also could I finally break the 3" barrier I've been struggling to hit for the last 7 years?

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Does the thermometer at PDX break on Wednesday in this scenario?

 

Typo, changed it to 39/23.

[snow_wizard]

Day 11 on the EPS.  No sign whatsoever of the cold pattern breaking down.

 

 

[Deweydog]

The NAM is messing with Justin.

[GHweatherChris]

The low is driving south fast!!

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Wow the 06z nam shows non stop snow from midnight till noon to tomorrow. That moisture feed just stalls over the sound.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Day 11 on the EPS.  No sign whatsoever of the cold pattern breaking down.

 

Best blocking we've seen all winter.

[BLI snowman]

The NAM is messing with Justin.

 

It probably gets off on seeing us squirm. Like the f*cking radar.

[snow_wizard]

Snowing decently here with 0.6" accumulation.

[Deweydog]

It probably gets off on seeing us squirm. Like the f*cking radar.

The radar just wants us to get outside and get some fresh air.

[HighlandExperience]

Wow the 06z nam shows non stop snow from midnight till noon to tomorrow. That moisture feed just stalls over the sound.

That would be something. NAM looking great for Puget Sound

[Blizzard777]

Looks like you get a day off tomorrow too!

I’ve always had to work during these events (Costco). Stuck in a Big box missing all the fun outside. Finally nice to sit back and enjoy it.

[wxmet]

NAM 06z is quite nice for just about everyone. It parks a deformation band over the central Puget Sound that stays into the afternoon hours on Monday. Portland gets into some of the action with a deformation band that develops as the low moves further eastward.