February 2019 Weather Observations and Discussion Part 2

[snow_wizard]

Some major changes on the shape of the block later next week.  Could be favorable for a brief reload.  How cool would that be?

[TT-SEA]

No one would have to be calling you out, including yourself, if you would refrain from making sweeping, definitive statements and ignoring all evidence to the contrary. It’s funny because you hate Trump for employing the same sort of hubris. Even if you do ultimately end up being right it will be for the wrong reasons.

 

 

I just watched a scenario last week that went from looking totally dry in my area at just 4 days out to being an epic snowstorm.    That is probably tainting my outlook right now given that this looks almost identical with a low offshore pulling up copious moisture over cold air at the surface.

[Bryant]

That's my second preferred outcome right there. Or this thing turns into a huge rainstorm for everyone.

So if you can't get snow, then you don't want anyone to get snow? You really are 16 lol

[Frontal Snowsquall]

#trend

#wobble

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

??

Did i look at the wrong maps?

[snow_wizard]

1/20/12 (?) was the only real ice storm I've seen in SEA. It was interesting to experience but not worth the ~16 hour power outage.

 

We get them here somewhat regularly.  I'm probably in the number one spot in the Puget Sound area for them.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Down to 28. 

 

My brother in Coquille is down to 34. He had a pleasant 55/29 day. 

[Jesse]

So if you can't get snow, then you don't want anyone to get snow? You really are 16 lol

Sounds kind of like you...except not 16.

[TT-SEA]

00z GEM, GFS, NAM, FV3 all in some pretty good agreement of a landfall near Coos Bay or just south of it. The GEM and NAM trended north but they were previously way south, the GFS and FV3 moved a good bit south but they were pretty far north before. Hopefully the beginning of some kind of consensus here but I'm sure there will be many more twists and turns. 

 

ICON is on its own for now, the 00z EURO sure is gonna be interesting...

 

 

This a great summary of where things are at right now.

[El_Nina]

Phoenix radar is familiar looking.

[TacomaWaWx]

This overall looks like it’ll be a Portland to Seattle event maybe 1-3 inches in Seattle area more south of Olympia maybe? but let’s see what the euro is saying later and also as we get more runs the next few days

[Bryant]

[Perturbed Member]

We get them here somewhat regularly.  I'm probably in the number one spot in the Puget Sound area for them.

 

What about your area makes you prone to them?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

GFS shows a massive snow event gorge/Columbia Basin late next week.

[Cloud]

Summer outlook is in. JJA is dry and warm for west coast.

Another reason to hope for a cool wet spring

[Frontal Snowsquall]

WOW!!!!!

[Perturbed Member]

Hopefully those EU models don’t turn their back on us.

 

 

Well we have the Brits at least with the UKMET at least as far as the 12z goes. It showed the low heading into the same area as the GFS/FV3/GEM/NAM currently. I really have no idea how good the UKMET is, don't really follow it. 

[TacomaWaWx]

I remember 2 ice storms 2008 and 2012, 2008 wasn’t as big of a deal as 2012, that was something else seeing branches raining down from all the huge tall fir trees out at my grandparents house in Lakewood, we lost power for awhile too.

[Jesse]

Well we have the Brits at least with the UKMET at least as far as the 12z goes. It showed the low heading into the same area as the GFS/FV3/GEM/NAM currently. I really have no idea how good the UKMET is, don't really follow it.

#brexit

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Looks like fv3 went south.

[Requiem]

So if you can't get snow, then you don't want anyone to get snow? You really are 16 lol

The anyone in question already got tons, and that was mainly directed to the few who shamelessly wish for PDX to be screwed (no shame in that really, it’s an IMBY situation and I get it).

[MossMan]

Some major changes on the shape of the block later next week.  Could be favorable for a brief reload.  How cool would that be?

Yep! A quick but massive PNA drop around the first.

[Requiem]

Some major changes on the shape of the block later next week.  Could be favorable for a brief reload.  How cool would that be?

Not cool. Cold.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

The 00z UKMET at days 3 and 4. Not bad.

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_072_0000.gif

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_096_0000.gif

[Deweydog]

Haha!!!

[MossMan]

I remember 2 ice storms 2008 and 2012, 2008 wasn’t as big of a deal as 2012, that was something else seeing branches raining down from all the huge tall fir trees out at my grandparents house in Lakewood, we lost power for awhile too.

Dec 1996 had ice down your way as well.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Onto the 00z KING EURO! ❄

[TT-SEA]

Haha!!!

Not over yet.

 

All models agreed on way south last time at 4 days out.

[TacomaWaWx]

[Requiem]

Not over yet.

All models agreed on way south last time at 4 days out.

Get what you’re saying but not exactly true, many models were starting either taking away the Tuesday system or repositioning it over Seattle at this point. But yes, it is far from over.

[Jesse]

Not over yet.

 

All models agreed on way south last time at 4 days out.

Nope, we are now at the point where the northward trend was happening in earnest two weeks ago. The Thursday night 00z runs were when things started really going to for Portland with regard to the following Monday/Tuesday.

[Requiem]

Dec 1996 had ice down your way as well.

December 1996 DEFINITELY had ice down this way. Crazy storm, Frontal and I were having a discussion on here a couple days ago about that one.

[TT-SEA]

Nope, we are now at the point where the northward trend was happening in earnest two weeks ago. The Thursday night 00z runs were when things started going to s**t for Portland with regard to the following Monday/Tuesday.

I will have to go back and check. That would be very good news.

[Perturbed Member]

Not over yet.

 

All models agreed on way south last time at 4 days out.

 

 

Completely different setup but PDX or areas just south were in the bulleye for the 2/2017 event and the models screwed us just 2 days before by shifting the heaviest stuff to maybe Chehalis and we had mostly 33-34F heavy rain all day. I don't think we can rest easy until maybe Saturday night or Sunday AM. At least we have some wiggle room at the moment. 

 

This event is kind of giving me some Feb 2014 vibes. 

[Jesse]

I will have to go back and check. That would be very good news.

I remember it pretty vividly since we were at the inlaws that night and I was just getting glimpses of model updates here.

[Perturbed Member]

The 00z UKMET at days 3 and 4. Not bad.

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_072_0000.gif

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_096_0000.gif

 

Looks like it agrees with the others, pretty nice. 

[wxmet]

18z EURO was south south-west of 12z.

[GHweatherChris]

I remember it pretty vividly since we were at the inlaws that night and I was just getting glimpses of model updates here.

It was very much in the air at that time as well.

[Requiem]

If I remember correctly the GFS was the model that started screwing PDX over at a similar time to now the last time around.

[Jesse]

It was very much in the air at that time as well.

Weather is always in the air.