February 2019 Weather Observations and Discussion Part 2

[TT-SEA]

No use in begging him or anyone else really, only Tim has control over the lows track.

If I controlled it... the low would be going through San Francisco.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Going out to eat dinner with some friends. See you all later.

[Jesse]

Trends Jesse. We are 3 days out.

 

Looking for trends. You will now watch all of the 00Z runs trend WAY north. Enjoy.

Are you home now?

[Requiem]

Going out to eat dinner with some friends. See you all later.

 

Hope you return to some good news

[TacomaWaWx]

I think that chehalis north will be prime, I just don’t think the models are gonna take the low from landing in brookings OR to Forks WA in like 18 hours haha but we all thought February 11th was gonna be a slam dunk and it didn’t fully come to be

[Requiem]

I think that chehalis north will be prime, I just don’t think the models are gonna take the low from landing in brookings OR to Forks WA in like 18 hours haha but we all thought February 11th was gonna be a slam dunk and it didn’t fully come to be

 

Chehalis south should probably expect cold rain with the way this is going.

[TacomaWaWx]

Chehalis south should probably expect cold rain with the way this is going.

you never know things could change

[Requiem]

you never know

 

GFS already seems to have a northward trend to it, so....

[ewnichols25]

Chehalis south should probably expect cold rain with the way this is going.

Portland could get a surprise ice storm with enough Gorge outflow.

[Requiem]

Portland could get a surprise ice storm with enough Gorge outflow.

 

Fingers crossed!

[TT-SEA]

No idea how... but the MM5 NAM is completely different than the NAM and has everything so far north that even Seattle is too warm by Monday morning.

 

Again... just looking for trends.   Looking at all models for trends... even if they are garbage they still tend to trend in one direction or another and that is more information. 

 

What is comical is that the MM5 NAM is totally different than the NAM itself and not sure how that happens.   

 

[Requiem]

No idea how... but the MM5 NAM is completely different than the NAM and has everything so far north that even Seattle is too warm by Monday morning.

 

Again... just looking for trends.   Looking at all models for trends... even if they are garbage they still tend to trend in one direction or another and that is more information. 

 

What is comical is that the MM5 NAM is totally different than the NAM itself and not sure how that happens.   

 

 

Alright, this time I'm not so concerned, it's just the MM5. You are right about the trends though.

[Requiem]

Okay, I'm not getting my hopes up cause I'm probably seeing things, but the GFS might have shifted the low pressure system a notch south,

[MossMan]

Been a long time since we had a low track from this angle and hit the sweet spot for the sound. Long time.

November 1996 I believe

[GHweatherChris]

Ok, Columbia River landfall tracking NE south of me, boom, lock it in!! I am due...

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

South trend on gfs.

[Timmy]

I thought for sure Tim told the gfs to go north not south

[TT-SEA]

GFS actually looks like it trending south.   

 

I will celebrate if I am wrong about this northward trend.    You will not have to mock me because I be all over that myself and love it.   

[Requiem]

South trend on gfs.

 

So, maybe I'm not seeing things?

[snow_wizard]

Portland could get a surprise ice storm with enough Gorge outflow.

 

Yuck.  I hate ice storms...mainly because I have big trees around my house.  We had some ice with the event that brought the epic snow to North Bend, and it made the usual mess.  It is pretty interesting that I've had rain, snow, graupel, freezing rain, and sleet this month.  Nicely rounded for sure!

[GHweatherChris]

South trend on gfs.

It's wrong

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Pretty nuts to see major models struggle this close by a huge margin.

[seattleweatherguy]

Keep it moving north!

[BLI snowman]

South! LOL

[Perturbed Member]

Good bit further south

[Omegaraptor]

Keep it over Portland!

[snow_wizard]

No idea how... but the MM5 NAM is completely different than the NAM and has everything so far north that even Seattle is too warm by Monday morning.

 

Again... just looking for trends.   Looking at all models for trends... even if they are garbage they still tend to trend in one direction or another and that is more information. 

 

What is comical is that the MM5 NAM is totally different than the NAM itself and not sure how that happens.   

 

 

The NAM MM5 is atrocious.  On the first round of cold that hit that model spit out a high in the low 40s on the day it was in the 20s during the afternoon.

[MossMan]

6z will jog it north. Big time. Book it.

[Guest CulverJosh]

We know nothing yet.

[Timmy]

I defended you, Tim, when you did your whole “publicity stunt” a month ago. But you are being pretty rediculus now.

[GHweatherChris]

Good bit further south

Not really

[TT-SEA]

The NAM MM5 is atrocious.  On the first round of cold that hit that model spit out a high in the low 40s on the day it was in the 20s during the afternoon.

 

 

Yeah... its really bad.   The only reason I ever look at it is for trends.

 

The GFS MOS has been terrible this month as well... way worse than normal.    It did not even recognize the snow event and cold last week.   It just plugged along with mid 40s every day.   Its normally decent... way better than the operational GFS output.   But it seemingly is not programmed to even recognize that this pattern is happening.  

[snow_wizard]

The good news for Seattle with a further south track on Monday is the fact it means the cold air is more entrenched.  Hopefully we will get ours on Sunday morning.  Right now I'm going 1 to 4 inches for the EPSL at that time.  I reserve the right to change this though.

[Perturbed Member]

Not really

See for yourself

18z

 

 

00z

 

[Jesse]

About as acrimonious a north/south divide over the path of a low as I’ve ever seen here. Except for some northern saints like SnowWizard and Snowmizer who are being pretty cool about the whole thing. And the new guy from Tacoma.

 

Definitely nice to see the 00z GFS trend south, though. Any sort of trend like that at this juncture is pretty important to see if Portland hopes to get anything.

[MossMan]

About as acrimonious a north/south divide over the path of a low as I’ve ever seen here. Except for some northern saints like SnowWizard and Snowmizer who are being pretty cool about the whole thing. And the new guy from Tacoma.

 

Definitely nice to see the 00z GFS trend south, though. Any sort of trend like that at this juncture is pretty important to see if Portland hopes to get anything.

Lynnwood and points north.

[Jesse]

Lynnwood and points north.

Shut up.

[Requiem]

Shut up.

Vancouver B. C to Redding.

[Perturbed Member]

About as acrimonious a north/south divide over the path of a low as I’ve ever seen here. Except for some northern saints like SnowWizard and Snowmizer who are being pretty cool about the whole thing. And the new guy from Tacoma.

 

Definitely nice to see the 00z GFS trend south, though. Any sort of trend like that at this juncture is pretty important to see if Portland hopes to get anything.

 

 

00z FV3 trended way south as well and it was the first model to trend aggressively north. 

[Jesse]

Vancouver B. C to Redding.

Mexico City to ten miles south of Mossman’s house.