February 2019 Weather Observations and Discussion Part 2

[Perturbed Member]

Looks like the 00z ECMWF brings the low onshore a bit south of Lincoln City and tracks it NE? Still looks a hair south of the 12z but more precip?

[bainbridgekid]

For who? For what?

It's still to soon to know, but I feel pretty good about Seattle's chances. 3 days is a long time for things to keep creeping North.

 

Doesn't mean it will necessarily happen again, but I'd always rather be rooting for a North trend than hoping for a low to stay South.

 

Not really, that low took a b-line for the Olympic Peninsula then it just stalled out. This doesn't have the look of a system stalling out, looks more like Feb 5, 2017. This area got nailed with the Feb 11, 2019 event, but will end up with nothing from this one. This low actually comes ashore and tracks well inland, pretty big difference.

Reminds me a lot of that one as well.

[Requiem]

So, are we just ignoring all the other models? I made the mistake of relying almost solely on the EURO last week like an imbecile and look what happened.

[ShawniganLake]

Looks like the euro has a second low tracking into Washington later Tuesday as well

[Frontal Snowsquall]

But this event will apparently end up just like 2/11/19 (no snow for PDX). Cause it’s identical?

 

Honestly the models were decent tonight.

There's still lots of uncertainty in the track. Right now it's best to take a blend of all the models. I'm liking where PDX is sitting at the moment. We will see some snow. The question just remains to be seen how much and if we transition over to ice. Hopefully we get a clearer picture tomorrow.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

So, are we just ignoring all the other models? I made the mistake of relying almost solely on the EURO last week like an imbecile and look what happened.

There are no rules. Look at all the models and make your own assessment. Nothing is a lock yet.

[Requiem]

There's still lots of uncertainty in the track. Right now it's best to take a blend of all the models. I'm liking where PDX is sitting at the moment. We will see some snow. The question just remains to be seen how much and if we transition over to ice. Hopefully we get a clearer picture tomorrow.

I would be a-okay with an inch or two with some ZR.

[bainbridgekid]

Haha good one. How much snow have you seen this month already?

23".It's been by far the best weather month of my life.

 

I'm not trying to be a d*ck and am not nearly as confident as Tim is, but it does have that feel. I'd feel better if I lived in the South Sound than up here in Everett though.

 

Just going to have to keep watching the models the next 24-48 hours. Going to be a hell of a ride.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

If the euro is right we all will have to give the icon a little respect.

[snow_wizard]

Holy crap.  Fantastic Euro run!  If this verifies what an amazing cherry on top for a great month.  I love how it gives this area several inches of snow on Monday and then drop temps to the mid 20s Monday night.  Simply delicious!

 

BTW it still drops 1 to 2 inches on Sunday morning as well.

[TT-SEA]

It’s going to be interesting to see the snow map.

 

 

System on Tuesday night zips through and then its up near 50 on Wednesday with showers.

 

[snow_wizard]

What about your area makes you prone to them?

 

Warm nose at the mid levels with cold low level east winds.

[Requiem]

23".It's been by far the best weather month of my life.

 

I'm not trying to be a d*ck and am not nearly as confident as Tim is, but it does have that feel. I'd feel better if I lived in the South Sound than up here in Everett though.

 

Just going to have to keep watching the models the next 24-48 hours. Going to be a hell of a ride.

Don’t know why this winter is being so D**n cruel to areas south of Centralia.

[Deweydog]

Odd. Very odd.

You saw that too? Very strange...

[Bryant]

6z GFS will be VERY telling!

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Feb 5, 2017:

 

 

ECMWF for next Monday:

 

 

Feb 11, 2019:

 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Don’t know why this winter is being so d**n cruel to areas south of Centralia.

Nature didn't think twice about it. There have been many times we got the shaft up here.

[Perturbed Member]

Yeah the 00z ECMWF is indeed a hair north, stronger low. Not all that far off from the ICON. Way too close for comfort for PDX. 

 

I guess it is EURO and ICON vs all other models now. 

[HighlandExperience]

[Requiem]

Nature didn't think twice about it. There have been many times we got the shaft up here.

Not to this extent within recent memory. 15+ inches of snow regionwide for you guys with a lot of areas down here with zeroes.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Yeah the 00z ECMWF is indeed a hair north, stronger low. Not all that far off from the ICON. Way too close for comfort for PDX. 

 

I guess it is EURO and ICON vs all other models now.

 

That's a big mother fukin hair!

[Frontal Snowsquall]

I would be a-okay with an inch or two with some ZR.

That'll be enough to give you a snow day.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Not to this extent within recent memory. 15+ inches of snow regionwide for you guys with a lot of areas down here with zeroes.

You've only been around a little while friend.

[Perturbed Member]

That's a big mother fukin hair!

 

12z vs 00z ECMWF landfall location is very similar. 00z is only slightly further north but the low is stronger and is juicer in general. It is way further north relative to most of the other models. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Cliff mass was already spotted in high heels and a 8 dollar k mart dress hitch hiking out of town.

[MossMan]

Not really, that low took a b-line for the Olympic Peninsula then it just stalled out. This doesn't have the look of a system stalling out, looks more like Feb 5, 2017. This area got nailed with the Feb 11, 2019 event, but will end up with nothing from this one. This low actually comes ashore and tracks well inland, pretty big difference.

I did very well with both setups!

Pics of morning of 2/6/17

And pic of 2/11/19

[Requiem]

That'll be enough to give you a snow day.

If we’re not getting historical snow like Seattle that’s a welcome compensation prize.

[snow_wizard]

If This happens again this month will be a once in 150 year deal. I dont buy it yet.

 

If this run verifies I will be popping a champagne cork!  An absolute masterpiece this month.  Even with the one screwing I got still an amazing outcome.  Still only cautiously optimistic though.

 

BTW the much colder temps being shown on the ECMWF run would guarantee SEA to end up third coldest at worst for the month of February.  That in combo with snowiest Feb for Seattle since 1916 and largest number of freezing low temps for Seattle in February since 1936.

[snow_wizard]

Looks like the 00z ECMWF brings the low onshore a bit south of Lincoln City and tracks it NE? Still looks a hair south of the 12z but more precip?

 

This run is insanely wet.  This almost looks like a poor mans 1884.  That cold wave ended with a similar, but larger event.

[MossMan]

System on Tuesday night zips through and then its up near 50 on Wednesday with showers.

 

Snowmizer better gas up his plow truck again!

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Snapped this pic the night of the big event. Looks like the pass.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Snowmizer better gas up his plow truck again!

No kidding! I did pretty good i made 7800 dollars in 5 days!

[VancouverIslandSouth]

I did very well with both setups!

Pics of morning of 2/6/17

And pic of 2/11/19

 

You probably did better with the secondary low that formed off the island on the 6th. That brought about 6" of snow here, but the main event was more of a south sound special and brought almost nothing this far north.

[TT-SEA]

Just told my kids there will likely be no school on Monday and Tuesday again.    I have not been wrong yet in predicting school closures this month.  

 

It is very likely that they will end up not going to school even once from February 9th through the 26th... and school will have been closed due to snow on 9 out of the last 12 school days by Tuesday.    

 

Complete insanity.  

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Total snow maps for Washington will be interesting.

[MossMan]

No kidding! I did pretty good i made 7800 dollars in 5 days!

https://komonews.com/news/local/idaho-teen-says-he-made-35k-in-4-days-plowing-seattle-02-21-2019

[Omegaraptor]

VANCOUVER TO REDDING EPIC FEBRUARY

 

Keep the train going! Dump the Willamette Valley in fresh snow!

[epiceast]

LIke I said 00Z runs were critical. Now on to 12z, still critical runs!

[MossMan]

You probably did better with the secondary low that formed off the island on the 6th. That brought about 6" of snow here, but the main event was more of a south sound special and brought almost nothing this far north.

Ahhh gotcha!

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Onto the 00z EURO EPS and the 06z model runs.