Jesse Posted February 24, 2019 Report Share Posted February 24, 2019 Sort of obvious that the blocking is not going anywhere no matter what any model shows. I am now wondering if Alaska will ever have a storm again. Yeah, getting pretty excited at the prospects of a cold and wet spring here. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted February 24, 2019 Report Share Posted February 24, 2019 I’m hoping the southward trend has ended. We should be cold enough for snow tonight, just a question of whether precipitation gets here.I will just say this. I would rather be in a situation where the models are missing us to the south leading up to an event rather than to the north. Since a bust in our favor is a lot more likely with the former. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted February 24, 2019 Report Share Posted February 24, 2019 I will just say this. I would rather be in a situation where the models are missing us to the south leading up to an event rather than to the north. Since a bust in our favor is a lot more likely with the former.Ja. Weagle’s write-up is also very informative this morning, taking into account some past trends and surface observations. “Perhaps of more importance for the majority of the population in our forecast area is how the period from tonight through Monday evening evolves. East winds are already developing through the Columbia Gorge and although they may ease a little this afternoon, they are expected to return even stronger tonight and Monday morning. Confidence is increasing that temperatures will be cold enough for snow north of the frontal zone as it lifts slowly northward tonight and early Monday. Most 00z models keep the frontal zone further south than prior runs as another weak low develops offshore and moves onshore somewhere on the central or southern Oregon Coast. The 00z GFS, reinforced by its 06z run, keep the front so far south that the PDX metro area would barely receive any precipitation Monday while Salem and Eugene deal with the potential for a major snow event. However, the 00z ECMWF is further north (albeit south of earlier runs), certainly keeping anywhere south of Kelso and Astoria in play for significant snow. Looking further into the 00z GEFS and ECMWF ensembles, there remains significant support for a track well north of the one shown by the 00z deterministic GFS, with some members still even north of the 00z ECMWF track. Believe that much of the uncertainty lies in whether strong northern stream energy pushing southward into the Pacific from the Yukon can interact and phase with a progressive shortwave now near 38N/140W. The ECMWF has been initializing the southern shortwave better than the GFS for the past few model cycles, and based on latest water vapor imagery it appears doubtful that the southern shortwave will be completely left behind by the slow-moving upper trough off the WA coast. Thus I am still leaning toward the more northern solutions for the front and low track, as any phasing between northern and southern systems would likely lead to a stronger (but still modest) low than depicted by the 00z GFS... and stronger lows tend to curl further north than most models suggest. ” 1 Quote "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
epiceast Posted February 24, 2019 Report Share Posted February 24, 2019 I will just say this. I would rather be in a situation where the models are missing us to the south leading up to an event rather than to the north. Since a bust in our favor is a lot more likely with the former.CWI think this is the second time models trended a snowstorm this far south in a decade. Last one caused a lot of unhappy SEA CWA posters, but turned out alright for PDX. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted February 24, 2019 Report Share Posted February 24, 2019 12Z UKMET total precipitation through Sunday 10pm and Monday 10pm. To get the precipitation that falls between Sunday 10pm to Monday 10pm, subtract from the two. Looks like around 0.5 to 0.6 falls around PDX during that time frame. Not bad with more precipitation just to the south. If the heavier stuff can reach further up North than we're going to do good. As it stands not bad for some accumulations. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 24, 2019 Report Share Posted February 24, 2019 Yeah, getting pretty excited at the prospects of a cold and wet spring here. Not sure about that all. Wave lengths will eventually change as we move towards the warm season and if it remains blocky then it could very well be just the opposite. We have not had really persistent precipitation for months even up here... which seems to makes sense since everything slows down during low solar periods. I think it might end up being a big benefit to get this near record setting, long duration block and western troughing in February and maybe March. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prairiedog Posted February 24, 2019 Report Share Posted February 24, 2019 La Pine Or.Brothers placeWe have friends that sold their place here and now live on property they have (cabin) on the Deschutes R. in La Pine. They're looking to get pummeled tonight into tomorrow. Similar pics I got from them as well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted February 24, 2019 Report Share Posted February 24, 2019 Not sure about that all. Wave lengths will eventually change as we move towards the warm season and if it remains blocky then it could very well be just the opposite. We have not had really persistent precipitation for months even up here... which seems to makes sense since it seems like everything slows down during low solar. I think it might end up being a big benefit to get this near record setting long duration block and western troughing in February and maybe March. And tomorrow’s storm will slam Puget Sound and the EPS is never wrong. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted February 24, 2019 Report Share Posted February 24, 2019 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted February 24, 2019 Report Share Posted February 24, 2019 12Z UKMET total precipitation through Sunday 10pm and Monday 10pm. To get the precipitation that falls between Sunday 10pm to Monday 10pm, subtract from the two. Looks like around 0.5 to 0.6 falls around PDX during that time frame. Not bad with more precipitation just to the south. If the heavier stuff can reach further up North than we're going to do good. As it stands not bad for some accumulations. us_model-en-087-0_modgbr_2019022412_18_484_220.png us_model-en-087-0_modgbr_2019022412_42_484_220.pngNot giving up on this one yet, and looks like you aren’t either! I’m glad Quote "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted February 24, 2019 Report Share Posted February 24, 2019 I will also add that the Pacific Analysis map shows this low at 1004 MB, stronger than the GFS or NAM has at this time. https://ocean.weather.gov/P_sfc_full_ocean_color.png 3 Quote "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 24, 2019 Report Share Posted February 24, 2019 And tomorrow’s storm will trend way north and the EPS is never wrong. Yep. And you said it was very unlikely to turn cold in February during a Nino. This block has been insane. I am glad it happened in February and maybe March. I doubt it stays in the same place until July. But blocking is a very good bet during low solar and its going to continue. I have been saying that for a long time. I like the odds of nice weather as we go into the warm season. I don't see an active storm track and persistent rain this spring and summer. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted February 24, 2019 Report Share Posted February 24, 2019 Balmy 40 degrees and cloudy at the Lowe’s parking lot in Smokey Point. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted February 24, 2019 Report Share Posted February 24, 2019 Yep. And you said it was very unlikely to turn cold in February during a Nino. Because it generally is. That’s an easy call based on past history. And I didn’t post about it 28 times a day and try to cram it down everyone’s throat who disagreed, and STILL end up being wrong. Take notes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 24, 2019 Report Share Posted February 24, 2019 Sun is shining here... Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prairiedog Posted February 24, 2019 Report Share Posted February 24, 2019 Yep. And you said it was very unlikely to turn cold in February during a Nino. This block has been insane. I am glad it happened in February and maybe March. I doubt it stays in the same place until July. But blocking is a very good bet during low solar and its going to continue. I have been saying that for a long time. I like the odds of nice weather as we go into the warm season. I don't see an active storm track and persistent rain this spring and summer. That would also mean a slower more even snow melt and run off for the rivers. That's good for me as a salmon and steelhead fisherman, it's good for irrigation, river levels for smolt moving down the Columbia and other tribs. Don't know how that might help during the fire season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 24, 2019 Author Report Share Posted February 24, 2019 Looks like the ECMWF blew it on precip amounts for this morning. That model has really lost some of my respect over the past few days. Looks like something is about to hit my area so we'll see. At any rate...there is some serious cold air in play with this Arctic front that is nearing the area. Prince George dropped to -20 earlier this morning and Williams Lake is currently at 1. The NWS is going for temps in the 8 to 11 degrees below normal range in the coming days. About what I have been guessing. 2 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted February 24, 2019 Report Share Posted February 24, 2019 Looks like the ECMWF blew it on precip amounts for this morning. That model has really lost some of my respect over the past few days. Looks like something is about to hit my area so we'll see. At any rate...there is some serious cold air in play with this Arctic front that is nearing the area. Prince George dropped to -20 earlier this morning and Williams Lake is currently at 1. The NWS is going for temps in the 8 to 11 degrees below normal range in the coming days. About what I have been guessing.Gonna get COLD the next several days. Hopefully many of us can go into it with at least a little snow. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 24, 2019 Report Share Posted February 24, 2019 FWIW... total snow through Wednesday evening per the WRF. Oregon Cascades! Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted February 24, 2019 Report Share Posted February 24, 2019 Not giving up on this one yet, and looks like you aren’t either! I’m glad I'm not. When I take a look back at 2-19-93,1-1-04, 2-6-14 and 1-10-17, more moisture came in than expected. Hopefully 2-25-19 will do the same. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted February 24, 2019 Report Share Posted February 24, 2019 I'm not. When I take a look back at 2-19-93,1-1-04, 2-6-14 and 1-10-17, more moisture came in than expected. Hopefully 2-25-19 will do the same.One must also remember that 1/1/04 (for sure) and 1/10/17 (possibly?) were even further south than the southernmost extent of this one (in terms of model runs). Add in the fact that 12Z runs showed promising trends and that the low is stronger than currently modeled, we have a recipe for something alright. 1 Quote "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted February 24, 2019 Report Share Posted February 24, 2019 I will also add that the Pacific Analysis map shows this low at 1004 MB, stronger than the GFS or NAM has at this time. https://ocean.weather.gov/P_sfc_full_ocean_color.pngNice observation! Hopefully it will strengthen more than expected and make landfall north of Cape Blanco. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted February 24, 2019 Report Share Posted February 24, 2019 Nice observation! Hopefully it will strengthen more than expected and make landfall north of Cape Blanco.I know Weagle (though a wonderful forecaster) gets a bit overexcited sometimes, but his rationale of strengthening lows curving further north in regards to this system is very relevant. 1 Quote "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prairiedog Posted February 24, 2019 Report Share Posted February 24, 2019 Gonna get COLD the next several days. Hopefully many of us can go into it with at least a little snow.I haven't looked today but the 850's looked -8 or maybe colder. I think I saw something yesterday that Andrew posted that showed -11? That would be really cold this late in the season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted February 24, 2019 Report Share Posted February 24, 2019 It overdid precip for whole region but i live in South Hill and its 1-2 inches. Looks like the ECMWF blew it on precip amounts for this morning. That model has really lost some of my respect over the past few days. Looks like something is about to hit my area so we'll see. At any rate...there is some serious cold air in play with this Arctic front that is nearing the area. Prince George dropped to -20 earlier this morning and Williams Lake is currently at 1. The NWS is going for temps in the 8 to 11 degrees below normal range in the coming days. About what I have been guessing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted February 24, 2019 Report Share Posted February 24, 2019 One must also remember that 1/1/04 (for sure) and 1/10/17 (possibly?) were even further south than the southernmost extent of this one (in terms of model runs). Add in the fact that 12Z runs showed promising trends and that the low is stronger than currently modeled, we have a recipe for something alright.Yeah, you're right. Hopefully the 12Z EURO will show more moisture making its way north compared to last night. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 24, 2019 Author Report Share Posted February 24, 2019 Well I'll be dipped. Some really impressive stuff on the radar about to hit my area. Looks like a band might be setting up on the outer edge of the continental air that has seeped in here. My dp is below freezing now so this might get interesting. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 24, 2019 Author Report Share Posted February 24, 2019 FWIW... total snow through Wednesday evening per the WRF. Oregon Cascades! Talk about nuclear. Sheesh! Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted February 24, 2019 Report Share Posted February 24, 2019 Well I'll be dipped. Some really impressive stuff on the radar about to hit my area. Looks like a band might be setting up on the outer edge of the continental air that has seeped in here. My dp is below freezing now so this might get interesting.Fingers crossed, hope it gets crazy! Quote "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prairiedog Posted February 24, 2019 Report Share Posted February 24, 2019 I know Weagle (though a wonderful forecaster) gets a bit overexcited sometimes, but his rationale of strengthening lows curving further north in regards to this system is very relevant."Overly excited"? You're kidding I hope. That would mean he's putting out forecasts that are biased and emotional. Where do you come up with this kind of stuff? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted February 24, 2019 Report Share Posted February 24, 2019 Looks like ec is south lol. But it also has the low at 1014 at zero hr and that is not correct. 1 Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Swamp Posted February 24, 2019 Report Share Posted February 24, 2019 Everything is white in the swamp now. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 24, 2019 Author Report Share Posted February 24, 2019 The sky is getting really dark here now. Maybe...just maybe. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 24, 2019 Author Report Share Posted February 24, 2019 Everything is white in the swamp now. In the swamp? Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted February 24, 2019 Report Share Posted February 24, 2019 The sky is getting really dark here now. Maybe...just maybe. same here, lots of activity in south sound this morning Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted February 24, 2019 Report Share Posted February 24, 2019 Quote "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 24, 2019 Report Share Posted February 24, 2019 Early tomorrow morning... slight shift south. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
overcast Posted February 24, 2019 Report Share Posted February 24, 2019 Dumping on the north tip of South Hill Puyallup for 45 min. An inch already. Surprised this little band has produced so well. The most beautiful picturesque flakes of the season. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted February 24, 2019 Report Share Posted February 24, 2019 Looks like ec is south lol. But it also has the low at 1014 at zero hr and that is not correct.Yeah that's a bad initialization. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 24, 2019 Author Report Share Posted February 24, 2019 Just started snowing here. The fact the swamp is getting sticking snow makes me very hopeful. This is probably the driest snow I've seen at 37 degrees. A sure sign there will be significant evaporative cooling. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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