February 2019 Weather Observations and Discussion Part 2

[crf450ish]

The 00Z GFS and FV3 are basically dry for western WA for the next 10 day other than some dribs and drabs of precip on a couple days.

 

GFS is basically dry until 324 hours.

http://i.imgur.com/ZpjNE5I.jpg

[Jesse]

Side note... the ECMWF on Friday morning showed about 6-8 inches of snow for my area over the weekend. That did not even come close to happening. And in fact... the existing snow cover melted down more.

 

It does not do well with marginal temp situations... it assumes everything is sticking and accumulating but that is rarely the case. It was in the low 40s each day here and did not go below freezing at all except for about 2 hours on Friday afternoon when it was 31 in a c-zone and then was up to 36 by 10 p.m.

 

Something to keep in mind when we see those incredible ECMWF snowfall total maps covering many days.

If only there was some way to get people to stop posting those ridiculous Euro snow maps all the time. Very misleading.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Here's a good live webcam from Bend, OR. Looks like they have solid snowcover on the ground already. Their suppose to get pounded overnight.

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-A3LyNqR1Fs

[ShawniganLake]

That's pretty darn impressive considering some of the cold Decembers you've had and Jan 2017.

As far as February’s go, we have a shot at 3rd. 1936 and 1989 are out of reach.

[MossMan]

Day 22 with snowcover...incredible! I documented each day so far in pics in the winter pic thread. Even though I received 34” in Dec. 2008 I don’t believe it stayed (other than piles) much over 18 days or so. These 22” have really stuck around nicely!

[GHweatherChris]

Winter is over...

[Requiem]

I think that low is still going to veer north. Even mesoscale models agree.

[epiceast]

Here's a good live webcam from Bend, OR. Looks like they have solid snowcover on the ground already. Their suppose to get pounded overnight.

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-A3LyNqR1Fs

It's surprising there were areas in the columbia basin that did not have solid snowcover a couple days ago. Constant lows sliding inland into Oregon, constant cold air reloads...

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Still steady light snow.

[TT-SEA]

If only there was some way to get people to stop posting those ridiculous Euro snow maps all the time. Very misleading.

 

I don't like posting the snow total maps covering long periods of time.  It usually just amplifies and exaggerates the issues with marginal temps because that is often an issue here.

 

It can do great for specific periods and events... particularly if the temps are below freezing.   It did really well overall up here on the 2/8 event for example... when most of the area was in the 20s when it was snowing.

[Jesse]

The 00Z GFS and FV3 are basically dry for western WA for the next 10 day other than some dribs and drabs of precip on a couple days.

 

GFS is basically dry until 324 hours.

Hopefully those drought conditions can start sneaking back in down here. We started making some progress moving out of it this month, was getting frighteningly wet!

[GHweatherChris]

Low has finally moved northish according to IR.

[TT-SEA]

Hopefully those drought conditions can start sneaking back in down here. We started making some progress moving out of it this month, was getting frighteningly wet!

 

 

Only 2 inches of rain here this month... almost all on the first day.

 

And then 50+ inches of snow.

 

Still a little bit below normal for precip though.  I have a feeling 2019 might actually be the first drier than normal year since 2013 in this area.   Low solar and ENSO neutral working in our favor.  Sluggish jet stream.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

My friend at Crooked River Ranch has been getting pummeled all day with snow. He's already had a couple trees go down. He had about 4-5" before it even started snowing in Redmond.

[Requiem]

Low has finally moved northish according to IR.

Good news.

[seattleweatherguy]

Low has finally moved northish according to IR.

Keep it moving!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Remember last week when fresh off a drive through Roseburg I crowned them the worst non-coastal spot for winter weather in the PNW. Now they are getting slammed with a 12"+ snowstorm.

[MossMan]

Still steady light snow.

No BSF for you tonight!

[Jesse]

Only 2 inches of rain here this month... almost all on the first day.

 

And then 50+ inches of snow.

 

Still a little bit below normal for precip though.  I have a feeling 2019 might actually be the first drier than normal year since 2013 in this area.   Low solar and ENSO neutral working in our favor.  Sluggish jet stream.  

 

Indeed, the last low solar period from 2008-12 was known for its very dry springs and summers. The 2010 drought is not one I will soon forget.

[TT-SEA]

Hopefully those drought conditions can start sneaking back in down here. We started making some progress moving out of it this month, was getting frighteningly wet!

 

 

Also.. much of OR will have copious precip over the next 3 days.

 

That is where its needed.   

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

The scooter stopped at Walgreens and got a can of fix a flat. Snow movin north.

[Andrew.]

HRRR says maybe 10 hours of light snow in PDX

[Requiem]

HRRR says maybe 10 hours of light snow in PDX

HRRR shows some heavier bursts in there too.

[TT-SEA]

Indeed, the last low solar period from 2008-12 was known for its very dry springs and summers. The 2010 drought is not one I will soon forget.

 

Yeah... that was not low solar like this minimum. 

 

And 2009 was a gorgeous summer.  So was 2012.  

[Andrew.]

HRRR shows some heavier bursts in there too.

Yep and maybe an afternoon deformation band

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Kind of disappointing how fast the models zip this system through. Probably end up with highs in the low 40s most places. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Precip is further north than modeled.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

It's surprising there were areas in the columbia basin that did not have solid snowcover a couple days ago. Constant lows sliding inland into Oregon, constant cold air reloads...

First it was Eastern Washington getting slammed with heavy snow earlier this month, now it looks like it's Eastern Oregon's turn this week.

[Requiem]

Sigh.

 

https://mobile.twitter.com/MarkNelsenKPTV/status/1099900114854789125

[Jesse]

Yeah... that was not low solar like this minimum. 

 

[Jesse]

Kind of disappointing how fast the models zip this system through. Probably end up with highs in the low 40s most places. 

 

Mark is going with 35 for PDX tomorrow. 

[Requiem]

Precip is further north than modeled.

Hmm....

[Deweydog]

Indeed, the last low solar period from 2008-12 was known for its very dry springs and summers. The 2010 drought is not one I will soon forget.

You know things are slowing down for Seattle and Portland when this shitty banter fires back up.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Mark is going with 35 for PDX tomorrow. 

 

Unfortunately he also just stuck a fork in this event.

[Deweydog]

Mark is going with 35 for PDX tomorrow.

Haha.

[Requiem]

Unfortunately he also just stuck a fork in this event.

Yep, but he’s going off of GFS based models. Maybe things will be more north, who knows?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Dumping snow in Veneta per cams.

[seattleweatherguy]

Hmm....

How far further north?

[kidcubby]

https://twitter.com/marknelsenkptv/status/1099903552657403904?s=21

[TT-SEA]

 

 

I have a feeling this will be a blocky spring and summer.   Periods of deep troughing which does not always mean wet... and extended periods of ridging.   

 

Just a hunch.