March 2019 Observations and Discussion

[gabel23]

Jesus that’s a lot of snow on the 12Z GFS. Through hour 240 and more after this. Total qpf for the full run...

With last nights euro showing the same thing look out! I’m interested in seeing what this afternoons euro shows.

[gosaints]

Much weaker in the cold sector on the euro

[Hawkeye]

12z Euro - That's a lot of precip in areas that don't want it.

 

Total precip

 

Total snow precip

[gosaints]

Ya i hope this one craps the bed

[East Dubzz]

Man, what a beautiful day! Got our to the golf course and it was awesome! Swing wasn’t half bad either for the first round of the year

[Niko]

I don't think I saw a cloud today at all.

[Stormhunter87]

Fv3 showing a nasty storm around the 5th. Wild pattern

[Minny_Weather]

I don't trust the FV3 a day out, let alone 12 days out thankfully.

[Tom]

The wx was stupendously marvelous yesterday.  You can argue it was one of the best days of this Spring so far with calm winds, crystal clear blue skies and temps in the low 50's (50F is normal).  It's crazy to say that a "normal" day around here is a nice one.  Oh, it helped that it finally came on a weekend and not during the work week.  I actually ventured out into my back yard and collected branches that were ripped off the trees from the vicious wind storms in recent weeks.

 

'Tis the season for "Pneumonia Fronts" and "Cooler Near the Lake"....here's a good graphic showing the "why" behind stronger lake breezes in the Spring.

 

[Tom]

On this last week of March, we set our sights on one final storm to effect our Sub and models are trending towards a Plains/Lower GL's storm system.  I-80 special???  The last "share the wealth" of the season???  The Euro/EPS was the first model to see the storm target date of the 30th-31st and now the GFS is sorta heading in that direction.  Should be an interesting week of tracking this system as there will be arctic air to work with as a strong Canadian HP bleeds south into the pattern while a CO surface low ejects out into the central Plains and tracks near KC and through the MW in a west/east fashion.

 

00z EPS snow mean has blossomed across NE and somewhat growing in size the farther east you go.  I also posted the 00z Euro Control.

[Tom]

Now, who's ready for REAL Spring to finally show up???  As we flip the calendar into April, while it will be a chilly first few days or so of the month, the overall hemispheric pattern should shift away from the dominant -EPO pattern and flood Canada with warmth which will make its way into the northern/eastern Sub right around the target dates I've had in mind for a long time (April 6th/7th)...might even try to make it here a little earlier than that which would be welcomed by many.  But first, we have to get through this lousy, endlessly cool pattern that has been so dominant this entire month.  I think ORD has only had 4 or 5 AN days so far this month which is a far cry from a Spring-like pattern.

[westMJim]

The wx was stupendously marvelous yesterday.  You can argue it was one of the best days of this Spring so far with calm winds, crystal clear blue skies and temps in the low 50's (50F is normal).  It's crazy to say that a "normal" day around here is a nice one.  Oh, it helped that it finally came on a weekend and not during the work week.  I actually ventured out into my back yard and collected branches that were ripped off the trees from the vicious wind storms in recent weeks.

 

'Tis the season for "Pneumonia Fronts" and "Cooler Near the Lake"....here's a good graphic showing the "why" behind stronger lake breezes in the Spring.

 

"Cooler by the lake" is very common here on the Michigan side of the lake as well. And we get it from 4 of the Great Lakes. one of the biggest differences I have seen with the cooler by the lake was in June in Manitowoc, WI we had taken the boat across the lake and were staying in the downtown area and we went out to eat at a location just 3 miles from the motel. Downtown the outside reading in the car was just 42 but at the restaurant it was 86  after dinner back at the motel it was still just 45. 

[Tom]

"Cooler by the lake" is very common here on the Michigan side of the lake as well. And we get it from 4 of the Great Lakes. one of the biggest differences I have seen with the cooler by the lake was in June in Manitowoc, WI we had taken the boat across the lake and were staying in the downtown area and we went out to eat at a location just 3 miles from the motel. Downtown the outside reading in the car was just 42 but at the restaurant it was 86 after dinner back at the motel it was still just 45.

Wow, that’s an impressive temp gradient! From Summer to Winter in a span of only 3 Miles. Incredible.

[jaster220]

On this last week of March, we set our sights on one final storm to effect our Sub and models are trending towards a Plains/Lower GL's storm system. I-80 special??? The last "share the wealth" of the season??? The Euro/EPS was the first model to see the storm target date of the 30th-31st and now the GFS is sorta heading in that direction. Should be an interesting week of tracking this system as there will be arctic air to work with as a strong Canadian HP bleeds south into the pattern while a CO surface low ejects out into the central Plains and tracks near KC and through the MW in a west/east fashion.

 

00z EPS snow mean has blossomed across NE and somewhat growing in size the farther east you go. I also posted the 00z Euro Control.

Lol @ same old 2" line cutting through here. Par for this winter..

[jaster220]

"Cooler by the lake" is very common here on the Michigan side of the lake as well. And we get it from 4 of the Great Lakes. one of the biggest differences I have seen with the cooler by the lake was in June in Manitowoc, WI we had taken the boat across the lake and were staying in the downtown area and we went out to eat at a location just 3 miles from the motel. Downtown the outside reading in the car was just 42 but at the restaurant it was 86 after dinner back at the motel it was still just 45.

That's crazy

[Niko]

Lol @ same old 2" line cutting through here. Par for this winter..

[Niko]

Currently mostly cloudy and cold w temps in the 30s (32F). Some light snow possible late tanite w slippery conditions for tomorrow mornings rush. Tomorrow should feature a rather cold, blustery day after some morning snow w temps not getting outta the 30s and lows in the teens.

[Niko]

On this last week of March, we set our sights on one final storm to effect our Sub and models are trending towards a Plains/Lower GL's storm system.  I-80 special???  The last "share the wealth" of the season???  The Euro/EPS was the first model to see the storm target date of the 30th-31st and now the GFS is sorta heading in that direction.  Should be an interesting week of tracking this system as there will be arctic air to work with as a strong Canadian HP bleeds south into the pattern while a CO surface low ejects out into the central Plains and tracks near KC and through the MW in a west/east fashion.

 

00z EPS snow mean has blossomed across NE and somewhat growing in size the farther east you go.  I also posted the 00z Euro Control.

That looks scary. Just a tad north of my area is the hvy snow accumulations. Still puts me in a couple of inches though. Tbh, if I am to received a big dog w 10"+ w this one, then, I'll accept this snowstorm. Might as well go out w a bang. FWIW, my snowthrower still has some gasoline inside its tank. Might as well use it up instead of emptying it out uselessly by having my machine running for nothing just to empty out the tank.

[Stacsh]

"Cooler by the lake" is very common here on the Michigan side of the lake as well. And we get it from 4 of the Great Lakes. one of the biggest differences I have seen with the cooler by the lake was in June in Manitowoc, WI we had taken the boat across the lake and were staying in the downtown area and we went out to eat at a location just 3 miles from the motel. Downtown the outside reading in the car was just 42 but at the restaurant it was 86 after dinner back at the motel it was still just 45.

Living in Grand Haven I certainly know about this. I work in GR and some summer days when it’s 90 in GR I need a long sleeve shirt when I get home in the evening. Especially when the fog rolls in around 5:30 pm on clear days in June and July. Drops temps briefly 20-30 degrees along the shore.

[james1976]

I would love to see Waterloo set the record and then immediately flip to spring. That would be awesome.

[East Dubzz]

Got .20” overnight and this morning. Temp is currently at 47.

[Hawkeye]

Models are still struggling with the late-week system.  The trend today is to sag farther south.  A cold front swings through and stalls to the south.  Then, more energy rides along the front. 

 

Here's the 12z euro

 

Total precip

 

Snow precip

[Tom]

Yesterday's severe storms down near Amarillo, TX produced these unique lightning strikes flashing upward into the sky...

 

[OmahaSnowFan]

Had .50” of rain overnight. Looking forward to the 60s and possible 70s this week

[East Dubzz]

No thank you on the snow, please.

[snowstorm83]

Wednesday is looking toasty. Mid 70s at least are likely, warmest since early October. Of course its probably going to snow a couple days later though 

[pack402]

My home and property took a huge hit from the floods. I can only hope we luck out and miss the heaviest of the precip. March can be so difficult in our region, will be a huge bummer if we can’t dry out a bit.

[Minny_Weather]

Still in Fargo. Cold and windy. Plenty of snow on the ground here despite a warm past few days, though bare patches on grass are becoming more obvious. 25°F.

[Tom]

Happy Monday all!  It's a blustery and cold (34F) morning with winds howling (N 24, G33) out of the NNE ever since the lake enhanced CF swept down the lake late last evening.  It's back to Winter early this week, then another hint at Spring by the middle of the week, before we head back to Winter again late week with our next Spring storm.  I'll start a storm thread in my next post.

[gosaints]

The cold shot is looking less impressive.

[gabel23]

Yesterday's severe storms down near Amarillo, TX produced these unique lightning strikes flashing upward into the sky...

 

It's looks like sprites!

[jaster220]

45F and crystal blue skies in Marshall currently. Much much better day than was forecast. "Winter return" fail thankfully. It's actually just as nice as Saturday was around these parts. Solar summer baby! 

[Stacsh]

45F and crystal blue skies in Marshall currently. Much much better day than was forecast. "Winter return" fail thankfully. It's actually just as nice as Saturday was around these parts. Solar summer baby! 

It always seems this time of year with sun temps well exceed forecasts.  

[East Dubzz]

Weather yesterday was awesome, and today looks like it could be even nicer. Heading to spotter training tonight - finally!

[gosaints]

These are 850's and not 2m temps as they show a different look.  There are a couple days mixed in during the Week 1-2 period with warmth but generally are trending cooler in the extended.  The  next few days are prob the most ideal before it turns active next week but you may escape the rains early next week.  I'm looking for a storm later next week in your neck of the woods.

The 6-10 day map that I had posted for this period is gonna end up on the money.

[Niko]

Sunny and gorgeous outside w temps climbing into the 30s and 40s after a cold start.

[Niko]

Currently sunny and 38F. Splendid day!

[jaster220]

Currently sunny and 38F. Splendid day!

 

44F attm - not sure we make the 46F in the grid

[Niko]

44F attm - not sure we make the 46F in the grid

Still feels pleasant enough. My average high has now reached 50F and low of 34F. Feels great and also the days are soooo much longer. Awesome indeed!

[Niko]

Currently at 32F w clear skies. Lows will be dipping into the 20s tanite.