Grizzcoat Posted March 3, 2019 Report Share Posted March 3, 2019 Figured I'd start a thread for this event... 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted March 3, 2019 Author Report Share Posted March 3, 2019 DMX most recent AFD-Our attention will then turn to the first of two systems to endthe week, with the second appearing to be most impactful. Tempswill have not rebounded sufficiently for anything but snow withthe first as it tops the short wave ridge into the MO Valley lateWednesday Night. Confidence with this system is medium at bestwith the GFS farther north and more bullish for Iowa and the ECfarther south toward the immediate MO River Valley. Both solutionsreflect phased warm/theta-e advection, frontogenesis and DPVA soa period of at least moderate snow is expected, it just seems tobe a matter of whether this will be in northern Missouri or up tocentral Iowa. 4 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted March 4, 2019 Report Share Posted March 4, 2019 0z NAM gives Nebraska a nice snowstorm. Farther south than earlier GFS runs. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted March 4, 2019 Report Share Posted March 4, 2019 0z NAM gives Nebraska a nice snowstorm. Farther south than earlier GFS runs.I was noticing that on the 18z run. It was following the fv3 run. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted March 4, 2019 Report Share Posted March 4, 2019 0z NAM gives Nebraska a nice snowstorm. Farther south than earlier GFS runs.Just to note the Nam has the low placement farther north than the 18z GFS Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted March 4, 2019 Author Report Share Posted March 4, 2019 00Z GFS not wavering... Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iowawx Posted March 4, 2019 Report Share Posted March 4, 2019 Yes, the GFS is still showing moderate to heavy snow for most of Iowa for Thursday. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted March 4, 2019 Author Report Share Posted March 4, 2019 If anything- it went North -- not South. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iowawx Posted March 4, 2019 Report Share Posted March 4, 2019 Widespread 5-7 inch totals for areas south of highway 20 and north of highway 34 in Iowa. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted March 4, 2019 Author Report Share Posted March 4, 2019 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted March 4, 2019 Report Share Posted March 4, 2019 Story of my winter if the gfs is right.....I get missed either north or south. I’m feeling optimistic with it being the furthest north of all the models. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted March 4, 2019 Report Share Posted March 4, 2019 00z UK - More juiced for Nebraska... would be quite a solid storm. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted March 4, 2019 Report Share Posted March 4, 2019 00z UK - More juiced for Nebraska... would be quite a solid storm. looks good. In the bullseye this far out..what could go wrong lol 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted March 4, 2019 Report Share Posted March 4, 2019 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted March 4, 2019 Report Share Posted March 4, 2019 Looks identical to the Canadian; of note we might me looking at another sharpe cut off. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted March 4, 2019 Report Share Posted March 4, 2019 00z euro looks unchanged so far Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted March 4, 2019 Report Share Posted March 4, 2019 Euro Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted March 4, 2019 Report Share Posted March 4, 2019 Tonight's euro really craps the system out once it leaves Nebraska. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted March 4, 2019 Report Share Posted March 4, 2019 Oh come on... is it really going to be this difficult to get the last 0.3” for 50 on the year?! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FarmerRick Posted March 4, 2019 Report Share Posted March 4, 2019 So sick of winter!! Bring on the warmth!!!! 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted March 4, 2019 Report Share Posted March 4, 2019 So sick of winter!! Bring on the warmth!!!!I am starting to hit that level. Snow is now starting to be useless as the sun angle is getting stronger, days are longer, next week the hour goes an hr ahead and need I go on. I am sure you get the picture. Looking forward towards severe weather. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted March 4, 2019 Report Share Posted March 4, 2019 It’s the long-range NAM and is often on drugs, but it took a good jump north for the Thursday system. Come on... all I need is like a half inch and we can call it good haha 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted March 4, 2019 Report Share Posted March 4, 2019 GFS still holding further north and decent strength into E Iowa. Further south than the 00z run, but not anything like the Euro. Euro and GFS are quite at odds. The Friday system that hit MN was better handled by the Euro, we'll see if it does the same with this one or not. I have a feeling it will. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted March 4, 2019 Report Share Posted March 4, 2019 Omaha appears to be in a good spot. The NAM, GFS, FV3, and ICON all have a strip of several inches through that area. The Canadian is still a bit farther south. The anti-dome is still on full power. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted March 4, 2019 Report Share Posted March 4, 2019 Cutoff is right over the Lancaster/Saunders county line. I don't care if we get snow from this but if we do I'd like more than a half inch. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
erburns18 Posted March 4, 2019 Report Share Posted March 4, 2019 Blah I'm ready to go open water fishing Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted March 4, 2019 Report Share Posted March 4, 2019 Very interesting. BTW the second storm the GFS is going explosive with it. If that runs any colder at all we will have a big blizzard Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted March 4, 2019 Author Report Share Posted March 4, 2019 I never give give up on winter when it has a chance. Summers in IA are much too long and mainly boring/ hot/ and full of bugs and bikers that think they own the roads. Only good thing about it is that it allows the trees to grow that provide wood to heat my home. This extended cold/snow pack just means it's closer to next winter. Roll on Winter!! 4 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted March 4, 2019 Report Share Posted March 4, 2019 Very interesting. BTW the second storm the GFS is going explosive with it. If that runs any colder at all we will have a big blizzardThat has the look of big Nebraska and Plains spring storms with rain, then heavy snow and blizzard conditions. If the low stays across Kansas we are in the game. If it would cut up through western Nebraska to the Dakotas would be a lot of rain and warmer temps. And I am just seeing the GFS with a 3rd storm a few days later. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted March 4, 2019 Report Share Posted March 4, 2019 That has the look of big Nebraska and Plains spring storms with rain, then heavy snow and blizzard conditions. If the low stays across Kansas we are in the game. If it would cut up through western Nebraska to the Dakotas would be a lot of rain and warmer temps. And I am just seeing the GFS with a 3rd storm a few days later.Yeah fv3 is also showing it too. Very interesting few days ahead. I think the models are also having trouble accounting for the snow pack we have. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted March 4, 2019 Report Share Posted March 4, 2019 Yeah fv3 is also showing it too. Very interesting few days ahead. I think the models are also having trouble accounting for the snow pack we have.Correct, Hastings and local Mets. have both said the large, deep snowpack is going to play havoc with the models. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted March 4, 2019 Report Share Posted March 4, 2019 12z UK - Less juiced, but still good for Omaha. Much sharper northern edge than other models. 2 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted March 4, 2019 Report Share Posted March 4, 2019 Euro is little farther north and weaker Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted March 4, 2019 Report Share Posted March 4, 2019 Lol, what a drastic difference between the Euro/Ukie & GFS for a storm that’s about 70 hours away. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wheezer Posted March 4, 2019 Report Share Posted March 4, 2019 Can you show EU map a bit more east into Indy/oh Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted March 4, 2019 Report Share Posted March 4, 2019 Wow, the euro is weak. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted March 4, 2019 Report Share Posted March 4, 2019 Can you show EU map a bit more east into Indy/ohyou asked for it Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wheezer Posted March 4, 2019 Report Share Posted March 4, 2019 you asked for it Previous system for the OV, the American models were weak and EU/Ukie were juiced, now the opposite. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted March 4, 2019 Report Share Posted March 4, 2019 Hastings NWS put out their current thinking. Looks like it about lines up with the GFS. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted March 4, 2019 Report Share Posted March 4, 2019 Looks about right, but cutoff on south side will probably be sharper and if trends hold, maybe not as much snow Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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