May 2019 Weather Discussion PNW

[Omegaraptor]

Instead of bringing the epic rain event shown on the 18z, the 00z just has the trough hanging off the coast and not really doing anything except lowering temperatures.

 

If it's going to be much cooler than normal, please rain hard.

 

Also, it shows at least a dusting of sticking snow for almost all of south-central Oregon and NE CA by hour 240. Southern Deschutes County, Klamath County, western Lake County, a good portion of Modoc, a good portion of Siskiyou, etc. Crook and Grant counties also show some sticking snow. Last several models have shown sticking snow for that area but this one shows further development.

 

https://tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=nwus&pkg=asnowd&runtime=2019051200&fh=240

[Phil]

Phil, do you think central will have a chance of more t storms than usual or is it more of the same, heat heat and heat with an occasional heat spell?

Was 1997 a convective summer? I think it could wind up similar to that, perhaps a bit more amplified.

[ShawniganLake]

Fire season has arrived in BC. Evacuation orders and alerts for the Fraser lake area.

 

[TT-SEA]

10-day precip anomaly per the 00Z ECMWF... a little wetter than the 12Z run.   

 

[Farmboy]

This is not the kind of weather anyone wants to see in May. Too bad this upcoming spell has to be so long lasting. So many people trying to get outdoors...

[TacomaWaWx]

This is not the kind of weather anyone wants to see in May. Too bad this upcoming spell has to be so long lasting. So many people trying to get outdoors...

Mother Nature does not care what anyone wants lol. I don’t like 85+ degree days and some people don’t like 60 degree spring showers just gotta deal with it make the best out of the weather.

[TacomaWaWx]

Pretty good marine push yesterday Temp dropped about 25 degrees here with some gusty SW winds. Today it’s 10 degrees cooler than this time yesterday with low clouds and 51 degrees.

[jcmcgaffey]

One more note on the lake level... this picture below is from last July. That sand bar is completely submerged right now. We went over there today and you can see its about 3 feet below the water surface and it will probably take until June or July to see it again. This is a natural lake... and its definitely not low right now.

 

good old sand bar at lake Sammamish state park. A lot of good memories in high school down there. Even when it is really dry that lake does not go down.

[ShawniganLake]

The NE pacific is starting to get pretty warm. Perhaps the upcoming active pattern will knock it back some.

[jcmcgaffey]

Didn’t expect rain this morning. Feels refreshing. Hope it stays dry this next weekend though as my wife and I are taking our anniversary trip to Orcas Island.

[Guest CulverJosh]

It will surely be raining on memorial day for sure.

[TacomaWaWx]

Didn’t expect rain this morning. Feels refreshing. Hope it stays dry this next weekend though as my wife and I are taking our anniversary trip to Orcas Island.

Doesn’t look like this weekend will be the greatest weekend in terms of the weather with the upcoming pattern but maybe you’ll get lucky and it’ll be dry when you head up there. I was just there 2 months ago really beautiful place rain or shine.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Cloudy and cool morning in the south valley. Currently 52F. I doubt we make it to 77F but we shall see...

[MossMan]

Light drizzle.

[ShawniganLake]

There were 45 new record high maximums set in BC over the past 3 days.

[TacomaWaWx]

Up to 56 degrees now as the sun is breaking through the clouds here.

[Farmboy]

Oh yes please let the long range OP 12z GFS be for real... Long range ensembles much improved from yesterday's..

[Omegaraptor]

 

12z GFS ensembles show a more pronounced long-run increase in 850hpa temps than previous models.

[Jesse]

This one cloudy day has really got me down. Probably not even any record highs or new fire starts in the region, ugh. Can’t wait for the warm up!

[Farmboy]

6B10CCFB-C627-42B8-A455-8A52BB53BD4E.jpeg

12z GFS ensembles show a more pronounced long-run increase in 850hpa temps than previous models.

Some pretty nice members towards the end there... Is there a chart like that for Boise?

[Farmboy]

This one cloudy day has really got me down. Probably not even any record highs or new fire starts in the region, ugh. Can’t wait for the warm up!

. Dude, the upcoming period is super lousy up here. I've got about 10 days in a row of 50's with showers to get thru. I basically need mid to upper 80's in the low Idaho deserts to have any shot at 70° up here.

[Jesse]

. Dude, the upcoming period is super lousy up here. I've got about 10 days in a row of 50's with showers to get thru. I basically need mid to upper 80's in the low Idaho deserts to have any shot at 70° up here.

It’s a seasonably cool pattern after a very warm pattern. You are just a whiny little b*tch that can’t handle climo.

[Phil]

Oh yes please let the long range OP 12z GFS be for real... Long range ensembles much improved from yesterday's..

Not gonna happen. Should be a 3-4 day hiatus then another ULL.

[Phil]

. Dude, the upcoming period is super lousy up here. I've got about 10 days in a row of 50's with showers to get thru. I basically need mid to upper 80's in the low Idaho deserts to have any shot at 70° up here.

Pack up your tent and relocate.

[Farmboy]

It’s a seasonably cool pattern after a very warm pattern. You are just a whiny little b*tch that can’t handle climo.

Lol, I'm whiny. Funny coming from someone who has panic attacks when there's 2 or more 70° days in a row.

[Omegaraptor]

. Dude, the upcoming period is super lousy up here. I've got about 10 days in a row of 50's with showers to get thru. I basically need mid to upper 80's in the low Idaho deserts to have any shot at 70° up here.

 

Average May high in Cascade, Idaho is 62ºF...

 

2.5ºF lower than Seattle, 6ºF lower than Portland, 7.5ºF lower than Boise.

 

It's a mountain climate at almost 5000' elevation. What did you expect, Tri-Cities? 

[Phil]

Lol, I'm whiny. Funny coming from someone who has panic attacks when there's 2 or more 70° days in a row.

That’s literally what you do, just inverted to 70*F or lower instead of 70*F or higher.

[Omegaraptor]

Anyway, the cloud layer in Portland has mostly burned off.

[Farmboy]

That’s literally what you do, just inverted to 70*F or lower instead of 70*F or higher.

I've got a couple days coming up that probably won't even crack 50°..

[Farmboy]

Not gonna happen. Should be a 3-4 day hiatus then another ULL.

Bookmarked for future reference.

[Omegaraptor]

 

Here's the Boise ensemble run.

[Jesse]

Lol, I'm whiny. Funny coming from someone who has panic attacks when there's 2 or more 70° days in a row.

Yep, totally accurate.

 

I love highs in the 70s in the summer.

[Omegaraptor]

Although I hope the upcoming rain delays wildfire season, one thing I've heard in California is that the worst combination for wildfires is a wet May followed by a dry June, because this overgrows vegetation and then dries it out. Does the same hold true in the PNW?

[TacomaWaWx]

Up to 60 degrees as of 1:30. Partly cloudy still not too bad of a day.

[High Desert Mat?]

Although I hope the upcoming rain delays wildfire season, one thing I've heard in California is that the worst combination for wildfires is a wet May followed by a dry June, because this overgrows vegetation and then dries it out. Does the same hold true in the PNW?

Yes in a way. It adds more fuels for the fires but it also can soak down logs and trees so there’s that. Amongst a lot of other variables.

[The Swamp]

Looks nasty the next ten days. Jesse is going to be in heaven. Rain and clouds just about every day as far as the eye can see.

[Jesse]

Looks nasty the next ten days. Jesse is going to be in heaven. Rain and clouds just about every day as far as the eye can see.

Sounds like the iPhone forecast blues. In reality there will be lots of breaks. And we really need whatever rain we end up getting.

[Omegaraptor]

YTD:

PDX is at 11.41" of precip.

LAX is at 12.09" of precip.

SEA is at 13.35" of precip.

 

 

 

[MossMan]

Nice day!

[TacomaWaWx]

Only 64 today so far for the high. High clouds have blocked out any blue in the sky though.