July 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[Omegaraptor]

Temperature wise it's been okay, could be a little warmer but the main thing is the lack of sunshine. Through the first 10 days of July, PDX had had 0 clear days, 6 partly cloudy days and 4 cloudy days. Compare that to last year when there were 20 clear days, 10 partly cloudly days and only 1 cloudy day. So far it's been a cloud lovers paradise here.

Hillsboro, which I find to be more accurate when it comes to Portland sunshine, has seen 2 clear, 4 partly cloudy, and 4 cloudy.

 

2018 was unusually sunny, however. As one member here said, the marine layer which was common before about 2013 is making a comeback this year.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Since we seem to be talking about El Nino in this thread, NOAA just updated their predictions.  They are now calling for a neutral winter.  They do think there may be a slight increase in the anomalies going from winter into Spring. 

 

Good blog post here:

 

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/july-2019-el-ni%C3%B1o-update-i-think-i%E2%80%99ll-go-walk

[TacomaWaWx]

Definitely looks like a better pattern overall than the last 10 days.

I can’t see why anyone would complain we could use some summer like weather after getting a good soaking rain for most of the area. I certainly don’t hope that everyday is like the last 2 I do hope that we can get some good stretches of summer weather.

[TacomaWaWx]

The thing is, we're in the midst of a low solar period of much greater magnitude than those late 20th century solar mins.

 

I think we can expect at least the same level of high lat blocking as we saw from 2008-2011, and as we saw the latter half of last winter. Combined with weak ENSO, should be a winter with lots of opportunities across the lower 48 for serious Arctic air.

We had some good snow and cold outbreaks here from 2008-2011.

[Deweydog]

Haha!!! I just got it!

 

They called her “Wronga” Shelby instead of Rhonda because her forecasts were wrong sometimes.

[jakeinthevalley]

I’m thinking either UW or University of Oregon. Maybe Oregon State (haven’t visited the campus yet though).

My daughter finished her first year at UW. Great school and great location. Hard to go wrong up there.

[jakeinthevalley]

Hard to beat that in November.

Regis HS in Stayton hosted a playoff football game in mid November of 1985. The 6" of snow was pushed off and piled up on the sides of the field and the temp was around 20f. Field was frozen solid and the lines were painted yellow to contrast the ice on the grass.

[Deweydog]

My daughter finished her first year at UW. Great school and great location. Hard to go wrong up there.

But can you go wronga up there???

[jakeinthevalley]

But can you go wronga up there???

Doubtful, but I heard you can do Wronga up there.

 

MtScottJosh, what say you?

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Hillsboro, which I find to be more accurate when it comes to Portland sunshine, has seen 2 clear, 4 partly cloudy, and 4 cloudy.

 

2018 was unusually sunny, however. As one member here said, the marine layer which was common before about 2013 is making a comeback this year.

Yeah, the marine layer has for sure showed up this year.

[TacomaWaWx]

Looks like it’ll be a few degrees warmer today than yesterday. Currently up to 67 degrees already and a muggy humid atmosphere making it feel more like low to mid 70s already. Couple small breaks in the clouds so far this morning but not too much.

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF is much more aggressive with that cold trough later next week and then a quick recovery... maybe that will finally be catalyst for a pattern change.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Regis HS in Stayton hosted a playoff football game in mid November of 1985. The 6" of snow was pushed off and piled up on the sides of the field and the temp was around 20f. Field was frozen solid and the lines were painted yellow to contrast the ice on the grass.

 

That would have been great. Did the Rams win?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Silver Falls has a lot of missing data from some of the coldest days, but they did record 6" of snow on the 11/21/85 and a 26/8 day on the 23rd. Mean temp for the month was 34.1.

[TT-SEA]

Very clear signal on the 12Z EPS for warmth retrograding westward in the 10-15 day period... similar to the past 2 runs.    

 

 

Might still be able to get a nice fat ridge over us during Phil's trip.   

[Deweydog]

Starting to pheel like phil might be phucked.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Very clear signal on the 12Z EPS for warmth retrograding westward in the 10-15 day period... similar to the past 2 runs.    

 

 

Might still be able to get a nice fat ridge over us during Phil's trip.   

 

Good to see you posting EPS maps again!

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Looks like it’ll be a few degrees warmer today than yesterday. Currently up to 67 degrees already and a muggy humid atmosphere making it feel more like low to mid 70s already. Couple small breaks in the clouds so far this morning but not too much.

Yeah, the humidity is making it feel much warmer than it is. Had to turn on the AC in my SUV just now when I went to lunch.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Very clear signal on the 12Z EPS for warmth retrograding westward in the 10-15 day period... similar to the past 2 runs.

 

 

Might still be able to get a nice fat ridge over us during Phil's trip.

Let's hope it keeps trending that way. Good to see warm anomalies show up just in time for the hottest part of the summer on average.

[jakeinthevalley]

That would have been great. Did the Rams win?

They beat Dayton. The game was at Stayton HS (that was Regis' home field in those days, as they didn't have lights yet) I remember they got into some trouble because they had a field burner out there earlier in the day to try to melt the snow and thaw the field. Problem is, the arms of the torch overlapped the all surface track on the first pass and set some of it on fire. It had been newly resurfaced the previous summer. Had to resort to plowing after that!! Our AD was less than pleased.

[Bryant]

Kudos.

Check your D**n messenger lol

[TigerWoodsLibido]

They beat Dayton. The game was at Stayton HS (that was Regis' home field in those days, as they didn't have lights yet) I remember they got into some trouble because they had a field burner out there earlier in the day to try to melt the snow and thaw the field. Problem is, the arms of the torch overlapped the all surface track on the first pass and set some of it on fire. It had been newly resurfaced the previous summer. Had to resort to plowing after that!! Our AD was less than pleased.

Dewey Sullivan’s Dayton Pirates. Sheridan and Willamina always stomped by them. We had absolutely moribund athletics.

[jakeinthevalley]

Dewey Sullivan’s Dayton Pirates. Sheridan and Willamina always stomped by them. We had absolutely moribund athletics.

Yep. Dewey was on the sideline for that one. I think they won State the following year

[seattleweatherguy]

Let's hope it keeps trending that way. Good to see warm anomalies show up just in time for the hottest part of the summer on average.

Looks good for some 80s at least

[seattleweatherguy]

Check your d**n messenger lol

I message Phil and he didn’t answer either. Your not the only one. Still with that said, much respect for the guy. I have known him on the fourums for awhile now

[Phil]

95-96 still arcticed in January, besides the whole flooding thing.

 

The only problem I have with 95-96 is that mountain snow wasn’t great that year. I guess most of the precipitation just fell as rain in the mountains (hence the flooding).

If it’s raining in the lowlands either way, then who cares about mountain snow?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Dewey Sullivan’s Dayton Pirates. Sheridan and Willamina always stomped by them. We had absolutely moribund athletics.

 

I pitched twice against Willamina in high school. Junior year I had 9 strikeouts and we won 9-1, senior year we won 3-0 and I had 17 K's. 

[Phil]

Things we’re overdue for, if you want to think about things that way:

 

Cool May (hasn’t happened since 2011, even more persistent than torching summers)

Cool spring in general (2012 was the last overall below average spring)

Non-torching summer (crossed off the list?)

Regional arctic blast (not since 2014)

Warm February and March (not since 2016 for either)

Non-torching December and January (not since 2016-7 for either)

Month with over 7” of rainfall at PDX (not since March 2017)

 

Warm springs have been just as persistent as hot summers this decade, interestingly.

You’re still due for a cool summer,

 

Probably 2 or 3 of them.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Was going through the February stats at Silver Falls. A lot to unpack there. As I mentioned a couple months ago it did beat out 1989 for the coldest February on record (by a few hundredths of a degree.). 

 

It was the 2nd coldest month at Silver Falls since December 1990 (January 2017 is the coldest in that period). 

 

10 of the past 13 Februaries have been below average at Silver Falls. 

[Phil]

The thing is, we're in the midst of a low solar period of much greater magnitude than those late 20th century solar mins.

 

I think we can expect at least the same level of high lat blocking as we saw from 2008-2011, and as we saw the latter half of last winter. Combined with weak ENSO, should be a winter with lots of opportunities across the lower 48 for serious Arctic air.

Agreed, the next several years could be very exciting. The stratosphere/mesosphere have finally begun to respond to the solar minimum conditions and we finally have polar blocking back.

[Guest CulverJosh]

Doubtful, but I heard you can do Wronga up there.

 

MtScottJosh, what say you?

Over-wrought with liberals being indoctrinated and the traffic is nonsense.

[Phil]

Since we seem to be talking about El Nino in this thread, NOAA just updated their predictions. They are now calling for a neutral winter. They do think there may be a slight increase in the anomalies going from winter into Spring.

 

Good blog post here:

 

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/july-2019-el-ni%C3%B1o-update-i-think-i%E2%80%99ll-go-walk

The warmer subsurface just south of the equator and westward is important. If we’re not back into El Niño by winter, then 2020/21 could be primed for a healthy one given downwelling easterly shear/strong MC state juxtaposed w/ the next downwelling wave.

[TacomaWaWx]

Currently 73 degrees which is the warmest temp we’ve had here since the first of July. Mostly cloudy and a few sunbreaks overall great summer day.

[Phil]

Check your d**n messenger lol

D**n phone.

[Phil]

I message Phil and he didn’t answer either. Your not the only one. Still with that said, much respect for the guy. I have known him on the fourums for awhile now

Sorry brother, my phone is a piece of crap.

[jakeinthevalley]

Over-wrought with liberals being indoctrinated and the traffic is nonsense.

Lack of sexual content??

 

I am full of the disappoint.

[Guest CulverJosh]

Lack of sexual content??

 

I am full of the disappoint.

Dont get me wrong. The girls are easy but they need razors.

[TacomaWaWx]

Gfs latest run looks even drier over the next 10 days than the previous run.

[TT-SEA]

Gfs latest run looks even drier over the next 10 days than the previous run.

 

But there is still a big pattern shake up late next week... as all the models seem to be showing now.

[jakeinthevalley]

I pitched twice against Willamina in high school. Junior year I had 9 strikeouts and we won 9-1, senior year we won 3-0 and I had 17 K's. 

Willamina won the State baseball championship in 1986, so TWL wasn't correct about the horrible athletic program. I was also wrong about that November FB game. Seems Dayton won that game and the first of back to back titles.

 

My brain must have froze at the game