Cascadia_Wx Posted April 6, 2023 Author Report Share Posted April 6, 2023 That tax day trough trended a notch or two colder on the 00z GFS. Quote Summer grows while Winter goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted April 6, 2023 Report Share Posted April 6, 2023 Tax Day is 4/18 this year. And it does not look that cold. Side note even the traditional Tax Day of 4/15 is not that cold (second image). Troughing much farther west than the crazy 00Z run yesterday. 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted April 6, 2023 Report Share Posted April 6, 2023 8 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: Tax Day is 4/18 this year. And it does not look that cold. Side note even the traditional Tax Day of 4/15 is not that cold (second image). Troughing much farther west than the crazy 00Z run yesterday. That’s just GFS ULL silliness though. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted April 6, 2023 Report Share Posted April 6, 2023 1 minute ago, Phil said: That’s just GFS ULL silliness though. Of course. But the 12Z EPS looked very similar with troughing offshore for that time frame. Also probably not worth talking about notches at 13 days out when there many different troughs in different places on each run and we can't even tell which trough we are tracking. Unless your goal is trolling. 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cascadia_Wx Posted April 6, 2023 Author Report Share Posted April 6, 2023 00z GEFS ensembles looking pretty solid. Quote Summer grows while Winter goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted April 6, 2023 Report Share Posted April 6, 2023 Nice upward trend later next week... as we heads towards tax day. 2 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skagit Weather Posted April 6, 2023 Report Share Posted April 6, 2023 2 hours ago, Phil said: 88.3°F here today. Frogs are loving it though. Warmer than it got at any point here last summer. Quote Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008): Max Temp: 96.3F (2009) Min Temp: 2.0F (2008) Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021) Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22) Avg Yearly Precip: 37" 10yr Avg Snow: 8.0" Snowfall Totals '08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cascadia_Wx Posted April 6, 2023 Author Report Share Posted April 6, 2023 52/38 day here. Partly sunny early then mostly cloudy in the afternoon. Light rain and 47 now. 1 Quote Summer grows while Winter goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted April 6, 2023 Report Share Posted April 6, 2023 Still dry here this morning... but light rain at the doorstep now. 06Z ECMWF and 06Z GFS still show dry conditions on Saturday (except on the WA coast). GFS shows totally dry on Sunday as well from Portland southward and just a little light rain farther north. ECMWF is less sharp with incoming front and shows light rain across all of western WA and OR by afternoon... but did trend a little slower again. Farther out... that incoming trough on Sunday looks like it morphs into a ULL moving down the west coast rather than moving inland like previous runs showed. Also interesting that the upper Midwest is going to go straight from endless winter to very warm for the foreseeable future. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted April 6, 2023 Report Share Posted April 6, 2023 Dry morning here. 45 degrees. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWx Posted April 6, 2023 Report Share Posted April 6, 2023 It’s early in the day but I think my forecast I sent to my boss may be way overdone on precip. Has been a frustrating rainy season at my job…been a very dry one overall. Was hoping for a lot of overtime and 60+ hour weeks but that has only been the case on a couple occasions this year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted April 6, 2023 Report Share Posted April 6, 2023 9 minutes ago, TacomaWx said: It’s early in the day but I think my forecast I sent to my boss may be way overdone on precip. Has been a frustrating rainy season at my job…been a very dry one overall. Was hoping for a lot of overtime and 60+ hour weeks but that has only been the case on a couple occasions this year. Once you start battling Tim on this opportunity will arise. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted April 6, 2023 Report Share Posted April 6, 2023 8 minutes ago, TacomaWx said: It’s early in the day but I think my forecast I sent to my boss may be way overdone on precip. Has been a frustrating rainy season at my job…been a very dry one overall. Was hoping for a lot of overtime and 60+ hour weeks but that has only been the case on a couple occasions this year. Offshore flow is a rain killer in King and Pierce Counties. It's going to rain all day but just lightly for the most part. I am hoping Sunday and Monday can deliver with a warmer air mass and more tropical moisture being pulled up... but it will probably depend on how fast the incoming trough cuts off. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWx Posted April 6, 2023 Report Share Posted April 6, 2023 1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Once you start battling Tim on this opportunity will arise. God I just hate battling Tim. I’m trying to fight the good fight but he just keeps pushing the rain away! 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWx Posted April 6, 2023 Report Share Posted April 6, 2023 1 minute ago, TT-SEA said: Offshore flow is a rain killer in King and Pierce Counties. It's going to rain all day but just lightly for the most part. I am hoping Sunday and Monday can deliver with a warmer air mass and more tropical moisture being pulled up... but it will probably depend on how fast the incoming trough cuts off. Yeah we will see how today goes…but I’d be surprised if we got 1/2” up here in Redmond. Earlier this week it looked like I may have to work over the weekend but I’m guessing I probably won’t since the rain doesn’t look like much. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted April 6, 2023 Report Share Posted April 6, 2023 Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said: Once you start battling Tim on this opportunity will arise. Why does everything have to be a battle? Seems like a couple of you are bored unless you are building strawmen and creating fictitious fights over something none of us control. 1 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWx Posted April 6, 2023 Report Share Posted April 6, 2023 1 minute ago, TT-SEA said: Why does everything have to be a battle? Seems like a couple of you are bored unless you are building strawmen and creating fictitious fights over something none of us control. There’s always gotta be a scapegoat Timothy. I’m glad that you’ve taken the role in stride all of these years. Someone’s gotta be the villain 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted April 6, 2023 Report Share Posted April 6, 2023 18 minutes ago, TacomaWx said: There’s always gotta be a scapegoat Timothy. I’m glad that you’ve taken the role in stride all of these years. Someone’s gotta be the villain That is the problem... always have to create a villian! I take it in stride because it's just silly and meaningless and sort of entertaining. 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted April 6, 2023 Report Share Posted April 6, 2023 In other news... the super extended ECMWF was 1.25 notches (50 miles) west with the Flag Day trough. Going to be tracking that one closely. 1 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted April 6, 2023 Report Share Posted April 6, 2023 3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: In other news... the super extended ECMWF was 1.25 notches (50 miles) west with the Flag Day trough. Going to be tracking that one closely. Flag Day? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted April 6, 2023 Report Share Posted April 6, 2023 Just now, Mr Marine Layer said: Flag Day? June 14th! Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted April 6, 2023 Report Share Posted April 6, 2023 1 minute ago, TT-SEA said: June 14th! The models go out that far? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted April 6, 2023 Report Share Posted April 6, 2023 It feels like the very cold pattern in April/May last year basically repeated in February/March this year. Probably close to running its course soon. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted April 6, 2023 Report Share Posted April 6, 2023 17 minutes ago, Mr Marine Layer said: The models go out that far? CMC goes out into 2024 now. 1 2 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted April 6, 2023 Report Share Posted April 6, 2023 20 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: CMC goes out into 2024 now. What does it show for July 22? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted April 6, 2023 Report Share Posted April 6, 2023 9 minutes ago, Mr Marine Layer said: What does it show for July 22? Warm and cold depending on your location and hemisphere. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted April 6, 2023 Report Share Posted April 6, 2023 10 hours ago, TT-SEA said: Of course. But the 12Z EPS looked very similar with troughing offshore for that time frame. Also probably not worth talking about notches at 13 days out when there many different troughs in different places on each run and we can't even tell which trough we are tracking. Unless your goal is trolling. Interestingly many of the EPS members have that ULL solution as well. So who knows. But it just doesn’t sit well with me, not a normal 500mb evolution at all. Not buying it yet. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted April 6, 2023 Report Share Posted April 6, 2023 1 hour ago, TT-SEA said: It feels like the very cold pattern in April/May last year basically repeated in February/March this year. Probably close to running its course soon. I don’t think it’s the same pattern though? Last year had the forcing in the E-Hem/IPWP area thru boreal spring, and the mid latitude response to that varies seasonally and w/ QBO/low-freq z-cell modes. Now it’s more WHEM/W-IO low pass and CCKW/shallow MJOs across the Pacific. Unlike last year, the greatest odds for troughing/ULL activity is in the SW US instead of the PNW. 7 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cascadia_Wx Posted April 6, 2023 Author Report Share Posted April 6, 2023 Milder and rainy morning here. Low of 44. Quote Summer grows while Winter goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted April 6, 2023 Report Share Posted April 6, 2023 1 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted April 6, 2023 Report Share Posted April 6, 2023 39 minutes ago, Phil said: I don’t think it’s the same pattern though? Last year had the forcing in the E-Hem/IPWP area thru boreal spring, and the mid latitude response to that varies seasonally and w/ QBO/low-freq z-cell modes. Now it’s more WHEM/W-IO low pass and CCKW/shallow MJOs across the Pacific. Unlike last year, the greatest odds for troughing/ULL activity is in the SW US instead of the PNW. Definitely different. Last year the really cold pattern in April and May was also quite wet here. This year the cold pattern has been dry up here with the ULL and troughing action focused to the south primarily in CA. 1 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted April 6, 2023 Report Share Posted April 6, 2023 48 minutes ago, Phil said: Interestingly many of the EPS members have that ULL solution as well. So who knows. But it just doesn’t sit well with me, not a normal 500mb evolution at all. Not buying it yet. Big picture seems to be troughing farther west and centered just offshore. In general that is warmer and wetter here and quite different than what we have seen for the last 2 months. 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Port Angeles Foothiller Posted April 6, 2023 Report Share Posted April 6, 2023 3 minutes ago, Phil said: I'm good with this as long as Sunday's storm actually brings me some D**n rain 1 Quote PWS: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KWAPORTA220 2023-2024 Snow Total: 18" (6 events) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted April 6, 2023 Report Share Posted April 6, 2023 Just now, Port Angeles Foothiller said: I'm good with this as long as Sunday's storm actually brings me some D**n rain No doubt. We need some high dewpoint rainfall with a tropical connection. Right now it's sprinkling here with the sun clearly visible through the clouds. Not making up any ground here with this system. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Port Angeles Foothiller Posted April 6, 2023 Report Share Posted April 6, 2023 1 minute ago, TT-SEA said: No doubt. We need some high dewpoint rainfall with a tropical connection. Right now it's sprinkling here with the sun clearly visible through the clouds. Not making up any ground here with this system. I'm fully shadowed yet again. Might squeeze a few hundredths on the back end. Quote PWS: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KWAPORTA220 2023-2024 Snow Total: 18" (6 events) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LowerGarfield Posted April 6, 2023 Report Share Posted April 6, 2023 Need more moisture in Eastern WA. 1 1 Quote Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA: 2023-2024 Snowfall totals: 14.3 inches HIghest snow total (per event): 5.8 inches total 1/11/24 - 1/12/24. Most recent accumulation (non trace): 0.20 inches on 2/26/24 Days with trace or more snowfall: 12/01/23 (0.60), 1/8/24 (1.0), 1/10/24 (3.5), 1/11/23 (3.5 inches with Thundersnow; separate event from prior day), 1/12/24 (2.30). 1/14/24 (T), 1/17/24 (1.20 inches), 1/18/24 (1.5 inches), 1/19/24 (0.20), 2/09/24 (0.30), 2/26/24 (0.20-mainly graupel), 4/5/24 (T) First Freeze: 10/27/2023 Last Sub freezing Day: 1/20/24 (12th) (8 days in a row from 1/12/24-1/20/24) Coldest low: -12F (!!!!!!!!) (1/12/24) Last White Christmas: 2022 at my location (on ground) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted April 6, 2023 Report Share Posted April 6, 2023 7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: Big picture seems to be troughing farther west and centered just offshore. In general that is warmer and wetter here and quite different than what we have seen for the last 2 months. Makes dynamical sense during that timeframe, yes. But suspect it will play out closer to the CMC than the GFS. Might not even make a difference in observed weather out there, but it makes a difference for geeks like me. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted April 6, 2023 Report Share Posted April 6, 2023 18 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said: I'm good with this as long as Sunday's storm actually brings me some D**n rain I would expect a pretty strong Olympic rain shadow during the day on Sunday under SW flow. Might, hopefully for your area, fill in a bit late Sunday into Monday morning Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phishy Wx Posted April 6, 2023 Report Share Posted April 6, 2023 KGEG needs to get to late April without a 60 burger to break the all time record. and I think that record was just last year? lol. I can't remember maybe it was the latest 50 last year or lastest 70. We broke something last year and I'm too lazy to look right now. going to get close this Sunday, I think 60 is forecast Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phishy Wx Posted April 6, 2023 Report Share Posted April 6, 2023 11 minutes ago, LowerGarfield said: Need more moisture in Eastern WA. indeed thinking about turning on irrigation already but can't because we continue to get hard freezes 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Posted by iFred,
4 reactions
Go to this post
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.