PNW April 2023 Weather Discussion

[Cascadia_Wx]

35 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Nice thing about today is the clouds and ample precip come in at the perfect time to cap daytime heating. 

Let’s hope so. Getting warm out there, PDX already up to 46!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

5 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Let’s hope so. Getting warm out there, PDX already up to 46!

Oh well...

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Oh well...

I still think everything’s going to be fine, Andrew.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Friday looks pretty "nice."

[Anti Marine Layer]

16 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Let’s hope so. Getting warm out there, PDX already up to 46!

Turn on the AC

[Cascadia_Wx]

Moderate east wind here too ahead of the bombing low offshore. Interesting weather morning.

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Friday looks pretty "nice."

This last Friday was too. Did you see those coast pics!?? Saturday had quite a bit of sun in the afternoon as well. We hiked to the Rockaway Beach giant cedar and conditions were stellar.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

This last Friday was too. Did you see those coast pics!?? Saturday had quite a bit of sun in the afternoon as well. We hiked to the Rockaway Beach giant cedar and conditions were stellar.

Nice. This Saturday looks "dry" too. 

[TT-SEA]

That little ridgy period later in the week has snuck up on us since yesterday... nice to have something trending warmer once in awhile.     

[Cascadia_Wx]

3 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

This last Friday was too. Did you see those coast pics!?? Saturday had quite a bit of sun in the afternoon as well. We hiked to the Rockaway Beach giant cedar and conditions were stellar.

Quite the prolific skunk cabbage bloom there.

[Cascadia_Wx]

4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Nice. This Saturday looks "dry" too. 

“Nice” “Andrew”.

[Anti Marine Layer]

16 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

That little ridgy period later in the week has snuck up on us since yesterday... nice to have something trending warmer once in awhile.     

L

 

Likely to disappear 

Make sure to post lots of warm weather pictures from your trip to irritate Jesse.

[Phil]

12z GFS wants to cut off that NE-Pacific trough sooo badly.  

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

12z GFS wants to cut off that NE-Pacific trough sooo badly.  

Seems like the stronger trend with the shortwave ridge Friday/Saturday sets us up for a troughier pattern in the long range as well. Short term gain for long term pain. 

[Phil]

5 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Seems like the stronger trend with the shortwave ridge Friday/Saturday sets us up for a troughier pattern in the long range as well. Short term gain for long term pain. 

Could be. But I think the GFS is gonna trap the ULL again this run and produce another mega-death ridge D10 onwards.

I’ve seen it happen enough times now. Starts with excess positive tilt in the trough, leaves a piece behind, then somehow commands the entire pattern around said leftover ULL.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Good call PHIL.

[ShawniganLake]

Cloudy and breezy this morning with temps in the upper 30s.  Snow line hanging pretty low on the mountains. Feels like winter still. 

[Winterdog]

47 after a low of 37.  The sun breaks are much appreciated.

[Phil]

In fact the reason the GFS has trended “warmer” D5/6 is because it corrected another spurious ULL once way out over the NPAC. Shocker!  

Except that time it was leading to a colder PNW solution. Now that the ULL is removed from the picture, the evolution is quite different/warmer.

[SnowySeeker50]

Currently 48 after a low of 36 this morning.

[TT-SEA]

12Z GFS is not really cutting off the trough yet by day 11.   More reasonable than some ULL way off in the Pacific with a massive ridge over the west.

 

 

[Phil]

4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Good call PHIL.

So predictable, lol.

I don’t know if you remember the ECMWF from the early 2010s but it would always cut off ULLs in the SW US/4-Corners region. Like every run. The GFS is at least as bad if not worse during the spring months.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

So predictable, lol.

I don’t know if you remember the ECMWF from the early 2010s but it would always cut off ULLs in the SW US/4-Corners region. Like every run. The GFS is at least as bad if not worse during the spring months.

I do remember that. 

[Phil]

7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z GFS is not really cutting off the trough yet by day 11.   More reasonable than some ULL way off in the Pacific with a massive ridge over the west.

 

 

It is cutting it off. Well, trying to w/ the excessive digging offshore. Almost certainly wrong.

Have seen this go on for 3+ years now. Every spring. Doesn’t mean there won’t be a ridge, but the way the GFS gets there is exactly how it’s always done so when it’s drunk.

[Front Ranger]

2 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

I don't think the PDO rules anything... its just the "echo" of the upper level patterns.    A negative PDO indicates that the pattern in the PNW has been cold rather than causing the cold.    Chicken and egg thing.

Whatever drives the PDO definitely moves in phases not entirely tied to ENSO, though. We've been in a clear -PDO phase since 2018, with higher pressure dominating the NE Pacific in the cold season.

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

It is cutting it off. Well, trying to w/ the excessive digging offshore. Almost certainly wrong.

Have seen this go on for 3+ years now. Every spring.

12Z GFS looks very similar to the EPS by day 11... its not too outlandish.

 

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Front Ranger said:

Whatever drives the PDO definitely moves in phases not entirely tied to ENSO, though. We've been in a clear -PDO phase since 2018, with higher pressure dominating the NE Pacific in the cold season.

Totally agree.  

[Cascadia_Wx]

Sort of a nice and variable 12z GFs run.

[TT-SEA]

And the 12Z GFS brings a trough in just after the time frame above.   As far GFS runs go... this one is pretty reasonable in terms of spurious ULLs and downstream ridges.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

And the 12Z GFS brings a trough in just after the time frame above.   As far GFS runs go... this one is pretty reasonable in terms of spurious ULLs and downstream ridges.  

Look at that trough over PHILLLL. SCORE

[Phil]

Lol I guess I spooked it. Actually abandons the idea in the clown range.

But I’m almost certain we’ll see some massive western ridges on the GFS over the next several days. It’s the perfect pattern to exploit those issues.

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Look at that trough over PHILLLL. SCORE

I am sure that is the spurious ULL. 

[Front Ranger]

30 minutes ago, ML Loather said:

Likely to disappear 

Make sure to post lots of warm weather pictures from your trip to irritate Jesse.

I plan on taking a shot every time he posts a palm tree pic. Should not go well.

[TT-SEA]

Just now, Front Ranger said:

I plan on taking a shot every time he posts a palm tree pic. Should not go well.

I will try to get at least 20 of them in the pool pics... should make for a fun day for you!

[Phil]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Look at that trough over PHILLLL. SCORE

I’m trying so hard not to talk about it or get excited, haha.

Can’t count how many times I’ve had my heart shattered at the last second this year. It’s like a sick game. If I start believing it too soon it will get snatched away.

[TT-SEA]

Beautiful day so far with lots of sunshine.    Looks very spring-like out there now with the trees leafing out.    Front is becoming negatively tilted which will delay it a bit and keep the duration rather short out here as it races through later this afternoon.    Leaving home at 4 a.m. tomorrow for SEA and then CHS.

[Cascadia_Wx]

34 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Whatever drives the PDO definitely moves in phases not entirely tied to ENSO, though. We've been in a clear -PDO phase since 2018, with higher pressure dominating the NE Pacific in the cold season.

Would explain all the frigid summers since then. Or the frigid summers would explain the -PDO? I get mixed up.

[Cascadia_Wx]

Decent consensus building for another trough around the 25th-26th.

[Cascadia_Wx]

24 minutes ago, Phil said:

I’m trying so hard not to talk about it or get excited, haha.

Can’t count how many times I’ve had my heart shattered at the last second this year. It’s like a sick game. If I start believing it too soon it will get snatched away.

That’s exactly how I’ve felt about meaningful troughing anytime between June-September the last 10+ years.

[The Blob]

Was nice and sunny, now cloudy.