james1976 Posted August 5, 2019 Report Share Posted August 5, 2019 Another beautiful summer evening! Clear skies, pleasant temps, low humidity and locust making noise! Out on the deck grilling some awesome food and taking it all in. Sun is already setting. Autumn is coming fast! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted August 5, 2019 Report Share Posted August 5, 2019 Local met has mid 80s and humid next weekend. That Aug 6-12 cooldown is not looking to pan out. Couple days around 80 is the best we may get. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted August 5, 2019 Author Report Share Posted August 5, 2019 Enhanced Risk for much of the MW region for later tonight...CAM's show MN/IA are in the best spot for action later this afternoon... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted August 5, 2019 Report Share Posted August 5, 2019 Severe thunderstorm watch just posted, until 3pm. Looks like damaging winds may be the biggest threat. Not sure what to expect locally. Some cams have the approaching line from the NW dying before it reaches here and then refiring south. Others have the line blasting through. Shear actually looks halfway decent so I wouldn’t be surprised if a tornado or two spins up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted August 5, 2019 Report Share Posted August 5, 2019 I wish it was 'enhanced' for rain instead of wind. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted August 5, 2019 Report Share Posted August 5, 2019 Currently 73F here in NYC and feels fairly comfortable outside. Possible t'stms tomorrow. Perhaps strong to locally severe. What a beautiful stretch of days here. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted August 5, 2019 Report Share Posted August 5, 2019 Man I hope we get some rain tonight. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andie Posted August 5, 2019 Report Share Posted August 5, 2019 Enhanced Risk for much of the MW region for later tonight...CAM's show MN/IA are in the best spot for action later this afternoon...Not a chance here. Quote Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes. “If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.” Gen. Sheridan 1866 2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted August 5, 2019 Report Share Posted August 5, 2019 Enhanced area pulled northeast quite a bit. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iowawx Posted August 5, 2019 Report Share Posted August 5, 2019 I am hoping for and expecting some heavy rains tonight. I finished July about 2 inches below normal for rainfall here. Things are getting really dry around here and that is not good. The normal rainfall here for the month of August is 4.43 inches. I hope to get at least 0.5" but would really like to get as close to an inch as possible. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted August 5, 2019 Report Share Posted August 5, 2019 Enhanced area pulled northeast quite a bit. Has me in the Enhanced Risk area a little now... please make it happen. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted August 5, 2019 Report Share Posted August 5, 2019 Marshall and BC have both gone a solid month with little more than a ground wetting. Getting quite dry. Has to be a narrow area here were D0 conditions exist or soon will if the sunny and dry streak continues much longer. One extreme or the other anymore in this era it seems.. 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted August 5, 2019 Report Share Posted August 5, 2019 For as much rain as I have had, it has sure turned off in my immediate area. Storms have been ongoing almost everyday for a week west and north of here. However, these fizzle out within 15-20 miles of me. Yards are starting to show stress as we really haven’t seen any moisture here for over 2 weeks. Irrigation is in full swing. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted August 5, 2019 Report Share Posted August 5, 2019 The HRRR sure isn't enthusiastic about tonight's rain. Several recent runs show nothing but a widely scattered line of mostly weak crap passing through the area, with many locations remaining dry. I hope it's underplaying it. Best case for most locations around here is probably a 5-10 minute downpour that drops a few tenths. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted August 5, 2019 Report Share Posted August 5, 2019 None of the models picked up on the supercell potential this early after the morning line went north of the TC. A rogue cell about to smash the metro. Warning out now. Pretty big hail core according to radar. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted August 5, 2019 Report Share Posted August 5, 2019 Tennis ball size hail being reported in Watertown, MN west of the metro. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted August 5, 2019 Report Share Posted August 5, 2019 The HRRR sure isn't enthusiastic about tonight's rain. Several recent runs show nothing but a widely scattered line of mostly weak crap passing through the area, with many locations remaining dry. I hope it's underplaying it. Best case for most locations around here is probably a 5-10 minute downpour that drops a few tenths. HRRR could very well be right, but I don't put too much stock into it anymore based on some of its performances this summer. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andie Posted August 5, 2019 Report Share Posted August 5, 2019 In sharp contrast St. Paul Storm's day, No. Texas will have a high today of 95 heading for a week of 100-102* with high humidity. This is the 2-3 weeks that I dread every year. Hopefully we won't have a repeat in Sept. Bring on that early Fall, my friends !! They put a 20% chance of rain in the foercast today. Guess they just want us to feel better about it...... 3 Quote Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes. “If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.” Gen. Sheridan 1866 2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted August 5, 2019 Report Share Posted August 5, 2019 Crazy weather day. Our 2nd severe thunderstorm watch of the day just issued until 10pm. The core of the intense storm jumped over me but I had a good 15 min downpour with lightning. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iowawx Posted August 5, 2019 Report Share Posted August 5, 2019 Really need heavy rain here tonight. This is my front lawn. This is getting ridiculous. It seems like it just doesn’t want to rain in Cedar Rapids. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted August 5, 2019 Report Share Posted August 5, 2019 Really need heavy rain here tonight. This is my front lawn. This is getting ridiculous. It seems like it just doesn’t want to rain in Cedar Rapids.It's like that over here too. I haven't mowed in a month. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted August 5, 2019 Report Share Posted August 5, 2019 It's not quite as bad here, but it's getting towards that for sure. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted August 5, 2019 Report Share Posted August 5, 2019 Chance of rain has increased to 80% tonight. That's promising, at least. I'll even just take a couple tenths of an inch at this point. Better than nothing. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted August 5, 2019 Report Share Posted August 5, 2019 Starting to get going in NW IA Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted August 5, 2019 Report Share Posted August 5, 2019 Near full sun again and things ramping up south of St Cloud. MPX sent up a special balloon for this afternoon. Looks like rush hour disaster in the making. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iowawx Posted August 5, 2019 Report Share Posted August 5, 2019 Of course this doesn't look good for Cedar Rapids. No severe thunderstrom watch here, and there is nothing on radar now. I am so tired of this. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted August 5, 2019 Report Share Posted August 5, 2019 I'm in a watch till 11. Starting to pop up to the west Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted August 5, 2019 Report Share Posted August 5, 2019 Of course this doesn't look good for Cedar Rapids. No severe thunderstrom watch here, and there is nothing on radar now. I am so tired of this. To be fair, nobody in the DVN forecast area has a watch as of right now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted August 5, 2019 Author Report Share Posted August 5, 2019 4” hail stone reported in Delano, MN! Wowza! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted August 5, 2019 Report Share Posted August 5, 2019 This is the DVN's take on tonight's set-up...Tonight there are two main scenarios in play. Scenario 1 is that storms develop along the front and form a respectable band that moves into the highway 20 corridor around sunset and slowly weakens as it moves southeast through the area. Such a scenario would give better chances for most areas seeing some rain.Scenario 2 starts out similar to scenario 1 but storms fall apart much quicker as they enter the highway 20 corridor resulting in dry conditions for parts of the area.Given the abnormally dry conditions across the area and the moist bias in the models, scenario 2 does have merit.What may happen is that a respectable line develops ahead of the front and maintains itself through the development of a pool of cold air as it moves into the area. If this occurs then areas generally north of highway 30 would have the better chance of seeing rain before a fairly quick weakening of the line occurs as it moves southeast.If the above situation does occur then there would be a risk of damaging winds with the storms as they initially move into the area. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted August 6, 2019 Author Report Share Posted August 6, 2019 Pics of the 4" hail stones...that'll put some dents on your car... 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted August 6, 2019 Report Share Posted August 6, 2019 There's a nice line of storms over northern Iowa. However, the models have this line weakening and drying up by the time it reaches CR/IC. We'll see. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted August 6, 2019 Report Share Posted August 6, 2019 4” hail stone reported in Delano, MN! Wowza!My co-worker lives not far from there. She had 3” hail at her house. Siding was shredded, skylights cracked, roof shingles destroyed. That was a crazy storm. It only clipped far western St Paul so I missed the worst of it, thankfully. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted August 6, 2019 Author Report Share Posted August 6, 2019 My co-worker lives not far from there. She had 3” hail at her house. Siding was shredded, skylights cracked, roof shingles destroyed. That was a crazy storm. It only clipped far western St Paul so I missed the worst of it, thankfully.That’s impressive. It’s like softballs falling from the sky. Crazy updrafts with that storm cell. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted August 6, 2019 Report Share Posted August 6, 2019 Radar looks good. Hope it holds at least decent form. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andie Posted August 6, 2019 Report Share Posted August 6, 2019 I’ve been through a couple of those in Tx and it’s like being attacked by cannonballs. Really terrifying. The damage is really stunning. 1 Quote Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes. “If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.” Gen. Sheridan 1866 2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iowawx Posted August 6, 2019 Report Share Posted August 6, 2019 The line of storms looks very organized now. No sign of it losing it's strength. It is now south of highway 20, and I expect it here in Cedar Rapds in 30-45 minutes or so. Severe threat looks like it's pretty much done, but the rain could be heavy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted August 6, 2019 Report Share Posted August 6, 2019 Yeah, so far, so good. It still needs to hold together for one more hour for CR and two hours for IC. Dubuque is about to get a good downpour. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted August 6, 2019 Report Share Posted August 6, 2019 It’s raining good.. and quite windy. Very nice to see! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iowawx Posted August 6, 2019 Report Share Posted August 6, 2019 Yeah, so far, so good. It still needs to hold together for one more hour for CR and two hours for IC. Dubuque is about to get a good downpour.Looks like there is a hail core southeast of Waterloo. You see any sign of this falling apart before it gets here? Looks like it has strengthened in the past hour or so. I can already see the lightning off to the northwest. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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