September 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[Dave]

It's fappening! Nocturnal lighting. Rain is finally starting to stick.

[ShawniganLake]

It's fappening! Nocturnal lighting. Rain is finally starting to stick.

Someone go wake up tigerwoods

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Someone go wake up tigerwoods

I’m laying in bed with the blinds up. Staying up late can trigger more seizures so I try not to except for weather.

[Tyler Mode]

Nice lightning show off to the north from Battle Ground.  Warm morning too at 62.

[Front Ranger]

That's not me in the profile picture it's Gary Johnson. My brain just became fully developed and stopped growing in January.

25!

[MossMan]

Screenshot_20190905-221337_Instagram.jpg

Well when my grandparents built the lake house in the late 1950’s they used beautiful tongue and groove wood for the ceiling, then in the 1980’s they decided to cover it up with awesomely ugly white ceiling panels. When we did a full remodel a few years ago I was very excited to rip that crap down and expose the wood again. Changes in interior taste definitely take place over the years!

[TacomaWaWx]

Low of 61 degrees here last night. This is the 14th 60+ low of the year.

[Jesse]

Low of 61 degrees here last night. This is the 14th 60+ low of the year.

The warm nights should finally end this weekend. Looking forward to that.

 

Low of 63 here.

[TacomaWaWx]

The warm nights should finally end this weekend. Looking forward to that.

 

Low of 63 here.

can’t wait either! Latest gfs run looking more and more fall like with each run for this Sunday and Monday. Latest runs seem wetter than the previous runs for western OR and WA.

[Omegaraptor]

Did PeeDX just tie its warmest September low on record again?

 

If we did bottom out at 66, we also beat the daily record of 65, which was set in 2017. These records are actually so easy to break nowadays (thanks UHI).

[Jesse]

can’t wait either! Latest gfs run looking more and more fall like with each run for this Sunday and Monday. Latest runs seem wetter than the previous runs for western OR and WA.

Yeah, looking like a great soaking. Could be the death blow to any sort of fire season. Which is good since apparently lightning started a bunch of new fires down south overnight.

 

Most of the next week is looking pretty fall like. Even with that shortwave ridging building in late in the week we will see less muggy weather and cooler nights.

[TacomaWaWx]

Yeah, looking like a great soaking. Could be the death blow to any sort of fire season. Which is good since apparently lightning started a bunch of new fires down south overnight.

 

Most of the next week is looking pretty fall like. Even with that shortwave ridging building in late in the week we will see less muggy weather and cooler nights.

It’d be nice to start seeing some lows in the 40s. Have only had 5 nights in the 40s since 6/15, and the last one being 7/20. We’ve had 30 nights this summer 58+. Getting a night below 55 degrees was rare this summer.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Yeah the GFS is looking very nice.

[Omegaraptor]

 

 

12z is looking pretty wet and also wetter than previous runs (00 and 06). Wonder if this trend will continue.

[MossMan]

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12z is looking pretty wet and also wetter than previous runs (00 and 06). Wonder if this trend will continue.

Crap. Ordering my drain rock now.

[Jesse]

DDF054AA-E771-4386-965C-54986064E0C1.png

 

4DD13777-EF23-467D-9350-08646FF66EB6.png

 

12z is looking pretty wet and also wetter than previous runs (00 and 06). Wonder if this trend will continue.

A thing of beauty!

[TacomaWaWx]

DDF054AA-E771-4386-965C-54986064E0C1.png

 

4DD13777-EF23-467D-9350-08646FF66EB6.png

 

12z is looking pretty wet and also wetter than previous runs (00 and 06). Wonder if this trend will continue.

Latest run brings in another wet system next Saturday/Sunday out of the NW. Would be nice to see that verify.

[TacomaWaWx]

Saw this on mike ventrices Twitter.

[MossMan]

Saw this on mike ventrices Twitter.

Wet! Enjoy today because it’s over!

[El_Nina]

Well when my grandparents built the lake house in the late 1950’s they used beautiful tongue and groove wood for the ceiling, then in the 1980’s they decided to cover it up with awesomely ugly white ceiling panels. When we did a full remodel a few years ago I was very excited to rip that crap down and expose the wood again. Changes in interior taste definitely take place over the years!

Much better! See?

[Phil]

Impressive how the Gulf Stream is holding Dorian together despite strong NWerly shear and mid-level dry air intrusion.

 

If conditions were more favorable aloft, it’s a good bet Dorian would be a Cat3 right now. Easy to see how New Jersey could have been struck by a Cat4 in the 19th century.

 

[Phil]

That WPAC typhoon is occurring under boundary conditions that will respond easily to its diabatic/t-fluxes. Could be a large/amplified NPAC response later this month.

[Anti Marine Layer]

It was showing wind speeds of over 100 for Canada in the models, but hopefully this is in km/h.

 

Also sea surface temperatures in New York City are about 71 F right now. Cape Hatteras was about 78 F. Southern California is currently low to mid 70s. Regardless of sea surface temperatures the Pacific High and the subsidence inversion would still make it hard for a hurricane to hit Southern California. In 2006 the sea surface temperatures reached 80 F off the coast for a while here.

[Jesse]

That WPAC typhoon is occurring under boundary conditions that will respond easily to its diabatic/t-fluxes. Could be a large/amplified NPAC response later this month.

Mega ridge?

[Front Ranger]

Impressive how the Gulf Stream is holding Dorian together despite strong NWerly shear and mid-level dry air intrusion.

 

If conditions were more favorable aloft, it’s a good bet Dorian would be a Cat3 right now. Easy to see how New Jersey could have been struck by a Cat4 in the 19th century.

 

 

 

U.S. landfall (barely) as a Cat 1. Trump protects America yet again.

[Jesse]

Any Euro precip maps for next week. Shawnigan?

[TT-SEA]

[Deweydog]

Too bad he has you on ignore. That’s a pretty sexy map.

[Jesse]

Blessings from heaven.

[Jesse]

Too bad he has you on ignore. That’s a pretty sexy map.

Pretty easy to work around. There is a “view it anyway” option.

 

[Front Ranger]

I feel like I would click the "View it anyway" option quite a lot.

[Jesse]

I feel like I would click the "View it anyway" option quite a lot.

Is that what you do when you put the 240+ GFS on ignore.

[TT-SEA]

Pretty easy to work around. There is a “view it anyway” option.

 

0842D2E2-44FB-4EFB-9738-FAB8FA4D72D9.png

 

[Jesse]

Really nice pattern on the 12z Euro.

 

We’ve definitely paid some late summer/early fall ridgy and warm anomaly dues the last few weeks (despite it being a warmer than average summer anyway). Maybe the other shoe will drop for a little while.

[Deweydog]

I feel like I would click the "View it anyway" option quite a lot.

The strongest of convictions on display.

[Deweydog]

Really nice pattern on the 12z Euro.

 

We’ve definitely paid some late summer/early fall ridgy and warm anomaly dues the last few weeks (despite it being a warmer than average summer anyway). Maybe the other shoe will drop for a little while.

Did someone say warm up followed by cool down?????

[Jesse]

Did someone say warm up followed by cool down?????

It’s funny I was going to add a part about that too since I figured it was coming. You’re too easy.

[Front Ranger]

Is that what you do when you put the 240+ GFS on ignore.

 

Tim has more worthwhile info than the clown range GFS most the time. 

[Jesse]

Tim has more worthwhile info than the clown range GFS most the time.

Pretty close to neck ‘n neck IMO.

[Deweydog]

I’m putting everyone and the weather on ignore.

 

#ultimatecontrol

#keepthinskinintact