September 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Salem will end September with a negative departure. 2nd September in a row actually.

[Front Ranger]

OLM actually touched 29 this morning. First 20s in September in almost 20 years, and only the sixth time it's ever happened.

[Deweydog]

Nice day!

[Requiem]

This has been one of the best Septembers IMO so far-- strong thunderstorms at one point for most areas, a bona-fide early season bluster, record cold, and even a touch of heavy rain earlier in the month. It's been nice, I gotta say! A good sign for winter, I hope

[Timmy Supercell]

This has been one of the best Septembers IMO so far-- strong thunderstorms at one point for most areas, a bona-fide early season bluster, record cold, and even a touch of heavy rain earlier in the month. It's been nice, I gotta say! A good sign for winter, I hope

 

You wouldn't believe how easily uneventful of a month September can be in my area. There have been a couple that were bone dry, no t'storms, no cold, just 75-85 and clear nights. It has been interesting.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Heard 850s over SLE were a lackluster +1C.

[TacomaWaWx]

Euro doesn’t look quite as ridgy as the previous run. Still not in line with the gfs however.

[Jesse]

Heard 850s over SLE were a lackluster +1C.

I don’t think that’s right.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I don’t think that’s right.

 

I can't find a good link for the data and that is what Mark Nelsen told me.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Nice to see Alaska and Siberia fill with snow quick over the first third of October. I guess if you are the kind of person watching those teleconnections, then this is a good sign.

 

if I remember correctly, way back when, SnowWiz had an excel sheet showing a high correlation of Anchorage snowfall and even Halloween Snow and how loaded our winter was.

 

02-03 had an Arctic Halloween.

[Jesse]

[Jesse]

Euro doesn’t look quite as ridgy as the previous run. Still not in line with the gfs however.

It’s getting there. Seems like it usually takes it 2-3 runs to get its head on straight these days.

[Front Ranger]

Salem will end September with a negative departure. 2nd September in a row actually.

 

Overall, September has easily been the coolest warm season month since 2015. Four out of five now have been near normal to cool across most the region.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Biggest mistake anyone can make is paying any attention to the EURO.

 

Looks like 850s bottomed out at +0.6C at SLE yesterday at 12z according to my sources. 

[Requiem]

That pattern looks ripe for a wind event in mid October.

My interest hath been piqued. Though I have had strong winds twice this month so I’m not too restless.

[TT-SEA]

Beautiful day!

[TacomaWaWx]

It’s getting there. Seems like it usually takes it 2-3 runs to get its head on straight these days.

I usually don’t even track the euro just interested to see if it falls in line with the gfs.

[Deweydog]

The Euro is completely out to lunch.

[Jesse]

Sunny with an east wind and temps only in the mid-50s here, after a low well into the 30s.

 

Rarefied air for the end of September!

[TT-SEA]

I usually don’t even track the euro just interested to see if it falls in line with the gfs.

ECMWF is definitely the worst model by a long shot and has been for years. Good for comedy though.

[TacomaWaWx]

55 and sunny right now. Nice cool north breeze.

[Front Ranger]

ECMWF is definitely the worst model by a long shot and has been for years. Good for comedy though.

 

Nice to have now that the NAM has been dispatched.

[seattleweatherguy]

That pattern looks ripe for a wind event in mid October.

Nice can’t wait

[snow_wizard]

Really rare to see every GFS ensemble member on board for a cold trough next while the Euro operational is warm and the EPS is meh.  We'll have to wait a couple of days to know it appears.

[snow_wizard]

02-03 had an Arctic Halloween.

 

I thought 2003 was much more impressive.  At least for my area.

[snow_wizard]

A picture I found on facebook someone shared from Heart Butte, Montana. There is already FIVE feet and it's not October yet.

 

Other people from Montana saying this much is very early for them.

 

 

Talk about ridiculous for this early!

[jcmcgaffey]

OLM actually touched 29 this morning. First 20s in September in almost 20 years, and only the sixth time it's ever happened.

wow what is the record low for sept?

[Requiem]

I thought 2003 was much more impressive.  At least for my area.

 

I would love a 2003=2004 repeat. That was an excellent winter, for sure.

[Front Ranger]

wow what is the record low for sept?

 

25 from 9/27/72. 2000 came close with a low of 26.

 

Seems possible OLM could get into the 25-28 range tonight...but of course, not before September ends. The next sub-26 record isn't until 10/13.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Yeah the October 2002 blast was very impressive in Oregon. -11 at Seneca, -7 at Burns, 17 in Eugene. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Update. Mark said 850s bottomed out Saturday morning at +0.4C, I'll have to dig up Justin's post to see where that ranks. 

[ShawniganLake]

Nice to have now that the NAM has been dispatched.

When does that happen?

[Deweydog]

Lars just declared an end to global warming due to Spokane’s historic snowfall.

 

Anyone wanna hit Red Robin to celebrate?

[ShawniganLake]

Euro and gfs from 7 days ago, focused on this mornings 500mb pattern

 

 

 

 

And here’s what happened. Euro is a dumpster fire.

 

[TacomaWaWx]

Suprised the Nws only has a Frost Advisory around the Olympia/chehalis area.

[seattleweatherguy]

Lars just declared an end to global warming due to Spokane’s historic snowfall.

 

Anyone wanna hit Red Robin to celebrate?

Pub Mac and cheese sounds good

[TigerWoodsLibido]

I completely forgot about that 2003 Halloween.  Got down to 20F but the precip wrapped up before it got to freezing down here.

[Timmy Supercell]

I would love a 2003=2004 repeat. That was an excellent winter, for sure.

 

That season did feature early snowfalls in Portland as well, just to show that if this Fall ends up really cool it may not be a bad thing for the rest of winter.

 

I experienced my earliest lowland snow event in Nov 2003 where I used to live in Wash. County. 2 months before the big one we all remember.

October had a couple good t'storms roll through Beaverton. Some of the wildest cold core storms next to the one in 1998 that downed a few trees near my house in Milwaukie.

[Deweydog]

Pub Mac and cheese sounds good

Not driving!

[Front Ranger]

When does that happen?

 

Actually, I'm not sure. Could have sworn earlier this year it was announced, but it's still around for now and I can't dig up anything on if/when it will go away.