Jesse Posted October 10, 2019 Report Share Posted October 10, 2019 Nice day over here in Central Oregon. https://scontent-sea1-1.xx.fbcdn./v/t1.0-9/71810832_682333562274_8622158885513330688_n.jp?_nc_cat=109&_nc_eui2=AeENrXJ9m8LvFzD9rQoMSux5UrChtP44Hshww9gcYXcFDYmWjyJ5MjA0CWbGdgMa4jYSI1QotfeW5_h9pvpKd_3OIsx0wit7KCpeqUC1m2Y7Zg&_nc_oc=AQlYJRUASOMrLm1j1Bu_mpcJEAxQLAO4ggNxYpKe-IOhV1JlIJT22BLuat5BqoDALQg&_nc_ht=scontent-sea1-1.xx&oh=aa12ba9e360f6e4cc4becdce6e4e2390&oe=5E288211[/imgHopefully you brought you’re tanning butter! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted October 10, 2019 Report Share Posted October 10, 2019 Well, the weaker the ENSO, the less likely it is to follow a script. All else being equal. Last winter was weak ENSO.This seems fair. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted October 10, 2019 Report Share Posted October 10, 2019 Wish I could capture a day like this in a bottle. There really is no beating morning frost followed by crisp sunshine on October 9th.Heavy snow, blowing snow with temperatures falling through the 20’s beats it in my book. But to each their own.... Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted October 10, 2019 Report Share Posted October 10, 2019 Hopefully you brought you’re tanning butter! Brought plenty of nutter butter. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted October 10, 2019 Author Report Share Posted October 10, 2019 It just got really smokey in downtown K-Falls. Smells bad too. Folks on a facebook Klamath group keep saying it's a controlled burn (from around Keno) but I'm not buying that. This is way too much smoke. Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 21 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, 5/4, 5/5, 5/6, 5/7 5/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted October 10, 2019 Report Share Posted October 10, 2019 Weak Nina. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted October 10, 2019 Report Share Posted October 10, 2019 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted October 10, 2019 Report Share Posted October 10, 2019 Maybe a 50/50 shot at PDX getting to tie their record for Thursday morning, which is 35 from 1960. They managed 37 this morning with a bit more mixing and a less continental airmass. As Shawnigan mentioned, 1960-61 is now a major analog and it was an absolute piss-pile of a winter for the PNW. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted October 10, 2019 Report Share Posted October 10, 2019 Maybe a 50/50 shot at PDX getting to tie their record for Thursday morning, which is 35 from 1960. They managed 37 this morning with a bit more mixing and a less continental airmass. As Shawnigan mentioned, 1960-61 is now a major analog and it was an absolute piss-pile of a winter for the PNW. Seems we are screwed - Phil 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted October 10, 2019 Report Share Posted October 10, 2019 I’m getting the impression we may not be entirely sure how this winter may turn out. Thoughts?? 3 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted October 10, 2019 Report Share Posted October 10, 2019 Heavy snow, blowing snow with temperatures falling through the 20’s beats it in my book. But to each their own....Fo sho Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest CulverJosh Posted October 10, 2019 Report Share Posted October 10, 2019 When it starts snowing at 32 and you know the temp will drop 10-15 degrees during the storm are the best ones. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted October 10, 2019 Report Share Posted October 10, 2019 Seems we are screwed - Phil +IOD, Record strong El Nino, Blob, Solar stuff The capitol rotunda in D.C. is going to collapse due to all the snow and the Mt. Rainier glaciers will be gone by March. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted October 10, 2019 Report Share Posted October 10, 2019 The weak solar is real. Wonder how many Feb/Mar 2019s and early fall 2019s it will take to make some of you believers. 2 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted October 10, 2019 Author Report Share Posted October 10, 2019 I’m getting the impression we may not be entirely sure how this winter may turn out. Thoughts?? #WidespreadUncertainty 1 Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 21 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, 5/4, 5/5, 5/6, 5/7 5/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted October 10, 2019 Report Share Posted October 10, 2019 Low solar allegiance. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted October 10, 2019 Report Share Posted October 10, 2019 The weak solar s**t is real. Wonder how many Feb/Mar 2019s and early fall 2019s it will take to make some of you believers.2008-09. 1995-96. 1985-86. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted October 10, 2019 Report Share Posted October 10, 2019 The weak solar s**t is real. Wonder how many Feb/Mar 2019s and early fall 2019s it will take to make some of you believers. 1933-34. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_cycle_17 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 10, 2019 Report Share Posted October 10, 2019 The weak solar s**t is real. Wonder how many Feb/Mar 2019s and early fall 2019s it will take to make some of you believers.Extreme blocking can cut both ways. I was expecting a repeat of the February pattern (of some sort) this fall... just not this early. But ask Phil about how cold it has been there with the same low solar. If the blocking progresses or retrogrades... it could put the West under endless ridging while other places are in the deep freeze. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted October 10, 2019 Report Share Posted October 10, 2019 Heavy snow, blowing snow with temperatures falling through the 20’s beats it in my book. But to each their own....I really like that too. I also really liked the thunderstorms on 8/9-8/10. But f*ck me right? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted October 10, 2019 Report Share Posted October 10, 2019 1933-34. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_cycle_17Haven't you been the guy to poo poo older analogs in the past? Recent history strongly suggests low solar is usually better. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted October 10, 2019 Report Share Posted October 10, 2019 Haven't you been the guy to poo poo older analogs in the past? Recent history strongly suggests low solar is usually better. Yes, I'm sure the impacts are just dramatically different and more favorable now that the Earth is a couple degrees warmer. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted October 10, 2019 Report Share Posted October 10, 2019 I really like that too. I also really liked the thunderstorms on 8/9-8/10. But f*ck me right?Probably better for everyone if you just went ahead and but f*cked yourself. 2 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 10, 2019 Report Share Posted October 10, 2019 The weak solar s**t is real. Wonder how many Feb/Mar 2019s and early fall 2019s it will take to make some of you believers. I'm pretty convinced there is something to it. The fact 1985 and 2008 had similar stuff and were both at solar min is hard to ignore. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted October 10, 2019 Report Share Posted October 10, 2019 Extreme blocking can cut both ways. I was expecting a repeat of the February pattern (of some sort) this fall... just not this early. But ask Phil about how cold it has been there with the same low solar. If the blocking progresses or retrogrades... it could put the West under endless ridging while other places are in the deep freeze.Of course. But we've been over this. Greater high latitude blocking = greater chance of mid latitude cold. Odds increase across the board. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted October 10, 2019 Report Share Posted October 10, 2019 Impressive cold trough in late September 1933 as well. With a burgeoning La Nina and tanking PDO. And historic cold the preceding February. This is totally our year, guys! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted October 10, 2019 Report Share Posted October 10, 2019 Yes, I'm sure the impacts are just dramatically different and more favorable now that the Earth is a couple degrees warmer.Climate really is THAT simple. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 10, 2019 Report Share Posted October 10, 2019 What an amazing day it was. Crystal clear and a high of only 51 imby. It appears this was the coldest high temp I have ever recorded with clear skies this early in the season. No doubt tonight is going to be one of the coldest ever recorded this early in many places. My numbers so far today are 51-34. 11 degrees below normal! 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted October 10, 2019 Report Share Posted October 10, 2019 The weak solar s**t is real. Wonder how many Feb/Mar 2019s and early fall 2019s it will take to make some of you believers.100 dollars on Grand Minimum Death to the northern lights....I want cold and snow! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 10, 2019 Report Share Posted October 10, 2019 Impressive cold trough in late September 1933 as well. With a burgeoning La Nina and tanking PDO. And historic cold the preceding February. This is totally our year, guys! I have been looking at 1933 for a while now, but that year was obviously a fluke as it was warmest La Nina winter ever. It goes to show anything can happen, but the preponderance of the evidence says we get hit good this winter. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted October 10, 2019 Report Share Posted October 10, 2019 It’s a lock! Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_statman Posted October 10, 2019 Report Share Posted October 10, 2019 Already in the single digits this evening in parts of Montana. 1 degree currently at Lima Reservoir and other spots in the 5 - 7 degree F range. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest CulverJosh Posted October 10, 2019 Report Share Posted October 10, 2019 Cold air spilling east of the Rockies is a PNW norm. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted October 10, 2019 Report Share Posted October 10, 2019 2008-09. 1995-96. 1985-86.All those winters had a little piece of everything. I'll take a blend of all 3. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 10, 2019 Report Share Posted October 10, 2019 Cold air spilling east of the Rockies is a PNW norm. It's not like we didn't get any though. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted October 10, 2019 Report Share Posted October 10, 2019 The heater is down...time to make a run for 32* Currently 47* 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest CulverJosh Posted October 10, 2019 Report Share Posted October 10, 2019 It's not like we didn't get any though.Hey, I am happy to be the next best thing. East of the Cascades . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 10, 2019 Report Share Posted October 10, 2019 The NWS issued a freeze warning for SW WA. Very rare to see that. Another interesting tidbit on their website mentions this is the first year SEA had a low below 40 in the first ten days of October since 1990. Nearly every year being thrown around was a season that featured big league cold. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 10, 2019 Report Share Posted October 10, 2019 The heater is down...time to make a run for 32* Currently 47* You mean your heater doesn't work at all? Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 10, 2019 Report Share Posted October 10, 2019 Hey, I am happy to be the next best thing. East of the Cascades . I hear you but it's still an impressive cold airmass for everywhere. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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