October 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[Deweydog]

Sorry. It was an accident. I fully admit to lacking punctuation skills.

Duumb auss.

[Jesse]

Pre-winter anxiety on a weather forum?

 

What’s next, children wearing shirts????????

 

Seems like the promise/potential for letdown signaled by the pattern the last few weeks has kicked it up a notch or two above normal.

 

And before you call me above the fray, I never said I wasn't anxious!

[Jesse]

Sorry. It was an accident. I fully admit to lacking punctuation skills.

 

I was always curious about the leaving off a question mark thing, but I've noticed that's become a trend of sorts among many people. I guess there are questions that are more like a statement than a question sometimes.

[Deweydog]

Seems like the promise/potential for letdown signaled by the pattern the last few weeks has kicked it up a notch or two above normal.

 

And before you call me above the fray, I never said I wasn't anxious!

Come on up. We’re all putting our chains on for Black Friday.

[BLI snowman]

Wind definitely keeping the temps up so far in the Portland metro tonight compared to last night.

 

Don't really see any way to spin this as a positive sign for winter.

[Front Ranger]

I was always curious about the leaving off a question mark thing, but I've noticed that's become a trend of sorts among many people. I guess there are questions that are more like a statement than a question sometimes.

Huh

[Deweydog]

F*ck.

[Jesse]

Huh

 

What are you getting at here

[Jesse]

We are so f*cked...

 

[ShawniganLake]

We are so f*cked...

 

717A569F-7E89-4196-B3C2-7C285BF164A6.png

2 cold troughs followed by rain and lowering sun angles. Doesn’t get much worse than that.

[snow_wizard]

Down to 36 now.  A bit colder than I was expecting this early.

[Deweydog]

Just when you think the sun angles can’t get any lower.....

 

They start going up.

 

Ugh.

[MossMan]

We are so f*cked...

 

717A569F-7E89-4196-B3C2-7C285BF164A6.png

Forks.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

39F in the south valley. Pretty moon and stars out.

 

Also, EUG records go back to 1939 but they kept earlier records downtown which are available on ACIS2.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

35 here. Victoria highlands are already sub freezing. Not bad. Will probably see a freeze here tonight.

 

Still 42F here, but with a 25F dewpoint.

[Requiem]

We are so f*cked...

 

717A569F-7E89-4196-B3C2-7C285BF164A6.png

 

Sun angle looks atrocious.

[snow_wizard]

Since 1950, the only low solar period that hasn't treated the PNW well is the 1970s one. And there were some epic winters elsewhere in the NH with that.

 

Very true.  1976-77 was the most ridiculously blocked winter I have ever witnessed.  Even though most of the goodies were east of the Rockies that winter January was still pretty cold here.  That month featured what was probably the greatest episode of fake cold on record for Landsburg.  For some reason that station was much colder than most places in Western WA.

[snow_wizard]

I always sort of wondered how this forum would react to a promising, 1985ish pre-season with a couple historic cold snaps by mid-October.

 

I got my answer. A whole lotta anxiety!

 

Makes zero sense to me.  There is basically no year that had a true cold pattern in the first half of October that didn't have a great winter afterward.  The correlation is certainly over 80%.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Down to 34.

 

Down to 34 at KBLI, too. Looks like my first freeze of the season is on its way.

[Jesse]

Makes zero sense to me. There is basically no year that had a true cold pattern in the first half of October that didn't have a great winter afterward. The correlation is certainly over 80%.

PuyallupJon says it’s over man. All I needed to hear.

[snow_wizard]

We are so f*cked...

 

717A569F-7E89-4196-B3C2-7C285BF164A6.png

 

The next trough is trending colder now.  Not surprised!  The first half of the month is going to average way below normal.

[Winterdog]

31.7 now. Shooting for 25. The third freeze this fall already.

[snow_wizard]

Down to 34 at KBLI, too. Looks like my first freeze of the season is on its way.

 

These numbers are looking amazing tonight.  My temperature is still falling at a decent clip and is now 35.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

All the haruspicating here is amusing to read.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

All the haruspicating here is amusing to read.

Intestine watching? ‘Haru’ like ‘hernia’ and ‘(s)pic’ like ‘spectacle’

[Jesse]

Intestine watching? Haru like ‘hernia’ and ‘(s)pic’ like ‘spectacle’

 

Predicting the future by observing the endtrails of sacrificial animals.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Predicting the future by observing the endtrails of sacrificial animals.

 

In other words, all the drama caused by posters attempting to extrapolate what the coming winter will be like.

[Jesse]

VUO already down to 39. DP 31.

 

Wind has been keeping things up compared to last night at this time here, but the airmass isn't nearly as close to saturation either. 42 currently with a DP of 30. Once things go calm it should really start to drop

[Jesse]

In other words, all the drama caused by posters attempting to extrapolate what the coming winter will be like.

 

Kind of a big part of what this place is for...

 

That and homeless discussion. Unhousedspicating?

[TigerWoodsLibido]

38F and DP 32F just crazy for this early.

[snow_wizard]

Trough number 3 is beginning to shape up nicely on the 0z GFS in the day 9 / day 10 period.  That one almost has a Ninaish look to it.  It seems pretty crazy to be discouraged by this amazing October.

[ShawniganLake]

Still 42F here, but with a 25F dewpoint.

34F here now. So we’ve only dropped 1 degree in the past 2 hours with clear skies and calm winds. That’s pretty common here. The temp free falls just around sunset and levels off late night in the evening. I’ll bet we bottom out around 31-32F.

[GHweatherChris]

2019-20

11/20

4:20 for some

Or this is it, just October.

[Phil]

Trough number 3 is beginning to shape up nicely on the 0z GFS in the day 9 / day 10 period. That one almost has a Ninaish look to it. It seems pretty crazy to be discouraged by this amazing October.

I assume you mean niño-ish?

 

That’s a jet extension/Aleutian Low pattern. Would likely register as +PNA.

 

[Jesse]

I assume you mean niño-ish? That’s a +PNA type jet extension/Aleutian Low pattern.

 

 

You tell him daniel1!

[Deweydog]

The only thing that would have made this winter better was if it had killed Tim.

[GHweatherChris]

Nina

[Jesse]

The only thing that would have made this winter better was if it had killed Tim.

Winter ain’t over yet!

[Deweydog]

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=0f0TMfQNRk8

[Phil]

You tell him daniel1!

I’m sorry reality bothers you. Bite me.