October 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[wx_statman]

Impressive cold trough in late September 1933 as well.

 

With a burgeoning La Nina and tanking PDO. And historic cold the preceding February.

 

This is totally our year, guys!

 

Also an impressive cold shot into Montana around 10/21-22. Things looked bright. 

[snow_wizard]

Also an impressive cold shot into Montana around 10/21-22. Things looked bright. 

 

It would be nice to know what went wrong in 1933, but there simply isn't enough info available.  FWIW the solar min in that cycle was fairly ho hum compared to this one and ENSO won't be as cold this season.

[Guest CulverJosh]

I hear you but it's still an impressive cold airmass for everywhere.

Where are you exactly? Can I get a google map?

[wx_statman]

It would be nice to know what went wrong in 1933, but there simply isn't enough info available.  FWIW the solar min in that cycle was fairly ho hum compared to this one and ENSO won't be as cold this season.

 

I would chalk it up to the erratic nature of the 1930s. The climate system was pretty out of whack that decade. But yeah, it would be pretty fascinating to know exactly why that winter turned out the way it did.  

[wx_statman]

Looks like today's 57/37 at PDX was the first

 

This is for pre-October 10th.

[BLI snowman]

It would be nice to know what went wrong in 1933, but there simply isn't enough info available.  FWIW the solar min in that cycle was fairly ho hum compared to this one and ENSO won't be as cold this season.

 

I think it's very comparable as far as solar goes. August and December 1933 both had a 0.4 sunspot mean and August 2019 just put up a 0.7 mean (the lowest month to date in this cycle).

 

The reality is that there just isn't a huge correlation between solar and PNW arctic outbreaks. In order for it to work, there has to be an inverse correlation as well and there just isn't. Some of the winters surrounding solar maxes include 2013-14, 1988-89, 1979-80, 1968-69, and 1936-37.

[Blizzard777]

You mean your heater doesn't work at all?

There goes the sun...do do do dooo

there goes the sun....it’s alright do do do do doooo doooo 

[Jesse]

It’s a lock!

Jim is SO dumb. Lol!

[jakeinthevalley]

Down to 45f in West Salem now. Watching NLDS. Feels like fall now

[Deweydog]

Purdy sunset.

[Deweydog]

Jim is SO dumb. Lol!

You should “teach” him stuff!

[Jesse]

You should “teach” him stuff!

Three years of teaching kids to read good and to do other stuff good too is indeed one of the more shameful chapters of my life to date.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Down to 45F at EUG, 44F in Springfield.

[Blizzard777]

Hey, I am happy to be the next best thing. East of the Cascades .

That’s definitely a better place to be 

[Guest CulverJosh]

Long term looks active. Subject to change.

[jakeinthevalley]

Down to 43f now with not a hint of wind.

Think a nice hot bowl of poutine sounds good about now, Eh?

[MossMan]

Came home early today to take advantage of the glorious day and do some mowing/leaf clean up. Then enjoyed the early evening out on the property with the dogs, and then popped up the hill to our neighbors to see the sunset. Not bad. And my drainage project will be completed by Sunday! It can rain all it wants after that.

 

Currently 38 degrees with a DP of 32.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

When I got home this evening, there were several mosquitoes hanging out on the front door, seeking the warmth leaking through it. Apparently they sense the inevitable will probably happen tonight.

 

KBLI down to 41˚F already.

[snow_wizard]

The NWS is too high for the East Puget Sound Lowlands tonight.  I'm going for 27-32 for most places.  If it goes below 30 here it will be the earliest I've ever recorded a low below 30 out of all of the places I've lived in the ESPL.

[GHweatherChris]

Down to 43f now with not a hint of wind.

Think a nice hot bowl of poutine sounds good about now, Eh?

How about some short rib poutine?

 

[Deweydog]

[Phil]

Sure. Maybe once the ice age finally hits we can throw the rule book out the window.

 

Seems like El Niño’s and La Niñas have been following a pretty general script around here as long as we’ve been recording weather, though. Outlier years like 1968-69 or 2018-19 notwithstanding.

1965/66, 1972/73, 1979/80, 1992/93, and 2006/07 were also decent +ENSO winters out there.

 

Also plenty of crappy -ENSO winters..2012/13 2001/02, 1999/00, 1975/76, 1974/75, and debatably 2007/08 and 2005/06.

 

ENSO can be expressed in a multitude of ways.

[Phil]

Maybe a 50/50 shot at PDX getting to tie their record for Thursday morning, which is 35 from 1960. They managed 37 this morning with a bit more mixing and a less continental airmass.

 

As Shawnigan mentioned, 1960-61 is now a major analog and it was an absolute piss-pile of a winter for the PNW.

Why is 1960/61 an analog? I don’t see much similarity in the tropics or from solar. And it was a much faster QBO cycle too..was already full easterly by Thanksgiving. Not even in the shear stage.

[GHweatherChris]

2019-20 style winter coming our way.

[Jbolin]

Three years of teaching kids to read good and to do other stuff good too is indeed one of the more shameful chapters of my life to date.

Is this a school for ants?

[Phil]

+IOD, Record strong El Nino, Blob, Solar stuff

 

The capitol rotunda in D.C. is going to collapse due to all the snow and the Mt. Rainier glaciers will be gone by March.

Lol. Have the models gone to crap or something? I’ve been taking a beating in here for a few days now.

[Jbolin]

I once helped save a guy’s life with an AED. Pretty proud of that, but it didn’t make me a doctor.

Daddies don't let your sons grow up to be lawyers?

 

Side Note: I did stay at a Holiday Inn Express once...

[Phil]

Extreme blocking can cut both ways. I was expecting a repeat of the February pattern (of some sort) this fall... just not this early.

 

But ask Phil about how cold it has been there with the same low solar. If the blocking progresses or retrogrades... it could put the West under endless ridging while other places are in the deep freeze.

This.

 

Blocking certainly amplifies extremes and increases the potential for epic wx in climates that seldom see it. But if you’re in the wrong place..ouch.

[Phil]

 

Yes, I'm sure the impacts are just dramatically different and more favorable now that the Earth is a couple degrees warmer.

Not how it works.

 

The effects of solar forcing vary non-linearly over time as the multitude of quasi-stable boundary conditions (which act as communicative conduits for said forcing) also change. It’s complicated and not completely understood.

 

Global temperature might be largely irrelevant here.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Looking at some traffic cams around the province the Banff - Lake Louise area looks as though it were the middle of winter. I'd say they have a good shot at a white Thanksgiving this weekend.

 

 

[Front Ranger]

I think it's very comparable as far as solar goes. August and December 1933 both had a 0.4 sunspot mean and August 2019 just put up a 0.7 mean (the lowest month to date in this cycle).

 

The reality is that there just isn't a huge correlation between solar and PNW arctic outbreaks. In order for it to work, there has to be an inverse correlation as well and there just isn't. Some of the winters surrounding solar maxes include 2013-14, 1988-89, 1979-80, 1968-69, and 1936-37.

Keep doubting. You'll probably end up looking as silly as you did with your comments before 2008-09.

 

Winters in recent decades around solar min have had more Arctic outbreaks than other winters. Percentages.

 

Are you disputing that greater blocking accompanies low solar, in general? Because there is no logical way to argue greater blocking doesn't increase chances of Arctic air.

[Phil]

Impressive cold trough in late September 1933 as well.

 

With a burgeoning La Nina and tanking PDO. And historic cold the preceding February.

 

This is totally our year, guys!

I’ve never been a fan of that Sep/Oct correlation stuff either, but whatever.

[BLI snowman]

Keep doubting. You'll probably end up looking as silly as you did with your comments before 2008-09.

 

Winters in recent decades around solar min have had more Arctic outbreaks than other winters. Percentages.

 

Are you disputing that greater blocking accompanies low solar, in general? Because there is no logical way to argue greater blocking doesn't increase chances of Arctic air.

 

 

2013-14 was probably the blockiest winter of the 21st century across North America.

 

Confirmation bias.

[Front Ranger]

2013-14 was probably the blockiest winter of the 21st century across North America.

 

Confirmation bias.

Percentages. Would you like me to show you the 500mb anomalies the past 50 years around solar min winters vs solar max? I'd be happy to.

[Phil]

I think it's very comparable as far as solar goes. August and December 1933 both had a 0.4 sunspot mean and August 2019 just put up a 0.7 mean (the lowest month to date in this cycle).

 

The reality is that there just isn't a huge correlation between solar and PNW arctic outbreaks. In order for it to work, there has to be an inverse correlation as well and there just isn't. Some of the winters surrounding solar maxes include 2013-14, 1988-89, 1979-80, 1968-69, and 1936-37.

The solar correlation only exists when you factor for QBO since the sign of momentum deposition will either constructively/destructively interfere with the solar conduit to blocking (static stability via mass circulation/O^3 fluxes, etc) depending on the sign/pressure level of the downwelling shear stress.

 

There’s a correlation during -QBO at/below 40mb. While in +QBO at/below 40mb, solar is rendered largely irrelevant.

[BLI snowman]

Not how it works.

 

The effects of solar forcing vary non-linearly over time as the multitude of quasi-stable boundary conditions (which act as communicative conduits for said forcing) also change. It’s complicated and not completely understood.

 

Global temperature might be largely irrelevant here.

 

Jared's point that recent solar minimums are somehow acting differently than previous ones is pure drivel, not sure why you left that alone. And external factors like the global temperature baseline will always be relevant. There's a reason why the extremes nowadays still aren't as extreme. 

[BLI snowman]

Percentages. Would you like me to show you the 500mb anomalies the past 50 years around solar min winters vs solar max? I'd be happy to.

 

1978-79 was surrounding a solar maximum as well.

 

A real lack of blocking with that one.

[Phil]

Jared's point that recent solar minimums are somehow acting differently than previous ones is pure drivel, not sure why you left that alone. And external factors like the global temperature baseline will always be relevant. There's a reason why the extremes nowadays still aren't as extreme.

I didn’t read his post, but I’d argue that the system’s response to solar forcing has indeed changed (and substantially) since the 1930s. These correlations are never static..they vary just as the climate system itself does.

[MossMan]

1978-79 was surrounding a solar maximum as well.

 

A real lack of blocking with that one.

Winter cancel.

[snow_wizard]

Already down to 41 here.