October 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[Jesse]

Nice day over here in Central Oregon.

 

https://scontent-sea1-1.xx.fbcdn./v/t1.0-9/71810832_682333562274_8622158885513330688_n.jp?_nc_cat=109&_nc_eui2=AeENrXJ9m8LvFzD9rQoMSux5UrChtP44Hshww9gcYXcFDYmWjyJ5MjA0CWbGdgMa4jYSI1QotfeW5_h9pvpKd_3OIsx0wit7KCpeqUC1m2Y7Zg&_nc_oc=AQlYJRUASOMrLm1j1Bu_mpcJEAxQLAO4ggNxYpKe-IOhV1JlIJT22BLuat5BqoDALQg&_nc_ht=scontent-sea1-1.xx&oh=aa12ba9e360f6e4cc4becdce6e4e2390&oe=5E288211[/img

Hopefully you brought you’re tanning butter!

[Jesse]

Well, the weaker the ENSO, the less likely it is to follow a script. All else being equal. Last winter was weak ENSO.

This seems fair.

[Deweydog]

Wish I could capture a day like this in a bottle. There really is no beating morning frost followed by crisp sunshine on October 9th.

Heavy snow, blowing snow with temperatures falling through the 20’s beats it in my book. But to each their own....

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Hopefully you brought you’re tanning butter!

 

Brought plenty of nutter butter.

[Timmy Supercell]

It just got really smokey in downtown K-Falls. Smells bad too. Folks on a facebook Klamath group keep saying it's a controlled burn (from around Keno) but I'm not buying that. This is way too much smoke. 

[GHweatherChris]

Weak Nina.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

[BLI snowman]

Maybe a 50/50 shot at PDX getting to tie their record for Thursday morning, which is 35 from 1960. They managed 37 this morning with a bit more mixing and a less continental airmass.

 

As Shawnigan mentioned, 1960-61 is now a major analog and it was an absolute piss-pile of a winter for the PNW.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Maybe a 50/50 shot at PDX getting to tie their record for Thursday morning, which is 35 from 1960. They managed 37 this morning with a bit more mixing and a less continental airmass.

 

As Shawnigan mentioned, 1960-61 is now a major analog and it was an absolute piss-pile of a winter for the PNW.

 

Seems we are screwed - Phil

[Deweydog]

I’m getting the impression we may not be entirely sure how this winter may turn out. Thoughts??

[GHweatherChris]

Heavy snow, blowing snow with temperatures falling through the 20’s beats it in my book. But to each their own....

Fo sho

[Guest CulverJosh]

When it starts snowing at 32 and you know the temp will drop 10-15 degrees during the storm are the best ones.

[BLI snowman]

Seems we are screwed - Phil

 

 

+IOD, Record strong El Nino, Blob, Solar stuff

 

The capitol rotunda in D.C. is going to collapse due to all the snow and the Mt. Rainier glaciers will be gone by March.

[Front Ranger]

The weak solar is real. Wonder how many Feb/Mar 2019s and early fall 2019s it will take to make some of you believers.

[Timmy Supercell]

I’m getting the impression we may not be entirely sure how this winter may turn out. Thoughts??

 

#WidespreadUncertainty

[Deweydog]

Low solar allegiance.

[Omegaraptor]

The weak solar s**t is real. Wonder how many Feb/Mar 2019s and early fall 2019s it will take to make some of you believers.

2008-09.

 

1995-96.

 

1985-86.

[BLI snowman]

The weak solar s**t is real. Wonder how many Feb/Mar 2019s and early fall 2019s it will take to make some of you believers.

 

1933-34.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_cycle_17

[TT-SEA]

The weak solar s**t is real. Wonder how many Feb/Mar 2019s and early fall 2019s it will take to make some of you believers.

Extreme blocking can cut both ways. I was expecting a repeat of the February pattern (of some sort) this fall... just not this early.

 

But ask Phil about how cold it has been there with the same low solar. If the blocking progresses or retrogrades... it could put the West under endless ridging while other places are in the deep freeze.

[Jesse]

Heavy snow, blowing snow with temperatures falling through the 20’s beats it in my book. But to each their own....

I really like that too.

 

I also really liked the thunderstorms on 8/9-8/10.

 

But f*ck me right?

[Front Ranger]

1933-34.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_cycle_17

Haven't you been the guy to poo poo older analogs in the past?

 

Recent history strongly suggests low solar is usually better.

[BLI snowman]

Haven't you been the guy to poo poo older analogs in the past?

 

Recent history strongly suggests low solar is usually better.

 

 

Yes, I'm sure the impacts are just dramatically different and more favorable now that the Earth is a couple degrees warmer.

[Deweydog]

I really like that too.

 

I also really liked the thunderstorms on 8/9-8/10.

 

But f*ck me right?

Probably better for everyone if you just went ahead and but f*cked yourself.

[snow_wizard]

The weak solar s**t is real. Wonder how many Feb/Mar 2019s and early fall 2019s it will take to make some of you believers.

 

I'm pretty convinced there is something to it.  The fact 1985 and 2008 had similar stuff and were both at solar min is hard to ignore.

[Front Ranger]

Extreme blocking can cut both ways. I was expecting a repeat of the February pattern (of some sort) this fall... just not this early.

 

But ask Phil about how cold it has been there with the same low solar. If the blocking progresses or retrogrades... it could put the West under endless ridging while other places are in the deep freeze.

Of course. But we've been over this. Greater high latitude blocking = greater chance of mid latitude cold. Odds increase across the board.

[BLI snowman]

Impressive cold trough in late September 1933 as well.

 

With a burgeoning La Nina and tanking PDO. And historic cold the preceding February.

 

This is totally our year, guys!

[Front Ranger]

 

Yes, I'm sure the impacts are just dramatically different and more favorable now that the Earth is a couple degrees warmer.

Climate really is THAT simple.

[snow_wizard]

What an amazing day it was.  Crystal clear and a high of only 51 imby.  It appears this was the coldest high temp I have ever recorded with clear skies this early in the season.  No doubt tonight is going to be one of the coldest ever recorded this early in many places.

 

My numbers so far today are 51-34.  11 degrees below normal!

[Blizzard777]

The weak solar s**t is real. Wonder how many Feb/Mar 2019s and early fall 2019s it will take to make some of you believers.

100 dollars on Grand Minimum 

Death to the northern lights....I want cold and snow! 

[snow_wizard]

Impressive cold trough in late September 1933 as well.

 

With a burgeoning La Nina and tanking PDO. And historic cold the preceding February.

 

This is totally our year, guys!

 

I have been looking at 1933 for a while now, but that year was obviously a fluke as it was warmest La Nina winter ever.  It goes to show anything can happen, but the preponderance of the evidence says we get hit good this winter.

[Deweydog]

It’s a lock!

[wx_statman]

Already in the single digits this evening in parts of Montana. 1 degree currently at Lima Reservoir and other spots in the 5 - 7 degree F range. 

[Guest CulverJosh]

Cold air spilling east of the Rockies is a PNW norm.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

2008-09.

 

1995-96.

 

1985-86.

All those winters had a little piece of everything. I'll take a blend of all 3.

[snow_wizard]

Cold air spilling east of the Rockies is a PNW norm.

 

It's not like we didn't get any though.

[Blizzard777]

The heater is down...time to make a run for 32* 

Currently 47* 

[Guest CulverJosh]

It's not like we didn't get any though.

Hey, I am happy to be the next best thing. East of the Cascades .

[snow_wizard]

The NWS issued a freeze warning for SW WA.  Very rare to see that.  Another interesting tidbit on their website mentions this is the first year SEA had a low below 40 in the first ten days of October since 1990.  Nearly every year being thrown around was a season that featured big league cold.

[snow_wizard]

The heater is down...time to make a run for 32* 

Currently 47* 

 

You mean your heater doesn't work at all?

[snow_wizard]

Hey, I am happy to be the next best thing. East of the Cascades .

 

I hear you but it's still an impressive cold airmass for everywhere.