October 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[MossMan]

The BOZ! fantastic Seahawks player!

[Phil]

Question for Phil. If this is a top 3 +IOD what are the other two years? It appears it might be good for us.

They’re all close. The other big dogs are 1972/73, 1994/95, 1997/98, and 2006/07.

 

Which were all niños, or evolved that way. Probably a safe bet that 2019/20 will do likewise, at this point.

[MossMan]

Amazing sunset tonight getting some cold rain currently 45 degrees.

You are going to get in trouble for parking there.

[TacomaWaWx]

They’re all close. The other big dogs are 1972/73, 1994/95, 1997/98, and 2006/07.

06-07 was a pretty interesting one here. Snow in late November on 11/28, high temp of 69 on 12/5 and the hanukkah storm on 12/14. Had snow and cold for a week in mid January as well.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Nelsen is great. Been a little while since he was completely and utterly wrong (January 11, 2017 was the last big one, but everyone was wrong then). Not to say that he's perfect, but he's my favorite met.

 

There was one year he confidently stuck a fork in winter in early February, only to be rewarded with a late February arctic blast.

[Phil]

CPC usually has an El Niño fetish, but for some reason they’re reluctant to pull the trigger this time. Strange.

[GHweatherChris]

Neutral, weak nina.

 

11/20.

[Blizzard777]

My Station ID is KWARIDGE52

[Jesse]

If the pattern repeats itself later this winter we all be in the sweet spot to score.

 

It just feels like it’s too early and shooting it’s waad.

 

What does Bastardi say?

 

I don't think Bastardi has predicted a cold western winter in his entire career. FWIW.

[Jesse]

Thats what I have been calling for all along, just one solid torch where we can enjoy Christmas in our shorts. I know you and I, along with most people in the area would be perfectly happy with mild temps, maybe some occasional rain, and just a pleasant Redding like winter once this last bout of cold is past us.

 

Most normal people would agree that this sounds delightful. Just want you to know that.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Some rain and some hail or ice pellets. Gross day. Sun just to the north though.

You have become someone who only like sunny days and not a good weather day. You had mentioned that is was strange to enjoy a cold and uncomfortable day. How is a scalding hot 90 degree day not uncomfortable in some way? Oh Tim...

[umadbro]

 

 

My Station ID is KWARIDGE52

Weird. I don't know why I can't find it.

 

Thanks!

[TigerWoodsLibido]

EUG spiked to 63F at 1PM but is now down to 52F. Wind still out of the west.

[Jesse]

Weird. I don't know why I can't find it.

 

Thanks!

Maybe if you are logged into wunderground in you can’t search for your own for some reason.

 

Cool that you set up a station though. Been on my list for awhile.

[umadbro]

Maybe if you are logged into wunderground in you can’t search for your own for some reason.

 

Cool that you set up a station though. Been on my list for awhile.

I can pull it up with my profile. I searched while logged in and logged out. No luck. We'll see what happens tomorrow.

[Phil]

Neutral, weak nina.

 

11/20.

Lol, no way in hell.

[Omegaraptor]

Thats what I have been calling for all along, just one solid torch where we can enjoy Christmas in our shorts. I know you and I, along with most people in the area would be perfectly happy with mild temps, maybe some occasional rain, and just a pleasant Redding like winter once this last bout of cold is past us.

 

Redding averages more rain than Portland and Seattle in winter, FWIW.

 

Also, pretty sure Mount Shasta Ski Bowl holds the WR for most snow in a single storm. 

[TT-SEA]

You have become someone who only like sunny days and not a good weather day. You had mentioned that is was strange to enjoy a cold and uncomfortable day. How is a scalding hot 90 degree day not uncomfortable in some way? Oh Tim...

FWIW... I don't really like to be hot or cold.   And the older I get... the less I like either extreme.   I prefer something in the middle.

 

I don't get too excited about hot or cold weather.    Those are just things that happen.    But since moving here... I definitely get edgy when its cloudier and darker than normal.   Normal is cloudy and dark enough.

 

But I know people have different opinions and that is cool too.

[Front Ranger]

They’re all close. The other big dogs are 1972/73, 1994/95, 1997/98, and 2006/07.

 

Which were all niños, or evolved that way. Probably a safe bet that 2019/20 will do likewise, at this point.

All of those years had much warmer ONI at this point, and had been on an upwards trajectory to now. Significantly different than 2019. Tough to ignore that.

[MossMan]

Raging Nino coming to a yard near you!

[Front Ranger]

CPC usually has an El Niño fetish, but for some reason they’re reluctant to pull the trigger this time. Strange.

 

Because most signs point to this being a neutral winter. 2014 is about the only year you'll find that had similar ONI to where we're at now and developed into a Nino later. And it was pretty weak.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Most normal people would agree that this sounds delightful. Just want you to know that.

 

Why be normal?

[TT-SEA]

Why be normal?

 

I am the odd man out on here in terms of cold weather.  I go against the establishment.    

[Jesse]

Why be normal?

Because otherwise the neighbors might start to talk...

[GHweatherChris]

Lol, no way in hell.

There are many ways in hell.

[TT-SEA]

 

 

My Station ID is KWARIDGE52

Great station name!

 

"marinersblow"

 

And accurate.

 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Fraser outflow is here. Dew point is 28˚F and falling.

[Front Ranger]

There are many ways in hell.

I hear it's a dry heat, though.

[umadbro]

Great station name!

 

"marinersblow"

 

And accurate.

 

Had season tickets growing up from 1990 to 1999. I'm a baseball first fan. The mariners flat out blow. It's literally my username for almost everything since the late 2000's. I don't see that changing for another decade or so.

[Requiem]

00Z shifted most heavy rain south into Northern California, so obviously the coming pattern is very dynamic as to whether our region gets some heavy rain.

[Omegaraptor]

00Z shifted most heavy rain south into Northern California

Let’s hope this doesn’t end up being the prevailing precipitation pattern again this winter.

[Requiem]

Let’s hope this doesn’t end up being the prevailing precipitation pattern again this winter.

 

Well, California-centered precipitation worked out well for us in January and February 2017. But I'm sure we'll see our fair share of stormy weather.

[Deweydog]

00Z shifted most heavy rain south into Northern California, so obviously the coming pattern is very dynamic as to whether our region gets some heavy rain.

For tomorrow?

[GHweatherChris]

I hear it's a dry heat, though.

I bet it is more moist than what would be expected.

[Jesse]

Already down to 42 degrees here. Could hit 30s by midnight.

 

Had a high of 59 today, right after midnight last night. Afternoon high was just 55.

[MossMan]

Currently 37...Still waiting for the flash freeze.

[Phil]

All of those years had much warmer ONI at this point, and had been on an upwards trajectory to now. Significantly different than 2019. Tough to ignore that.

Which is indicative of the niño-esque tropical circulation that has established, regardless of the ONI. Indo-Pacific subsidence associated with the +IOD is constructive to +ENSO.

 

Also, Niño-4 has been in El Niño territory for awhile now, and there’s a coherent downwelling OKW propagating eastward under a continued weak trade wind regime.

 

Given this, there is essentially zero scientific basis to project a cool ENSO base this winter. It is simply not going to happen.

[Phil]

 

Because most signs point to this being a neutral winter. 2014 is about the only year you'll find that had similar ONI to where we're at now and developed into a Nino later. And it was pretty weak.

There’s more to ENSO than SSTs and the ONI.

 

Educate yourself.

[Front Ranger]

There’s more to ENSO than SSTs and the ONI.

 

Educate yourself.

I know. Maybe you should educate the CPC?

[GHweatherChris]

Currently 37...Still waiting for the flash freeze.

We have icy vehicle roof's currently.