October 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Which may offer predictability re: the Dec/Jan AO state.

 

 

And if there’s going to be a SSW/PV weakening event, it’s more likely to occur in February:

 

Wish if there was going to be another SSW event that it would occur earlier into the winter.

[Front Ranger]

1995/96 has its problems too (niña/volcanic strat). It’s unfortunate that there aren’t many +ENSO years with similar QBO structures (beginning of easterly shear with westerlies @ 50mb) since that’s probably where this winter will be leaning.

 

2002/03 was during solar max and was not modoki/+PMM..and 2004 isn’t a sure teleconnective bet either. Best thing to do I suppose is eliminate bad analogs like 1999/00 and work within the constraints of current boundary conditions as much as possible.

 

I'd favor 1995-96 over 2002-03, given the opposite solar and fact that 02-03 was a moderate Nino, while 1995-96 was at least weak ENSO.

 

I would even favor 2009-10 over 2002-03.

 

But overall, 1977-78, 1978-79, 1985-86, and 1995-96 are the analogs I'd lean into most.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

What are the best analogs right now?

Just saw this from Ben Noll and the analogs he's currently looking at for November.

 

 

https://mobile.twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1181699923546230785

[Omegaraptor]

I'd favor 1995-96 over 2002-03, given the opposite solar and fact that 02-03 was a moderate Nino, while 1995-96 was at least weak ENSO.

 

I would even favor 2009-10 over 2002-03.

 

But overall, 1977-78, 1978-79, 1985-86, and 1995-96 are the analogs I'd lean into most.

I actually brought up 77-78 in the prediction thread. Looks like one of the most similar years in terms of ENSO, PDO, and solar.

[ShawniganLake]

High solar. No good.

Thank god. I was having a panic attack.

 

Though it was at least declining solar and solidly neutral winter. It’s going to be pretty much impossible to find an analog that checks all the boxes.

[Deweydog]

Low solar.

[ShawniganLake]

Just saw this from Ben Noll and the analogs he's currently looking at for November.

 

 

https://mobile.twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1181699923546230785

Noll the troll is back.

[Kayla]

Just saw this from Ben Noll and the analogs he's currently looking at for November.

 

https://mobile.twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1181699923546230785

 

Interesting that he listed last year as an analog... I've had the same thoughts about that one as a possible analog as well.

 

Similar to last year, I think we'll see plenty of surprises and it won't run the typical "script".

[MossMan]

Low solar.

No solar would be better.

[Front Ranger]

Thank god. I was having a panic attack.

 

Though it was at least declining solar and solidly neutral winter. It’s going to be pretty much impossible to find an analog that checks all the boxes.

Overall solar activity in 1960 was WAY higher, though. Really not comparable.

 

But I agree, you just have to look at which analogs check the most boxes, and decide which boxes are most important.

[ShawniganLake]

Overall solar activity in 1960 was WAY higher, though. Really not comparable.

 

But I agree, you just have to look at which analogs check the most boxes, and decide which boxes are most important.

I really don’t have much of a feeling about which way this winter is going to go. Good luck to those doing seasonal forecasts. Are we gonna do a seasonal forecast competition thread.

[Jesse]

I really don’t have much of a feeling about which way this winter is going to go. Good luck to those doing seasonal forecasts. Are we gonna do a seasonal forecast competition thread.

I’m going warm for summer 2020.

[Kayla]

12z Euro stays pretty chilly throughout and has a nice suppressed jet look to it in the long range.

[Deweydog]

Suppressed solar.

[ShawniganLake]

[Front Ranger]

I really don’t have much of a feeling about which way this winter is going to go. Good luck to those doing seasonal forecasts. Are we gonna do a seasonal forecast competition thread.

 

We should.

 

Aside from Phil going way too cool for June and Chris going way too warm for OLM throughout, the forum did pretty well overall for the summer one. Maybe the same will hold true for winter!

[Phil]

We should.

 

Aside from Phil going way too cool for June and Chris going way too warm for OLM throughout, the forum did pretty well overall for the summer one. Maybe the same will hold true for winter!

[Front Ranger]

 

Just giving you a hard time, my friend. Though you did go too cool in June. 

[Jesse]

[ShawniganLake]

We should.

 

Aside from Phil going way too cool for June and Chris going way too warm for OLM throughout, the forum did pretty well overall for the summer one. Maybe the same will hold true for winter!

I think we should do November to February though. November “could” be the big month this season.

[Front Ranger]

I think we should do November to February though. November “could” be the big month this season.

Agreed. Or even through March...5 month winter to match Phil's 5 month summer.

[Phil]

Just giving you a hard time, my friend. Though you did go too cool in June.

Can’t hit ‘em all.

[Front Ranger]

Good model consensus for a very wet period starting around day 8.

[Phil]

FWIW, the EPS has been trending poleward (and solitaire at the end) with the jet extension..the 12z run now has a dry anomaly for much of the region thru the next 15 days.

 

[Jesse]

Been a very Phil niño-esque autumn so far.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Torchingist fall ever.

[Jesse]

Torchingist fall ever.

 

That late September death ridge was pretty stout. Sort of stands out on its own amongst the generally ridgy and dry pattern we have seen.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

That late September death ridge was pretty stout. Sort of stands out on its own amongst the generally ridgy and dry pattern we have seen.

And here it comes. Will he take the bait?

[Jesse]

And here it comes. Will he take the bait?

 

Hoping Phil replies. His ridgy forecasts for this fall were pretty bullish. But he's usually pretty up front about that stuff so not a big deal.

 

How's the huge temp gradient between your and Jim's house looking today?

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Hoping Phil replies. His ridgy forecasts for this fall were pretty bullish. But he's usually pretty up front about that stuff so not a big deal.

 

How's the huge temp gradient between your and Jim's house looking today?

 

Was stronger a couple nights ago.  Once we got in and had the "Arctic" boundary drop over us, it evened out.

[Phil]

And here it comes. Will he take the bait?

Meh, that was a spectacular bust. Fair game.

 

Jesse knows I don’t bump-troll this stuff unless I’m sucker punched unfairly (hi Jared).

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Just now got to 50F at EUG.  Going to be tough to make it to the 60s today. Yet another negative departure.  Haven't had a positive one yet in Oct. 

[Jesse]

Was stronger a couple nights ago.  Once we got in and had the "Arctic" boundary drop over us, it evened out.

 

I still wonder if Jim got a freeze last night.

[Deweydog]

Nice day!

[Gradient Keeper]

Wow. 9-0 STL in the 1st INNING! I wonder if the next trough trends colder. Hmmm....

 

00z GFS in 6 hours 2 minutes

[Deweydog]

I think that this fall has cemented the fact that Phlatiron AND Fil are BOTH just awful long range forecasters. Bring back Stormchaser Chuck!!!

[High Desert Mat?]

Been a very Phil niño-esque autumn so far.

But aren’t El Niño’s suppose to be a little stormy at first and then go to a more benign pattern later in the winter?

[Jesse]

But aren’t El Niño’s suppose to be a little stormy at first and then go to a more benign pattern later in the winter?

There’s always exceptions, but typically El Niño years are warm and dry in September thru much of October. Followed by a switch to more active late October-early January before things die down again.

 

What I’m trying to say is we’re screwed.

[Guest CulverJosh]

There’s always exceptions, but typically El Niño years are warm and dry in September thru much of October. Followed by a switch to more active late October-early January before things die down again.

 

What I’m trying to say is we’re screwed.

You can't put an umbrella over every weather pattern. You guys do the same thing every October. Mother nature doesn't care.

[Jesse]

You can't put an umbrella over every weather pattern. You guys do the same thing every October. Mother nature doesn't care.

 

I literally started my post with the phrase "There are always exceptions"

 

There are certainly typical ways that El Nino and La Nina tend to behave, though. To ignore that would be kind of silly.