October 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[Phil]

Got the solar correlations done, but ESRL doesn’t let you cross-correlate two variables with a control in simultaneous fashion. Going to have to create a custom file.

[BLI snowman]

I personally care more about geomagnetic activity than sunspots/TSI. It can have a much more profound photochemical impact, and at crucial times (activity tends to peak at equinoxes).

 

Any good dataset you like to look at?

[Jesse]

Got the solar correlations done, but ESRL doesn’t let you cross-correlate two variables with a control in simultaneous fashion. Going to have to create a custom file.

 

Should be done around the same time you grade that forecast contest, right?

[Deweydog]

[ShawniganLake]

35 here. Victoria highlands are already sub freezing. Not bad. Will probably see a freeze here tonight.

[GHweatherChris]

I'm going to call for a massive ridge to build in for the month of November.

 

When the pattern flips, and it will, that's what we will get. Death ridge with fog and fake cold. For all of November and maybe December.

 

Winter is blowing it's load two months too early.

11/20.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

35 here. Victoria highlands are already sub freezing. Not bad. Will probably see a freeze here tonight.

 

Down 37˚F at KBLI. Expect to see a freeze here.

[MossMan]

11/20.

10/9.

[GHweatherChris]

Looks like someone is trying to convince others they are the only person right on a subject absolutely noone understands completely, or even close to understanding.

 

Shocker

[TacomaWaWx]

42 at my house, no wind tonight and the low last night was 40. Guessing 33-35 here tonight maybe it freezes but it’s really hard to do that this close to the water.

[GHweatherChris]

10/9.

Honestly this could be the best event until late March.

[Front Ranger]

OLM hit 26 this morning. Running 6 degrees colder than last night right now...

[SilverFallsAndrew]

GFS wants to bring heavy snow to pass elevations and above late next week!

[Deweydog]

OLM hit 26 this morning. Running 6 degrees colder than last night right now...

***TEENS***

[Front Ranger]

***TEENS***

If that's what you're into...

 

24 would be a new benchmark low.

[MossMan]

Honestly this could be the best event until late March.

Very possible. However I am prepping like crazy just on the off chance that we have a wild and Woolley winter. Chainsaw sharpened and tuned, generator ready to rock and roll, gas cans full, new tires on my truck, drainage project to be completed by the end of the weekend, blower ordered for fireplace, surplus of batteries/flashlights, emergency kits good to go, and hopefully ordering the plow and chains for my JD mower... I’m going to be ready!

 

So yeah almost a certainty we have a little drizzle and 50’s all winter with a peak wind of 25mph.

[GHweatherChris]

Very possible. However I am prepping like crazy just on the off chance that we have a wild and Woolley winter. Chainsaw sharpened and tuned, generator ready to rock and roll, gas cans full, new tires on my truck, drainage project to be completed by the end of the weekend, blower ordered for fireplace, surplus of batteries/flashlights, emergency kits good to go, and hopefully ordering the plow and chains for my JD mower... I’m going to be ready!

 

So yeah almost a certainty we have a little drizzle and 50’s all winter with a peak wind of 25mph.

All your fault... smh lol

[Jesse]

All your fault... smh lol

smlolz

[ShawniganLake]

Campbell River is BCs version of Olympia. Great radiational cooling spot but pretty unrepresentative of what the greater region experiences. They dropped to 25F this morning and are running 10F cooler than yesterday at this time.

[GHweatherChris]

smlolz

Why would you shake your lolz?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Probably going to bottom out earlier tonight.

[Deweydog]

PDO

[Jesse]

Why would you shake your lolz?

No one understands completely, or is even close to understanding.

[Front Ranger]

Campbell River is BCs version of Olympia. Great radiational cooling spot but pretty unrepresentative of what the greater region experiences. They dropped to 25F this morning and are running 10F cooler than yesterday at this time.

OLM is the extremely rare long term airport station that has not only stayed in the same spot but not been affected by UHI or spotty records.

 

It is a unicorn, and that is why I love it.

[GHweatherChris]

No one understands completely, or is even close to understanding.

Wise words.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

OLM is the extremely rare long term airport station that has not only stayed in the same spot but not been affected by UHI or spotty records.

 

It is a unicorn, and that is why I love it.

 

EUG is Oregon's version. But it only started there around 1940 or so.

[BLI snowman]

Probably a pretty dull pattern coming up. Splitty storms followed by flat ridging.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Probably a pretty dull pattern coming up. Splitty storms followed by flat ridging.

 

W r so screwed

[ShawniganLake]

OLM is the extremely rare long term airport station that has not only stayed in the same spot but not been affected by UHI or spotty records.

 

It is a unicorn, and that is why I love it.

How far back does olm go with records

[Front Ranger]

EUG is Oregon's version. But it only started there around 1940 or so.

Yeah, EUG is my second favorite PNW station. But it's a bit far south...the beauty of OLM is that its location between Seattle and Portland tends to best capture regional events.

[Jesse]

I always sort of wondered how this forum would react to a promising, 1985ish pre-season with a couple historic cold snaps by mid-October.

 

I got my answer. A whole lotta anxiety!

[Front Ranger]

Probably a pretty dull pattern coming up. Splitty storms followed by flat ridging.

Saving up the next load!!

[BLI snowman]

Saving up the next load!!

 

Hopefully it waits until after 11/15. Early November cold spells suck.

[ShawniganLake]

Torchy November’s lead to great things.

[MossMan]

SFH.

[Jesse]

Torchy November’s lead to great things.

You forgot to forget punctuation

[Deweydog]

I always sort of wondered how this forum would react to a promising, 1985ish pre-season with a couple historic cold snaps by mid-October.

 

I got my answer. A whole lotta anxiety!

Pre-winter anxiety on a weather forum?

 

What’s next, children wearing shirts????????

[Omegaraptor]

2007-08 had a pretty chilly SON, too. I think that was one of the coldest falls this century so far for the region.

To be fair, 2000 and 2007 are pretty much the only two cold falls of this century.

 

2019 could become #3 if this cold pattern continues... but as you said, it’s still too early to tell.

[ShawniganLake]

You forgot to forget punctuation

Sorry. It was an accident. I fully admit to lacking punctuation skills.

[MossMan]

Down to 34.