October 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[snow_wizard]

What a gorgeous trough!  Man that thing looks cold.

 

https://a.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/wxloop.cgi?ir4km+12

[TacomaWaWx]

Rain band is holding together still and moving south fast. Currently 46 a chilly evening.

[HighlandExperience]

What a gorgeous trough! Man that thing looks cold.

 

https://a.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/wxloop.cgi?ir4km+12

This early cold is exciting. Hope it translate into thanksgiving snow!

[TT-SEA]

Rain band is holding together still and moving south fast. Currently 46 a chilly evening.

Not a c-zone... so it should hold together. Often times you see precip increase when it gets to the south Sound with northerly flow like this.

[MossMan]

Chilly. Dark. Dank. My moss has enjoyed the nearly 7” of rain over the last month!

[Frontal Snowsquall]

If the pattern repeats itself later this winter we all be in the sweet spot to score.

 

It just feels like it’s too early and shooting it’s waad.

 

What does Bastardi say?

He has an East bias but here's his preliminary winter forecast.

 

"The conditions in the oceans around the U.S. are ripe for major arctic outbreaks, but the early season, as has been the habit of late, is likely to start warm in the East. The worst-case scenario is a brutally cold old-fashioned winter. Precipitation should be plentiful again in the East given, the natural fight between the cold air to the west and the warm oceans to the east.

 

The West looks warm, though the Euro would argue that the Pioneer is onto something, sticking more cold into the southern Rockies. Buckle up, there is going to be plenty of cold around with January-March being colder against the normals in the East than December-February. If you start late with the winter, you are liable to end late."

 

https://www.weatherbell.com/preliminary-2019-2020-winter-forecast

[TT-SEA]

He has an East bias but here's his preliminary winter forecast.

 

"The conditions in the oceans around the U.S. are ripe for major arctic outbreaks, but the early season, as has been the habit of late, is likely to start warm in the East. The worst-case scenario is a brutally cold old-fashioned winter. Precipitation should be plentiful again in the East given, the natural fight between the cold air to the west and the warm oceans to the east.

 

The West looks warm, though the Euro would argue that the Pioneer is onto something, sticking more cold into the southern Rockies. Buckle up, there is going to be plenty of cold around with January-March being colder against the normals in the East than December-February. If you start late with the winter, you are liable to end late."

 

https://www.weatherbell.com/preliminary-2019-2020-winter-forecast

I am sure that will be anxiously attacked by some on here... but it would be sort of humorous if nature is not following any analog (throw out all the rules!) and we get stuck in a warm pattern from November-January while the Midwest and NE are snowy and brutally cold.

[MossMan]

Hopefully it will be 47 and drizzle here for mid February when I will be in Mexico. Let’s front load this winter!

[Omegaraptor]

He has an East bias but here's his preliminary winter forecast.

 

"The conditions in the oceans around the U.S. are ripe for major arctic outbreaks, but the early season, as has been the habit of late, is likely to start warm in the East. The worst-case scenario is a brutally cold old-fashioned winter. Precipitation should be plentiful again in the East given, the natural fight between the cold air to the west and the warm oceans to the east.

 

The West looks warm, though the Euro would argue that the Pioneer is onto something, sticking more cold into the southern Rockies. Buckle up, there is going to be plenty of cold around with January-March being colder against the normals in the East than December-February. If you start late with the winter, you are liable to end late."

 

https://www.weatherbell.com/preliminary-2019-2020-winter-forecast

 

 

FWIW, this was the Weatherbell prediction for 16-17:

 

http://www.weatherbell.com/images/imguploader/images/December_February_2016_17_update.png

 

http://www.weatherbell.com/images/imguploader/images/Winter_2016_2017_Snowfall_1_.jpg

 

The preliminary 2019-20 forecast also predicted that the Blob would stay strong throughout winter... surprise surprise, it's dying right now.

[TT-SEA]

Hopefully it will be 47 and drizzle here for mid February when I will be in Mexico. Let’s front load this winter!

I agree with front loading... that would be nice.

[The Swamp]

THIS early is historically VERY good.  1949 and 1985 are a couple of examples.

 

The problem I have is I like Joe Bastardi and time and time again he says where the trough is this time of year will be replaced with a ridge.  Like a flip flop.  That would put the trough in the east and a warm death ridge out west.  There is probably a lot more technical crap going on behind the scenes though.

 

I guess we'll see what happens.

 

I don't get too high or too low based on a couple of weeks of "snappieness".

[TT-SEA]

The problem I have is I like Joe Bastardi and time and time again he says where the trough is this time of year will be replaced with a ridge. Like a flip flop. That would put the trough in the east and a warm death ridge out west. There is probably a lot more technical crap going on behind the scenes though.

 

I guess we'll see what happens.

 

I don't get too high or too low based on a couple of weeks of "snappieness".

I am just going to enjoy the show... either outside or on here!

 

I love cold and snow in November and December... so I hope the predictions are right. And I am fine with not having cold and snow. And I really don't care if it gets ridiculously wet because we have several trips planned and I know I won't have to deal with it for very long in one stretch.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

FWIW, this was the Weatherbell prediction for 16-17:

 

http://www.weatherbell.com/images/imguploader/images/December_February_2016_17_update.png

 

http://www.weatherbell.com/images/imguploader/images/Winter_2016_2017_Snowfall_1_.jpg

 

The preliminary 2019-20 forecast also predicted that the Blob would stay strong throughout winter... surprise surprise, it's dying right now.

Yeah, almost the exact opposite happened.

 

[BLI snowman]

Joe Bastardi's grandfather went warm West/cold East for the 1889-90 winter.

[Front Ranger]

Once a weenie, always a weenie*.

 

*not political/social commentary

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Likely the Abbotsford radar in BC

 

Aldergrove.

[Blizzard777]

What timing for the front to show up! Sun undercutting it with illumination.  Intense orange 

48*

[snow_wizard]

Looking at my recording thermometer I came to realize it dropped to 40 here during the period of rain and hail that moved through in the mid afternoon.  That has to be some kind of an all time record for this early in the season!  So far my numbers for today are 52-40.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Daytime high of 51˚F at KBLI today. High for the day was 53˚F at midnight. It's looked impressively dark and stormy to the north for several hours, but so far no more than a few raindrops here.

[snow_wizard]

This early cold is exciting. Hope it translate into thanksgiving snow!

 

You never know.  1949 had a huge torch in November after the very cold October.  After that December was decent and January was epic.

[snow_wizard]

FWIW, this was the Weatherbell prediction for 16-17:

 

 

 

The preliminary 2019-20 forecast also predicted that the Blob would stay strong throughout winter... surprise surprise, it's dying right now.

 

 

They blew last winter also.

[TacomaWaWx]

Amazing sunset tonight getting some cold rain currently 45 degrees.

[Guest CulverJosh]

There is a reason that Mr. Nelsen doesnt do long range forecasts. He wants to be credible.

[North_County]

Mammatus straddling the border within the last 20 minutes. Pretty cool. I've never actually seen it before. At least not that pronounced, anyway.

[Requiem]

There is a reason that Mr. Nelsen doesnt do long range forecasts. He wants to be credible.

 

Nelsen is great. Been a little while since he was completely and utterly wrong (January 11, 2017 was the last big one, but everyone was wrong then). Not to say that he's perfect, but he's my favorite met.

[Blizzard777]

Amazing sunset tonight getting some cold rain currently 45 degrees.

I knew it, theirs a dome over Federal Way

 

really was a beautiful sunset in the South sound with that front.  

Precipitation sucked 

[TacomaWaWx]

I knew it, theirs a dome over Federal Way

 

really was a beautiful sunset in the South sound with that front.  

Precipitation sucked

 

ended up with 0.05” here 0.07” for the day. Should be a cold morning tomorrow, already 44 here.

[Guest CulverJosh]

Nelsen is great. Been a little while since he was completely and utterly wrong (January 11, 2017 was the last big one, but everyone was wrong then). Not to say that he's perfect, but he's my favorite met.

Glad you see that. You werent alive when he was starting out. You never saw the Boz.

[TacomaWaWx]

Looks like another band of heavy precipitation is moving south around the San Juan’s, kind of doubtful it’ll hold together.

[Requiem]

Glad you see that. You werent alive when he was starting out. You never saw the Boz.

 

I regret to say that I haven't-- I've heard only legendary things about Jim Bosley.

[Phil]

Very gross day here... cold and wet and raw and dark.

 

My definition of gross.

Better than a death ridge.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Glad you see that. You werent alive when he was starting out. You never saw the Boz.

The Boz was my favorite in the 90s. His forecasts for the 92-93 Willamette Valley specials were wonderful. Wish someone had tapes of them.

[MossMan]

39 degrees currently and .17” in the rain gauge so far today.

[Blizzard777]

ended up with 0.05” here 0.07” for the day. Should be a cold morning tomorrow, already 44 here.

.03 here for the day

Everything just kind of fizzled over me,  It was great seeing the fun activity around the area with hail and snow though.  Good things are happening 

 

 

[Phil]

If the pattern repeats itself later this winter we all be in the sweet spot to score.

 

It just feels like it’s too early and shooting it’s waad.

 

What does Bastardi say?

Would need a different tropical forcing structure to achieve this pattern in the midwinter period. The wavenumber is still much higher now than it will be at any time during the winter.

[Guest CulverJosh]

Temp has gone from 58 to 44 in 2 hours here in Culver with solid cloud cover and no precip. Not bad for early Oct.

[TacomaWaWx]

.03 here for the day

Everything just kind of fizzled over me, It was great seeing the fun activity around the area with hail and snow though. Good things are happening

 

 

Weather has been pretty interesting since late August it seems. However today getting accumulating snow down to 1000’ in some places west of the cascades is nuts. Getting the feeling it’s going to be a really active season coming up.

[Blizzard777]

Glad you see that. You werent alive when he was starting out. You never saw the Boz.

lol, I was on his show a long long time ago (AM/NW). It was a regular guy contest.  I was a final contestant. 

He was a tall fella full of mass! 

[umadbro]

Question for all you folks who have their weather station up on Wunderground. I went live around 3pm today with my new one. But I still can't find it when I search for my station. Is that normal?

[umadbro]

My Station ID is KWARIDGE52