October 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[TacomaWaWx]

Yeah... hopefully the weather effects Lamar as well.

Doesn’t look like anything more than drizzle to light rain especially in the central sound. Still feeling confident we will win this one, ravens D isn’t the same even with the addition of Earl Thomas.

[Anti Marine Layer]

Yeah... hopefully the weather effects Lamar as well.

 

Not Lamar Odom.

[stuffradio]

2 months and 5 days until Christmas, although it started 2 days ago on Hallmark Movies and Mysteries.

 

Probably feels like Christmas though in the PNW with the cool weather. Not exactly the same case here, as it should be mid 80s today and low 90s tomorrow. However, even that is not unusual in December here at times. Also nights are getting pretty long with chilly mornings to start the day before the afternoon heat.

Roughly 4 months and 13 days until my first is born!

[El_Nina]

The regionwide drought was definitely focused to the south and east of western WA.    The drought happened... and it was much worse down in Oregon.    You just want to paint with a broad brush.   Nobody is denying the drought happened.

 

Where did I say it was not dry or hot enough for me?     2017 and 2018 were WAY too hot and dry for me.    We had 6 inches of rain here in August 2015... so that took the edge off that summer.

 

2012 was probably my favorite July - September period in the last decade.

And during that dry spell I remember you pulling out all these maps that included the oddly wet winter months of 20-14-15 to show how wet we were during those scorching summer months. Your thing was to take the entire years total instead of breaking it up into smaller pieces to see when it was really drier than normal.

The reason I've taken this up with you is because of your belief that us cold weather freaks hate perfect sunny 67 degree afternoons. We don't, we'd just really hate to see that happen in a time of year it shouldn't and will hurt our snowpack, ecosystem etc.

[TT-SEA]

And during that dry spell I remember you pulling out all these maps that included the oddly wet winter months of 20-14-15 to show how wet we were during those scorching summer months. Your thing was to take the entire years total instead of breaking it up into smaller pieces to see when it was really drier than normal.

The reason I've taken this up with you is because of your belief that us cold weather freaks hate perfect sunny 67 degree afternoons. We don't, we'd just really hate to see that happen in a time of year it shouldn't and will hurt our snowpack, ecosystem etc.

 

There are different ways to view data.    Both can be true... and I was presenting another view. 

 

I did not say all of you hate that weather.    Far from it.   You are somehow assuming you are lumped in and you are taking offense.  Andrew specifically seems to only be happy when its raining and cold.    Even Jesse distanced himself when Andrew was saying that summer is worthless and wanting to skip past fall and right to winter.    I have been noticing this specifically with Andrew.   So I was surprised when he was praising actual beautiful weather as being so pleasant.

[TT-SEA]

12z actually looks more impressive with that clipper next weekend now than any of the runs I’ve seen so far.

 

 

Definitely.   Its also wetter for Saturday.    <_>

 

I bet this is the start of a westward trend.

[Guest CulverJosh]

Doesn’t look like anything more than drizzle to light rain especially in the central sound. Still feeling confident we will win this one, ravens D isn’t the same even with the addition of Earl Thomas.

Looks more impressive than that on radar and not seeing much shadowing evident. Im thinking wetter than progged.

[El_Nina]

I am just saying that seeing Andrew praise beautiful weather as being so enjoyable is about as strange as it would be to see me go on vacation somewhere and praise constant, heavy rain as being so wonderful.      Its just inconsistent... that is all.   

This is so much like the jabs you've taken at me for calling an April afternoon "soupy." I'm noticing a pattern.

[Jesse]

12z looking much better on the clipper front. Even the Tuesday deal has a little more oomph to it.

[TT-SEA]

Looks more impressive than that on radar and not seeing much shadowing evident. Im thinking wetter than progged.

 

 

No shadowing at all today... but it is very light.   Even out here.

[TacomaWaWx]

Definitely. Its also wetter for Saturday. <_>

 

I bet this is the start of a westward trend.

it looks really nice to finish out the month. Should be some beautiful cool weather come Halloween time.

[Guest CulverJosh]

No shadowing at all today... but it is very light. Even out here.

Right on. We all know the precip will hold on longer than satellite shows though ie; pscz

[TT-SEA]

This is so much like the jabs you've taken at me for calling an April afternoon "soupy." I'm noticing a pattern.

 

No... that was just a silly comment you made that I ribbed you about.  

 

Can you imagine me going on vacation and praising heavy rain every day as being wonderful?     It would be ironic right?    That is what I said about Andrew's report from Arkansas.  

[Jesse]

Heading out to the Hood River Fruit Loop today. Should be pretty perfect weather for it.

[Jesse]

2 months and 5 days until Christmas, although it started 2 days ago on Hallmark Movies and Mysteries.

 

Probably feels like Christmas though in the PNW with the cool weather. Not exactly the same case here, as it should be mid 80s today and low 90s tomorrow. However, even that is not unusual in December here at times. Also nights are getting pretty long with chilly mornings to start the day before the afternoon heat.

 

It feels like October. This would be pretty balmy weather for Christmas.

[Anti Marine Layer]

Heading out to the Hood River Fruit Loop today. Should be pretty perfect weather for it.

Some people think a rainy day here is perfect Disneyland weather.

[Jesse]

Some people think a rainy day here is perfect Disneyland weather.

 

It will probably be cool and mostly dry out there.

[Anti Marine Layer]

It will probably be cool and mostly dry out there.

Is it east of the Cascades?

[GHweatherChris]

Moderate rain here, definitely not drizzle.

[ShawniganLake]

Drizzly morning. It’s been raining since 4am with just 0.05” in the bucket

[TT-SEA]

Some people think a rainy day here is perfect Disneyland weather.

 

 

Definitely helps with the lines which are normally insane... and many of the rides are indoors anyways.    Crappy weather is ideal for maximizing the number of rides you can get on during a day at Disney.

[Jesse]

Is it east of the Cascades?

Just a little bit east of the crest. Hood River Valley is an in between zone with both wet side and dry side characteristics. Sort of a unique climate thanks to the Columbia Gorge.

[TacomaWaWx]

Really will finish off what has been an interesting October if this clipper verifies. This fall has definitely been very interesting, lots of thunderstorms, cold weather, heavy rain and mountain snow since that big storm September 7th. Hopefully we can continue to get more interesting weather headed into the second half of fall and winter.

[High Desert Mat?]

A low overcast here temp is 38 and feels like late October. Just a matter of time before the freezing fog hits.

[Guest CulverJosh]

A low overcast here temp is 38 and feels like late October. Just a matter of time before the freezing fog hits.

Good pattern for it in the long range.

[Jesse]

If that clipper verifies we will be looking at a COLD month.

 

Even this milder wet period hasn't been all that warm. 56/47 here yesterday. Then dropped to 44 overnight with clear skies at points, now overcast and just 48 with a cool east wind. Today should be solidly cool. Probably the first sub-55 high of the month for lots of spots down here.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

EUG running a -3.9F departure on the month but 4 straight + days.  Might push us into normal territory if it keeps up.

[Jesse]

EUG running a -3.9F departure on the month but 4 straight + days. Might push us into normal territory if it keeps up.

 

Not likely. Yesterday was perfectly average. The three days before that were +1, +1 and +2. Would take some bigger positive departures than that to overcome the negative departure mtd.

 

If the clipper pattern late next week comes anywhere close to verifying a significantly colder than normal month is pretty much a lock.

[TT-SEA]

EUG running a -3.9F departure on the month but 4 straight + days. Might push us into normal territory if it keeps up.

Its a lock to be colder than normal at this point.

[Phil]

70 years of ENSO data is practically nothing in the grand scheme of things, it would take several hundred years of data in a quasi-stable base state climate for actual ENSO signals to possess greater amplitude than internal, event-event variability. The modern record (post 1950) only represents a small fraction of the potential, legitimate interannual ENSO variability & corresponding ENSO extremes that are legitimately probable in our current climate.

You made a great call last year, btw. Kudos.

[Phil]

This thread is lol worthy with the amount of posts about how cold or not cold it’s going to get in late October. Keep it up guys!

Why do you even post here?

[snow_wizard]

12z actually looks more impressive with that clipper next weekend now than any of the runs I’ve seen so far.

 

No doubt the block is shifted westward and thicknesses over the Seattle area end up lower than previous runs.  It doesn't have the oomph of some earlier runs, but the other details look better.  Still looking like an extremely favorable surface pressure gradient angle for the Central Puget Sound to overperform in the cold department.  The massive piece of surface high to our NW deadens the easterly gradient which is great for us.

[snow_wizard]

Not likely. Yesterday was perfectly average. The three days before that were +1, +1 and +2. Would take some bigger positive departures than that to overcome that negative departure mtd.

 

If the clipper pattern late next week comes anywhere close to verifying a significantly colder than normal month is pretty much a lock.

 

Interestingly you guys kicked our butts for cold the first week of the month, but with this pattern we are coming in a lot cooler than down there.  This weekend has been solidly chilly IMBY.  It always evens out it seems.

 

You are correct there is pretty much zero chance anywhere in the NW will end up normal or above for the month.

[Jesse]

Interestingly you guys kicked our butts for cold the first week of the month, but with this pattern we are coming in a lot cooler than down there. This weekend has been solidly chilly IMBY. It always evens out it seems.

 

You are correct there is pretty much zero chance anywhere in the NW will end up normal or above for the month.

Eugene is pretty far away from me. Almost as far as I am from you!

 

Today has been solidly chilly here as well. High of just 49 so far.

[Jesse]

12z GFS ensembles are the best yet for the cold clipper. Keep us in a coolish pattern for longer too.

[snow_wizard]

Really will finish off what has been an interesting October if this clipper verifies. This fall has definitely been very interesting, lots of thunderstorms, cold weather, heavy rain and mountain snow since that big storm September 7th. Hopefully we can continue to get more interesting weather headed into the second half of fall and winter.

 

Indeed.  There has been a lot to cheer about this month.  Two major snow events in the mountains already under our belts besides.

 

I ended up with a low of 41 last night after a 50 - 42 day yesterday.  Currently only 45.

[ShawniganLake]

[Jesse]

[snow_wizard]

12z GFS ensembles are the best yet for the cold clipper. Keep us in a coolish pattern for longer too.

 

I was going to comment the 12z GFS shows great promise in the longer range now.  The mechanism throwing up these blocks keeps going on this run.  As far as this weeks clipper....the normal model trend lately has been to actually make these things better as the time frame narrows.

[Jesse]