October 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[Deweydog]

Yeah that is ridiculous. GFS keeps spitting it out...

[Gradient Keeper]

Not there yet, but moving that way as the GIF shows.

[MossMan]

I know I closely followed the 2006 event from afar. I don't remember if that was mostly on Mark's blog or on here, I remember lurking on this forum when I was living in Oklahoma, but it could have been later.

Top event of my lifetime. I can still hear the nearly constant cracking and snapping of tree branches under the weight of the massive snow as we worked to make sure the residents stayed safe at the senior community I worked at. Taking the tractor to the fire department and loading up a barrel of diesel fuel that they had on hand for emergencies and driving it back and filling the tank so the massive generator kept power to the nursing home part of the facility since the fuel trucks couldn’t make it. We were pretty much isolated in our area and powerless. Snowmobiles, quads, and tractors out numbered vehicles on the roads. Trees and power lines littering the roads. No power for about a week, thank god for the wood burning stove at my dads house!

[Deweydog]

I remember having a brief non-sticking snow shower during that event.

 

#weredue

[MossMan]

I remember having a brief non-sticking snow shower during that event.

 

#weredue

I was in Olympia during the start of the epicness. It was in the upper 40’s that afternoon when I started heading north. My dad called and warned me what was taking place, they were already without power with a foot of snow with the snow continuing to come down hard. Was hard to believe as I saw my truck temp at 47 degrees...but that number dropped as I headed north. Mixed rain and snow as I hit Northgate. Straight snow as I hit Everett but not sticking to the roads. A little slush in Marysville...then BAM a whiteout and deep snow covered roads. 2 of the 3 routes home were blocked, the last option worked but I was driving over downed Alders and drooping power lines. That 1999 Chevy Tahoe I had was a beast! Good stuff!

[ShawniganLake]

I was in Olympia during the start of the epicness. It was in the upper 40’s that afternoon when I started heading north. My dad called and warned me what was taking place, they were already without power with a foot of snow with the snow continuing to come down hard. Was hard to believe as I saw my truck temp at 47 degrees...but that number dropped as I headed north. Mixed rain and snow as I hit Northgate. Straight snow as I hit Everett but not sticking to the roads. A little slush in Marysville...then BAM a whiteout and deep snow covered roads. 2 of the 3 routes home were blocked, the last option worked but I was driving over downed Alders and drooping power lines. That 1999 Chevy Tahoe I had was a beast! Good stuff!

I drove from Seattle to Shawnigan Lake that day. Left Seattle in the rain around 1030am IIRC. It was something like 1am by the time we got back to Shawnigan. The ferry crossing was extremely rough and slow that night, (Tsawwassen to Duke point) heading into about a 50mph north wind. Probably the greatest November snowstorm in history here. I missed most of it, but awoke the next morning to about 27” on the ground.

[TT-SEA]

Nice weekend coming up according to the 00z!

1 or 2?

[Deweydog]

1 or 2?

Weird question but if you must know I did both today.

[BLI snowman]

00z GFS today compared to yesterday. Just a few hundred more miles to go and that crazy ensemble run will be right!

 

 

 

[Deweydog]

I was in Olympia during the start of the epicness. It was in the upper 40’s that afternoon when I started heading north. My dad called and warned me what was taking place, they were already without power with a foot of snow with the snow continuing to come down hard. Was hard to believe as I saw my truck temp at 47 degrees...but that number dropped as I headed north. Mixed rain and snow as I hit Northgate. Straight snow as I hit Everett but not sticking to the roads. A little slush in Marysville...then BAM a whiteout and deep snow covered roads. 2 of the 3 routes home were blocked, the last option worked but I was driving over downed Alders and drooping power lines. That 1999 Chevy Tahoe I had was a beast! Good stuff!

I had to drive to Olympia that Tuesday morning and it was kinda snowy. Luckily I had watched the news prior so I knew to reduce my speed and allow plenty of following distance.

[Anti Marine Layer]

Hard to be thinking of snow when it is 100 degrees here with humidity less than 5%.

[BLI snowman]

I remember having a brief non-sticking snow shower during that event.

 

#weredue

 

I remember flying back from Hawaii and there being a dusting on the ground on the evening of the 27th. Your location got owned!

[Deweydog]

Hard to be thinking of snow when it is 100 degrees here with humidity less than 5%.

Snow at 100 degrees rarely sticks so what’s the point?

[Deweydog]

I remember flying back from Hawaii and there being a dusting on the ground on the evening of the 27th. Your location got owned!

No wonder you were so bullish about 12-1-07...

[ShawniganLake]

Hard to be thinking of snow when it is 100 degrees here with humidity less than 5%.

Jeezus. Hope there’s no fire starts.

[jakeinthevalley]

Snow at 100 degrees rarely sticks so what’s the point?

If the sun angles are low enough???

[Deweydog]

If the sun angles are low enough???

They’ve never been lower from what I hear.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GEM says HELLO WINTER! WOW!

 

[MossMan]

00z GEM says HELLO WINTER! WOW!

 

I really need to sweet talk my wife over the snow plow I want...

[ShawniganLake]

[Gradient Keeper]

Model comparison - Centered at 11 PM Monday. We're real close to seeing things real cold REAL FAST! C'MON!!!!

 

12z GEM

 

 

00z GEM

[TT-SEA]

I really need to sweet talk my wife over the snow plow I want...

"Winter" lasts for about a day on the GEM and its sunny that day.

[BLI snowman]

No wonder you were so bullish about 12-1-07...

 

Early winter events rock.

[MossMan]

"Winter" lasts for about a day on the GEM and its sunny that day.

Shhh...Don’t tell my wife that!

[Gradient Keeper]

"Winter" lasts for about a day on the GEM and its sunny that day.

Not if the block holds more firm as the EURO/EPS suggests. Sunny, very cold, very windy. I don't care if it's for 1 day or 9, in October that would be historic.

 

00z ECMWF in 29 minutes

[Deweydog]

Early winter events rock.

Thanksgiving 2019 says hello.

[Deweydog]

I just told my entire family, dentist, calligraphy teacher and Zumba instructor about the major cold snap.

[TT-SEA]

Not if the block holds more firm as the EURO/EPS suggests. Sunny, very cold, very windy. I don't care if it's for 1 day or 9, in October that would be historic.

 

00z ECMWF in 29 minutes

12Z ECMWF showed highs mainly in the low to mid 50s next week in the Seattle area... normal high next week is around 55.

[snow_wizard]

Pretty interesting how the ensemble mean continues it's slow downward trend for much of the period.

[Jesse]

Pretty interesting how the ensemble mean continues it's slow downward trend for much of the period.

Yeah, pretty remarkable change on the GFS ensemble over the course of today.

[Gradient Keeper]

12Z ECMWF showed highs mainly in the low to mid 50s next week in the Seattle area... normal high next week is around 55.

Haha, no chance we will be anywhere close to that if the GEM/EURO verify. Big IF right now, but if this trend continues the next 1-2 days of runs, then we can get a little excited.

 

00z EPS in 2 hours 25 minutes

6z GFS in 3 hours 23 minutes

[snow_wizard]

Overall I'm pretty happy with the latest trends on this thing.  This GFS is clearly the coolest run in the past few days and shows the 534 thickness line going well SW of Seattle Friday night.  The WRF indicates cooler 925mb temps this weekend and early next week than previous runs and it continues the idea of a pretty fair inversion setting up.  The wrmest days are only shown being 52 to 56 for highs with some days 48 to 52 for afternoon temps.

 

The longer term continues to be full of potential.

 

Meanwhile...the sun has settled into an even quieter period over the past week than it had been as evidenced by tanked radio flux and tanked AP values.  There were some experts who thought the first major dip in activity earlier in the year would be the bottom, but after a brief spike of activity in May the bottom has dropped out.  This might beat last cycle's minimum.

[TT-SEA]

Haha, no chance we will be anywhere close to that if the GEM/EURO verify. Big IF right now, but if this trend continues the next 1-2 days of runs, then we can get a little excited.

 

00z EPS in 2 hours 25 minutes

6z GFS in 3 hours 23 minutes

I am confused. That was the Euro temps from the 12Z run. No chance to be anywhere close to low 50s?

[snow_wizard]

Haha, no chance we will be anywhere close to that if the GEM/EURO verify. Big IF right now, but if this trend continues the next 1-2 days of runs, then we can get a little excited.

 

00z EPS in 2 hours 25 minutes

6z GFS in 3 hours 23 minutes

 

Even if the days are seasonable the nights will be pretty cold with a couple having a shot at really cold for this time of year.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z ECMWF through Day 3 in lockstep with the absurdly cold GEM. So far.....

[Requiem]

Exciting trends, I hope. Though at this point in time I would be content with simply a cold east wind event of some kind.

[TT-SEA]

If you’re going to be that guy this season, then enjoy your 4 month mute.

Full on censorship? No dissension or discussion of model details allowed? Come on Fred.

[snow_wizard]

The 0z GEM looks exactly like the 12z ECMWF.  Really solid cold shot followed by a gorgeous reset to GOA ridge again.  Amazing how that northerly surface pressure gradient keeps recurring over and over again this season.

[Omegaraptor]

 

LMAO

[Requiem]

Looks like EURO is a tad bit west, actually. Nice that it is staying consistent!