October 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[Deweydog]

Nice weekend coming up?

[BLI snowman]

But we lost that one. #BadAnalog

 

This winter we will all lose.

[MossMan]

34.

[Deweydog]

34.

RIP Walter Payton.

[ShawniganLake]

Looking like this will end up 3rd coldest October on record at PDX. Surpassed only by 1946 and 1949.

 

JUST LIKE 2002!!!

2002 sucked.

 

I’m kinda feeling January this winter.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

-46 at Peter Sinks, UT (outside of sink locations, two unofficial stations in Randolph hit -23 and -22 which also exceed the state record for towns)

 

That is the coldest temperature recorded anywhere in the USA (including Alaska!) in the month of October.

[BLI snowman]

2002 sucked.

 

I’m kinda feeling January this winter.

 

 

Ironically the big 1/10-11/17 storm was the last time a flake of snow fell here in the month of January. Probably a safe bet that streak ends soon.

[Deweydog]

2002 sucked.

 

I’m kinda feeling January this winter.

MLK

[BLI snowman]

Trending east.

[Jesse]

2002 sucked.

I’m kinda feeling January this winter.

How will Shawnigan Lake’s rank end up in terms of cold October.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Not sure why the top one is sideways and the rest are good. Hmmm

 

Some photo viewers are "intelligent" and will automatically rotate the image if the EXIF tags indicate the camera was rotated. Some are not. The way I fix the issue is to pull the images into Gimp, then to export them as JPEG. If Gimp detects the EXIF tag and asks to rotate the image, answer NO, then rotate it manually before exporting. Result is a JPEG that should always display properly.

[Omegaraptor]

Could go lower than that.

It did!!!!!!

[Jesse]

Wind has gone calm here. Down to 38 DP 15. Seems like tonight will likely get well down into the 20s.

 

Pulled off a 52/29 day today with wall to wall sunshine.

[Deweydog]

It did!!!!!!

Ur welcome.

[ShawniganLake]

How will Shawnigan Lake’s rank end up in terms of cold October.

I’ll have to do some digging.

[ShawniganLake]

49/27 here today. I think tonight will probably be a couples degrees warmer

[Omegaraptor]

Long range GFS has been looking pretty juicy in some of the recent runs.

[Gradient Keeper]

Okay, which one of you broke the GEM?

[Jesse]

Long range GFS has been looking pretty juicy in some of the recent runs.

 

This is good news. I was just thinking today how this cold and clear weather has been really nice, but I'm starting to miss rain and storms.

[ShawniganLake]

[Omegaraptor]

HIO is now at 31. If the wind speeds stay low it could get pretty cold tonight.

[BLI snowman]

This is good news. I was just thinking today how this cold and clear weather has been really nice, but I'm starting to miss rain and storms.

 

 

Definitely would be good to see a more Pacific influenced pattern emerge sooner as opposed to later. The longer we put it off the more likely we are to see an unfortunate January 1953 style midwinter correction.

[Jesse]

My mom sent me this today. Ice on Multnomah Falls. I can’t ever remember seeing that before Halloween, although I’m guessing it happened in 2002 and 2003.

 

[Deweydog]

What’s everyone dressing up as tomorrow??

[Jesse]

What’s everyone dressing up as tomorrow??

We did a sea captain/mermaid couples theme, for the party on Saturday. But we may put less elaborate versions of the costumes on again tomorrow when we go out with friends. My buddy and his girlfriend are going to be Popeye and Olive Oyl.

[BLI snowman]

What’s everyone dressing up as tomorrow??

 

I just bought a daniel1 costume at Target.

[jakeinthevalley]

What’s everyone dressing up as tomorrow??

I am going as Peter Sinks

[Gradient Keeper]

I just bought a daniel1 costume at Target.

LOL ouch

 

00z ECMWF in 27 minutes. Get ready for a COLD run!

[snow_wizard]

My mom sent me this today. Ice on Multnomah Falls. I can’t ever remember seeing that before Halloween, although I’m guessing it happened in 2002 and 2003.

 

0D52D61B-2E93-4238-BE08-F341391ABC56.png

 

That is utterly amazing to see in October.  What a finish to a great / cold October.  Pretty shocking to hear only 1946 and 1949 were colder for PDX.  Nice company there!

 

Looks like I will end up averaging below 48.0 IMBY.  That's a really cold October for this area.  SEA is going to average below 51.0 which puts them in solidly cold territory.  There have been so many interesting aspects to this month it will take a while to dissect it all.

[Deweydog]

I am going as Peter Sinks

Raunchy!

[snow_wizard]

LOL ouch

 

00z ECMWF in 27 minutes. Get ready for a COLD run!

 

The 0z GFS came so close to delivering cold to WA you have to call the potential event totally up in the air right now.  I like the trend the last couple of days.

[Gradient Keeper]

The 0z GFS came so close to delivering cold to WA you have to call the potential event totally up in the air right now.  I like the trend the last couple of days.

Yeah, it was quite close. If I had to guess I would favor the pattern breaking down ~65-70% chance with the westerlies undercutting leading to a wet pattern for 8-14 days and then a return to blocking afterwards. I place a ~30-35% chance at the block holding with the cold pattern resetting.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Down to 32F.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

What’s everyone dressing up as tomorrow??

 

We are doing Wizard of Oz theme so I get to be a flying monkey.

[Deweydog]

We are doing Wizard of Oz theme so I get to be a flying monkey.

Released in 1939. Analog?????

[Gradient Keeper]

We are doing Wizard of Oz theme so I get to be a flying monkey.

I'd rather be a trunk monkey.... I think. Definitely more violence involved, but in a good way.

 

6z GFS in 3 hours 44 minutes

[Gradient Keeper]

Released in 1939. Analog?????

The real question is, was it a good or bad analog?

 

12z NAM in 8 hours

[Jesse]

Released in 1939. Analog?????

 

Director's cut DVD came out in 2002.

[Gradient Keeper]

Director's cut DVD came out in 2002.

! I just put my snow shovel away now.... I buried it.

[Deweydog]

The real question is, was it a good or bad analog?

 

12z NAM in 8 hours

Low solar.