October 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[ShawniganLake]

And 23F is as cold as we will be getting for a while methinks. Fun little backdoor event. Onto 20-21 XD.

Could be the coldest of this winter season. You never know.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Could be the coldest of this winter season. You never know.

 

That happened here in...well...

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF is way east with the trough next week compared to the 12Z run yesterday... like the 00Z run.

 

Also of note... previous runs showed a drizzly day on Sunday but the 00Z run and now the 12Z run are totally dry that day.

[stuffradio]

Only 4 months until Cherry blossoms!

[TT-SEA]

Only 4 months until Cherry blossoms!

 

That seems like a long time... usually the first cherry blossoms appear in late January or early February.  

 

So maybe 3 months!  

[MossMan]

12Z ECMWF is way east with the trough next week compared to the 12Z run yesterday... like the 00Z run.

 

Also of note... previous runs showed a drizzly day on Sunday but the 00Z run and now the 12Z run are totally dry that day.

When do we see liquid falling from the sky again?

[TT-SEA]

Wow... here we go again.   Blocking might just stay in place longer.

 

 

 

Just a bit different on the 12Z run today...

 

[TT-SEA]

When do we see liquid falling from the sky again?

 

 

Not for the next week at least.

[MossMan]

Not for the next week at least.

Perfect!

[Kayla]

Just a bit different on the 12Z run today...

 

You compared different days but yeah it's still further east with things again and is in line with the GFS.

 

[Gradient Keeper]

Fun 12z runs, said no one ever. The consensus says dry weather continues with temps slowly moderating through the first week of November, and then it seems rather probable we see a pattern change at some point during week two. No signs of any cold weather. Even looking at 12z GEFS for Yakima shows no support for any backdoor cold/arctic air. Based on 12z GFS, GEFS, CMC, ECMWF if I had to guess I would favor the pattern breaking down increasing now at a ~80-85% chance with the westerlies undercutting leading to a wet pattern. I place a very small ~15-20% chance at the block holding with the cold pattern resetting. The 12z ECMWF was drastically different between Day 4-5 and also showed its cut-off bias.

 

18z GFS in 2 hours 24 minutes

[Kayla]

Fun 12z runs, said no one ever. The consensus says dry weather continues with temps slowly moderating through the first week of November, and then it seems rather probable we see a pattern change at some point during week two. No signs of any cold weather. Even looking at 12z GEFS for Yakima shows no support for any backdoor cold/arctic air. Based on 12z GFS, GEFS, CMC, ECMWF if I had to guess I would favor the pattern breaking down increasing now at a ~80-85% chance with the westerlies undercutting leading to a wet pattern. I place a very small ~15-20% chance at the block holding with the cold pattern resetting. The 12z ECMWF was drastically different between Day 4-5 and also showed its cut-off bias.

 

18z GFS in 2 hours 24 minutes

 

All the 12z models don't really show any sort of westerlies undercutting the blocking though. The blocking theme looks to continue on the ensembles and operational models for the foreseeable future just in a not so favorable location for the PNW.

[Gradient Keeper]

All the 12z models don't really show any sort of westerlies undercutting the blocking though. The blocking theme looks to continue on the ensembles and operational models for the foreseeable future just in a not so favorable location for the PNW.

Yeah the operational runs show more of the ridge remaining just offshore or over WA/OR, but the GEFS has been consistent with the pattern breaking down and precip arriving week two.

 

00z ECMWF in 10 hours 35 minutes

[Kayla]

Yeah the operational runs show more of the ridge remaining just offshore or over WA/OR, but the GEFS has been consistent with the pattern breaking down and precip arriving week two.

 

00z ECMWF in 10 hours 35 minutes

 

Keeps getting pushed back though. I'll start to believe it once it gets within 7 days.

[Esquimalt]

The end of the euro looks potentially fun if that weak block doesn’t get undercut

[MossMan]

This was kind of a cool story!

https://komonews.com/news/local/researcher-in-hawaii-finds-message-in-bottle-from-1998-north-bend-kindergartners

[Gradient Keeper]

Keeps getting pushed back though. I'll start to believe it once it gets within 7 days.

That's true. Yeah, always within 7 days, and more so 3-4. The only time we've ever seen model latch onto a pattern change beyond day 5-6 and see total model continuity as well as rock solid run-to-run operational and ensemble consistency was the rare model performance of December 2008 where they did so an astounding 8 days out. Since then we've never seen anything to rival that.

 

18z GFS in 1 hour. The Drunk Uncle awaits.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

This was kind of a cool story!

https://komonews.com/news/local/researcher-in-hawaii-finds-message-in-bottle-from-1998-north-bend-kindergartners

 

Wow

[Guest CulverJosh]

Sitting in the plane. Take off in 15.

 

 

75 for the next 5 days.

[Guest CulverJosh]

737-800 plane. Best plane Boeing ever produced.

[MossMan]

737-800 plane. Best plane Boeing ever produced.

I heard the 737 MAX is supposed to be a good plane...

[TT-SEA]

One of nicest Halloweens that I can remember.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Going to be pleasant trick-or-treating. Good thing college hoops starts soon because the models lately are looking

 

Mark had a graphic the other day showing it has been wet on Halloween in Portland twice since 2006. 

[TT-SEA]

Mark had a graphic the other day showing it has been wet on Halloween in Portland twice since 2006.

We have been dodging rain here for the last several years it seems. And one year it was cold and windy.

[TT-SEA]

I just looked up rainfall data for North Bend since 2009.

 

The only completely dry Halloweens were in 2011 and 2017.    I remember now that we got lucky in 2017 as the rain started right around midnight. 

 

It has rained on 8 of the last 10 Halloweens.   Based on climo... it should be wet on about 6 out of 10.    2015 and 2016 were very wet with 2.93 inches on 10/31/15 and 1.34 inches on 10/31/16.

 

On other hand... we have been lucky in some of the years as there was a break in the rain during the evening.   

 

But this is the nicest Halloween that I can remember.     Probably the next nicest was way back in 2011.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

We have been dodging rain here for the last several years it seems. And one year it was cold and windy.

 

Yeah the rain has been more recent. 

[BLI snowman]

Mark had a graphic the other day showing it has been wet on Halloween in Portland twice since 2006. 

 

 

Holidays have generally been pleasant for a long time. 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

[Front Ranger]

Strange as it is to say with a bunch of lows in the 20-25 range, but almost feels like OLM underperformed with this latest event.

 

That being said, it was always more of an eastside special. And the monthly numbers are very impressive...the average temp will finish second coldest of all-time, just a few tenths of a degree behind 1972.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

This would make January just that much more interesting.

 

Screen Shot 2019-10-31 at 7.45.13 AM.png

Phil mentioned this yesterday. Even if it's just a minor one, getting it that early could only help matters. More Arctic air down into the lower latitudes.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

For what its worth here is Brett Andersons long range interpretation of the models

 

https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/anderson/update-on-potential-long-range-weather-pattern/608571

Can't wait until he starts coloring in the PNW with his dark blue crayon and writes in COLD/SNOW.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

This was kind of a cool story!

https://komonews.com/news/local/researcher-in-hawaii-finds-message-in-bottle-from-1998-north-bend-kindergartners

Amazing. I always love hearing stories of messages inside bottles being washed ashore from many years ago.

[TT-SEA]

Amazing. I always love hearing stories of messages inside bottles being washed ashore from many years ago.

 

 

My kids went to that school.   

[Deweydog]

We’re f*cked.

[BLI snowman]

52/24 today here. Solid!

[Frontal Snowsquall]

[BLI snowman]

Every October that has averaged 53.00 or lower at PDX

 

2019

1985

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1972

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1957

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1949

1946

 

It might snow this winter!

[Gradient Keeper]

Any spooky model runs tonight?

 

00z GFS in 2 hours 45 minutes

[Omegaraptor]

https://www.cnn.com/2019/10/30/us/halloween-weather-reschedule-trnd/index.html

 

https://www.bostonglobe.com/metro/2019/10/31/weather-plays-trick-trick-treaters-and-communities-reschedule-halloween/8rfmWdmIKUNvPpqbLC0DHN/story.html

 

Some places in the northeast are actually rescheduling Halloween trick or treating because of rain.