November 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[El_Nina]

Just give me a jet.

[ChilliwackBCwx]

Wow I couldn't believe I just came across Steve Pool is retiring, growing up in Vancouver here I would alway's tune into Seattle forecasters just because they were more professional then what we had on t.v. up here. I mostly watched Harry Wappler later his son, and Ray Ramsey, KING t.v. a bit but not as much mostly Jeff Renner, I remember when Steve was interning with Ray Ramsay. Man I'm getting old will have to watch his final forecast next week as well as the special on Dec. 1st.  "happy retirement Steve from an avid Canadian watcher".

[MossMan]

No night shift I see...6z must have been bad. Currently 32 and smoky.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

No night shift I see...6z must have been bad. Currently 32 and smoky.

 

It was okay. Nothing special. The 2nd wave of cold air drops a few hundred miles east. Ensembles essentially unchanged. 

[FroYoBro]

PDX just joined the 32 family.

[Gradient Keeper]

6z GFS Ensembles

 

6z GEFS came in colder. In fact, the best ensembles yet. These are really quite chilly and now are back to supporting a significant backdoor cold shot. PDX Mean temp down to -7c and holds at below -5c from November 26th - 30th. We do not reach 0c until December 4th. Seattle mean temp down to -8c. Yakima down to -12c with a large cluster to -14c. 850s for the Columbia Basin remain at -5c or colder through December 3rd. Impressive. This means there is support for modified arctic air to lock in Gorge/east and a prolonged cold spell with a hefty cold pool and strong, icy east wind blasting through the Gorge.

 

What changed overnight? In my analysis yesterday I mentioned how the ridge of high pressure we are watching was over Japan and that models were still trying to initialized how to handle it, where it merges with our offshore ridge, and that exactly where the block sets up along with the degree of tilt/amplification would not be known for another 1-2 days. This morning's 6z GFS/GEFS shows this and sets the block up further a bit east along with a touch more amplification. Thus there is better support for colder air to be pulled down over WA/OR. IF that trend continues we could possibly see models turn even a bit colder than this. We'll see.... C'MON!!!!

 

Portland

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Portland_Oregon_USA_ens.png

 

 

Seattle

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Seattle_USA_ens.png

 

 

Yakima

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Yakima_USA_ens.png

[Gradient Keeper]

No night shift I see...6z must have been bad. Currently 32 and smoky.

Nah. I was exhausted went to sleep before 11:30 PM.

 

12z GFS in 41 minutes

[Farmboy]

I'm happy for Farmboy.

It's just gonna be some 52° - 53° showers down here, nothing really exciting. Refreshing though after the brutal last 2 weeks of September through October period...

[Dave]

28 degrees and crystal clear. This pouring rain is starting to bum me out.

 

Looking forward to the next model runs.

[Gradient Keeper]

6z GEFS The Dalles

Temperatures well below freezing in the Gorge for over a week

 

[High Desert Mat?]

 

6z GFS Ensembles

 

6z GEFS came in colder. In fact, the best ensembles yet. These are really quite chilly and now are back to supporting a significant backdoor cold shot. PDX Mean temp down to -7c and holds at below -5c from November 26th - 30th. We do not reach 0c until December 4th. Seattle mean temp down to -8c. Yakima down to -12c with a large cluster to -14c. 850s for the Columbia Basin remain at -5c or colder through December 3rd. Impressive. This means there is support for modified arctic air to lock in Gorge/east and a prolonged cold spell with a hefty cold pool and strong, icy east wind blasting through the Gorge.

 

What changed overnight? In my analysis yesterday I mentioned how the ridge of high pressure we are watching was over Japan and that models were still trying to initialized how to handle it, where it merges with our offshore ridge, and that exactly where the block sets up along with the degree of tilt/amplification would not be known for another 1-2 days. This morning's 6z GFS/GEFS shows this and sets the block up further a bit east along with a touch more amplification. Thus there is better support for colder air to be pulled down over WA/OR. IF that trend continues we could possibly see models turn even a bit colder than this. We'll see.... C'MON!!!!

 

Portland

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Portland_Oregon_USA_ens.png

 

 

Seattle

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Seattle_USA_ens.png

 

 

Yakima

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Yakima_USA_ens.png

Sure would be nice if that straggler at the end came into fruition. -23C 850’s? Wouldn’t that be a record by far?

[Jesse]

A frosty 29F this morning.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GEFS Teleconnections Indices forecast

-PNA mega tanking and -EPO is projected to flip strongly negative

 

[Gradient Keeper]

Sure would be nice if that straggler at the end came into fruition. -23C 850’s? Wouldn’t that be a record by far?

I could be mistaken, but I think for PDX the record for 850s is -20c during December 1990? Someone feel free to correct me if that is not accurate.

 

12z ECMWF in 2 hours 29 minutes

[MossMan]

Less leaf blower exhaust and more of a start of a hydroplane rooster tail in the extended.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I could be mistaken, but I think for PDX the record for 850s is -20c during December 1990? Someone feel free to correct me if that is not accurate.

 

12z ECMWF in 2 hours 29 minutes

 

-22.1C over Salem. 

[Gradient Keeper]

-22.1C over Salem. 

Was it December 1990?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

27 so far this morning at EUG and SLE.

 

29 up here. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Was it December 1990?

 

Yes

[Gradient Keeper]

12z!

 

12/1

[Gradient Keeper]

Yes

Thanks. WRF maps would have been fun during that!

[Jesse]

11/20

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Another frosty 30˚F morning in north Bellingham.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Ah, 1990, the year I bought my first home. In Shoreline, right in the heart of PSCZ country. I said to myself, "Self, this is a mild climate. You won't need to buy a snow shovel here." Then Dec. 18th happened. I measured 14" in my front lawn.

[TT-SEA]

Ah, 1990, the year I bought my first home. In Shoreline, right in the heart of PSCZ country. I said to myself, "Self, this is a mild climate. You won't need to buy a snow shovel here." Then Dec. 18th happened. I measured 14" in my front lawn.

 

 

At one point here... I think we were getting 14 inches every 3 hours way back in February of 2019.

 

The 1 year anniversary is less than 3 months away now!   Its been so long ago... seems like yesterday.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

It actually shows a little bit of snow for the Puget Sound area. No doubt the surface pressure gradients look utterly perfect for maximizing the cold potential.

Yeah, wouldn't surprise me if we see some deformation band setup somewhere north of where the low tracks as it makes its way inland.

[Gradient Keeper]

12z GFS Day 2 ridge merger beginning

 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Yeah, wouldn't surprise me if we see some deformation band setup somewhere north of where the low tracks as it makes its way inland.

Right around the OR/CA border would be just about right.

[High Desert Mat?]

The low is so far south the deformation band, if there is one, wil probably set up right over me in Redmond Oregon. Lol

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 3

 

[High Desert Mat?]

Looks juicier so far.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 4

 

[Gradient Keeper]

Block a touch stronger the past 4 tuns now.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 5

 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 5 A touch colder than 6z

 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 6

 

[Guest CulverJosh]

Anyone have a 12z precip map for Tuesday?

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Eh, 522 line never gets here. We’ll get ‘em next time.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 7

 

[Guest CulverJosh]

Los Angeles is going to go into a frenzy. 3 days of rain and it wont get out of the 50s. Everyone panic!!