November 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[BLI snowman]

Your math skills are truly dazzling.

 

When in doubt, pout!

[Front Ranger]

So I guess the answer is no. Just going to change the goalposts like usual.

 

How am I changing the goalposts?

 

I'm arguing that Dec 1998 and Nov 2010 both meet the "goalpost" of top tier Arctic events. 

[Guest CulverJosh]

OT and could post in the banter thread but more of you read here.

 

Im watching fox news online and these crazy global warming nutjobs led by Jane Fonda, are in DC crying for climate change as they stand with an umbrella dodging sleet falling from the sky.

[BLI snowman]

I thought I was a Debbie Downer sometimes....

 

Cheer up guys, it looks quite good.

 

12z models suggest it might not be a very long period of any upper level support before we return to a fairly stale pattern. Block is basically getting cut off after a couple days. Colder air than we've seen but not looking like a big splash by any means.

[Front Ranger]

We will be lucky to eclipse the late November 2014 event. 

 

You think? Sure looks like this could end up colder for some places.

[ShawniganLake]

People are getting hung up on small undesirable details a week out that will most likely change several times over the next few days. We’re headed in an interesting period of weather I’m going to focus on the details more in the short term since the details in the long range are anything but set in stone.

Way to stay positive. For some people it’s easier to just take the models at face value rather than trying to spin them positively in order to self soothe. Frosty mornings and 1500ft snow levels, could be worse.

[ShawniganLake]

OT and could post in the banter thread but more of you read here.

 

Im watching fox news online and these crazy global warming nutjobs led by Jane Fonda, are in DC crying for climate change as they stand with an umbrella dodging sleet falling from the sky.

That sleet would have been blowing snow 30 years ago.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I don't want to give all bad news. Word is the EURO weeklies look fantastic for the last two weeks of December. 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Wasn't dry for everyone...

Yeah, the Southern half of the Willamette Valley got hammered. Wish there was more snow further north.

[Front Ranger]

When in doubt, pout!

 

When you don't have a point, ad hominem.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

You think? Sure looks like this could end up colder for some places.

 

Did you see my post above? 

 

I think if there is good clearing lows will be colder most places, but I doubt any of the major airport stations see highs below 40. 

[FroYoBro]

After carefully examining the 12z models I have come to the conclusion that my house will not see any sticking snow this entire winter.

 

My picture has been changed to reflect this truth. 

[Esquimalt]

I don't want to give all bad news. Word is the EURO weeklies look fantastic for the last two weeks of December. 

Pics or it didn't happen

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Dec. 1990 will probably always be my personal gold standard for cold and snow events, because when it happened:

• Fate had me living at about the epicenter of the whole event, and
• I had only recently moved to this area and had no idea it could get so cold and snowy in Seattle.

It was the sort of major heavy snowfall that I thought I had left behind. To make it even more memorable, I had to leave for Christmas break on a flight the morning of the 19th.

[TacomaWaWx]

After carefully examining the 12z models I have come to the conclusion that my house will not see any sticking snow this entire winter.

 

My picture has been changed to reflect this truth.

 

Winter cancel you heard it here 11/22!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Well the ensembles weren't the trainwreck I was expecting from what everyone was posting, but yeah, a step back. 

[Guest CulverJosh]

I will take a little warmer and more moisture for 200 Alex.

[Front Ranger]

Did you see my post above?

 

I think if there is good clearing lows will be colder most places, but I doubt any of the major airport stations see highs below 40.

Ah, yeah probably true. Although I could see EUG or MDF pulling it off with cloud cover.

[Jesse]

Way to stay positive. For some people it’s easier to just take the models at face value rather than trying to spin them positively in order to self soothe. Frosty mornings and 1500ft snow levels, could be worse.

To be fair, I think there are some who have been consistently putting an unreasonably negative spin on things too.

 

His post sounded more level headed than 95% of those.

[BLI snowman]

When you don't have a point, ad hominem.

 

Point has been made pretty obvious here for you, actually. Like...since 2007 obvious!

[Front Ranger]

Point has been made pretty obvious here for you, actually. Like...since 2007 obvious!

 

You failed to answer the question posed: why are Dec 1998 and Nov 2010 not "top tier"?

[Gradient Keeper]

12z ECMWF Day 1

 

[BLI snowman]

You failed to answer the question posed: why are Dec 1998 and Nov 2010 not "top tier"?

 

  One is clearly not a midwinter event and the other is now firmly old school enough to render whatever point you're trying to make moot.

 

That was hard!

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Let's go King EURO! ❄

[SilverFallsAndrew]

  One is clearly not a midwinter event and the other is now firmly old school enough to render whatever point you're trying to make moot.

 

That was hard!

 

If we are merely going with 850mb temps then 1998 was top tier. However, it lacked widespread meaningful snowfall, and the upper level support was pretty fleeting. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 2

 

[TacomaWaWx]

35 and foggy out there. Morning low of 34, 3rd morning in a row in the 30s. Fog is pretty dense still at 10am.

[High Desert Mat?]

Meh.

 

2nd year Niño split flow hell!!!!!!

[TacomaWaWx]

The way things are shaping up this ought to be the driest November I’ve recorded at my house in the last 15 years. Looking forward to some cold days coming up next week. Should be a lot of frosty mornings and beautiful sunrises .

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 2 - Subtle differences. Kamchatka/Eastern Aleutian ridge few notches east-northeast of previous run. Cut-off low south of Aleutians a small notch south. Offshore ridge a notch weaker. Cut-off low under ridge several notches east.

 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 3

 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 3 - Aleutian ridge several notches stronger, bit more amplification. Offshore ridge bit stronger, slightly more tilt. Cut-off low off Baja California several notches further east.

 

[Deweydog]

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 4

 

[TT-SEA]

35 and foggy out there. Morning low of 34, 3rd morning in a row in the 30s. Fog is pretty dense still at 10am.

Inversion looks really strong near the Sound today... might not break at all.

 

Crystal clear out here from the start today...

 

[BLI snowman]

If we are merely going with 850mb temps then 1998 was top tier. However, it lacked widespread meaningful snowfall, and the upper level support was pretty fleeting. 

 

I actually think it was a perfectly sweet little event, 4-5 days of good upper level support and some nice temps with snow on both ends of it here. I don't care whether someone wants to label it regionally top tier or not. My point was that if we still have to go back that far to feel even that comfortable with the label being tossed around, then that's a massive climate middle finger.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Some truly decent low temps this morning. 

 

Sea Tac - 34

PDX - 32

Olympia 29

Vancouver 28

Salem 26

Eugene 26

Medford 26

McMinnville 24

Spokane 24

The Dalles 23

K-Falls 14

Redmond 14

Yakima 14

Burns 8

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I actually think it was a perfectly sweet little event, 4-5 days of good upper level support and some nice temps with snow on both ends of it here. I don't care whether someone wants to label it regionally top tier or not. My point was that if we still have to go back that far to feel even that comfortable with the label being tossed around, then that's a massive climate middle finger.

 

Yeah there were about 4-5 similar or better events in the 1920s alone. 

[Deweydog]

PDX hasn’t had a high lower than 23 degrees in 29 years. This to me is about as relevant as it gets, especially considering highs colder than that are almost always outflow-dependent and not UHI influenced.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 4 - Block bit stronger, more amplification, higher heights over southern Alaska. Cut-off under block a notch to the northeast. Cold-trough a bit more favorable. Cut-off Baja further east.