Niko Posted December 26, 2019 Report Share Posted December 26, 2019 NOAA:Saturday will start off with some sunshine before clouds increaseahead of the next system that will deepen over the Central Plains.Mild southeast flow will keep highs well above average again with 50south to low 40s north. A strong large trough moving into thesouthwest U.S. will lift through the central U.S. while closing off.This will drive a surge of warm and moist air into the area with themain shield of rain to move through Saturday night with the warmfront. Moist mild air will keep lows upper 30s to low 40s.Sunday, the the large powerful system will begin to occlude as itlifts into southern Wisconsin. This will drive a dry slot across thearea leading to very mild temperatures well into the 50s withpossible 60 degrees near the Ohio border along with numerousshowers.As the system becomes stacked it will wobble around thenorthern Great lakes through Tuesday bringing colder air and thechance for rain showers mixing and changing to snow showers duringthe day and continuing into Tuesday. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 26, 2019 Report Share Posted December 26, 2019 This is guaranteed to hit, because I'm leaving for Colorado on the night of the 2nd. Euro continues to show a system a week out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 26, 2019 Report Share Posted December 26, 2019 How about this.....from the 18zGFS Would anyone travel to Cape Cod on the EC to experience this....wow!!!! 5 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 26, 2019 Report Share Posted December 26, 2019 Clinton, how does the EPS look in Week 2? Is it showing the cold coming around Jan 4th/5th?? I think the pattern post the early Jan storm is going to feature a dominant N stream with volatile periods of transitioning cold in between storm systems. This is the part of the LRC which produced a NW Flow regime for about a couple weeks.Yes- good shot of Arctic air (especially this year) around the 4th and 5th. It shows it arriving with a rather strong clipper type storm. Then it does look volatile though no big systems are shown but it does look like something could easily pop. 2 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 26, 2019 Report Share Posted December 26, 2019 Written a week ago. Need more sustained cold to have any chance S of LAT 43-- from a classic cutter 150 miles NW of the LOW for heaviest snowfall - minus wrap around BS. Congrats on the nice call from a week out. (so sad that you were correct tho ) Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 26, 2019 Report Share Posted December 26, 2019 Yes- good shot of Arctic air (especially this year) around the 4th and 5th. It shows it arriving with a rather strong clipper type storm. Then it does look volatile though no big systems are shown but it does look like something could easily pop. Keep up the positive vibes buddy! Things don't tend to pop in a NW flow, at least not major things. Nonetheless, with some colder air we have a better shot at seeing flakes flying. As for this season, I'm really thinking your original intuition is going to verify: pre-mature snow in autumn = dud winter. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 26, 2019 Report Share Posted December 26, 2019 Attm, 47F under mostly cloudy skies. Feels great out there. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 26, 2019 Report Share Posted December 26, 2019 GFS still has a sheared out mess for the Jan 2nd-3rd system. Hoping the Euro is on to something. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 26, 2019 Report Share Posted December 26, 2019 https://weatherstreet.com/weather-forecast/michigan-snow-cover.htm 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 26, 2019 Report Share Posted December 26, 2019 GFS still has a sheared out mess for the Jan 2nd-3rd system. Hoping the Euro is on to something. I noticed that all the models that spin-up a secondary around the Lakes have done away with any storm in that timeframe. Seems it'll be one or the other, not both fwiw. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianJK Posted December 26, 2019 Report Share Posted December 26, 2019 might make a run at 60 next week. Very mild air takes hold. As usual, Skilling and his team over hype the warm up in the forecast. I don't see us getting close to 60F next Monday...maybe low 50's which will feel balmy after this cold spell. Forgot what it feels like to wake up in the 10's that past couple nights....Brrr...short-lived cold spell though, Winter is going on a hiatus for the time being. Tom buddy, you are an awesome contributor and provide a ton of insight and a wealth of information. But I think tunnel vision and a biased towards cold/snow may be holding you back. It seems at times you are too quick to dismiss the signals that go against cold/snow, and other times over stretch to find signals or reasoning to support cold/snow. I think if you can overcome that, you could rise to a whole new level. Regardless, you are still top notch and I have learned a ton from you over the years - so thank you for that. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted December 26, 2019 Report Share Posted December 26, 2019 I have recorded 60° Woah Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 26, 2019 Report Share Posted December 26, 2019 I have recorded 60° Woah There's always the d15 big dog.. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 26, 2019 Report Share Posted December 26, 2019 Tom buddy, you are an awesome contributor and provide a ton of insight and a wealth of information. But I think tunnel vision and a biased towards cold/snow may be holding you back. It seems at times you are too quick to dismiss the signals that go against cold/snow, and other times over stretch to find signals or reasoning to support cold/snow. I think if you can overcome that, you could rise to a whole new level. Regardless, you are still top notch and I have learned a ton from you over the years - so thank you for that.I appreciate the constructive criticism Brian. Believe me, I take it with the utmost respect. As for Skilling calling for 60's, that comment was for this past Monday which obviously didn't happen. In terms of the prolong warmth, that's a whole other story and I began seeing the bust right around the Solstice period when the models started flashing the torch. In all honesty, I did not see it coming one bit. I learned a lesson on this one, a big one, and I leaned to much on the GEFS Strat forecast which completely failed on the major warming event early in the month. The PV strengthened back up and the rest is history....Big Bust on the second half rally I expected on seeing transpire. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted December 26, 2019 Report Share Posted December 26, 2019 It is now up to 60 here at my house and sunny. It looks more like late March or early April then late December. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 26, 2019 Report Share Posted December 26, 2019 Was just out doing some errands and it feels so nice. Temp at 48F. Heading into the 50s. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SE Wisconsin Posted December 26, 2019 Report Share Posted December 26, 2019 There's always the d15 big dog.. 20191226 12z gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_h384.pngIt's on the day 15 GFS so it's a done deal! I wish! At least it's pointing to a glimmer of hope on the long range. I guess that's about all we can hope for at this point. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 26, 2019 Report Share Posted December 26, 2019 Haven’t been below 32 here in quite some time and don’t expect to be anytime soon.This kinda reminds me of the Winter 2012. I know we still got more to go and it might turn around, but it has same similarities. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 26, 2019 Report Share Posted December 26, 2019 18z iconNice rainstorm for my area. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 26, 2019 Report Share Posted December 26, 2019 There's always the d15 big dog.. 20191226 12z gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_h384.pngthe hard eight dice roll for this in craps would be like 8 in row. Hit the Craps hard with "hard eights" -- try for one in a row- system above is NOT happening. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted December 26, 2019 Report Share Posted December 26, 2019 The early January system is crappier on the new Euro run. It's a rain system that shears out as it heads into the northeast US. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 26, 2019 Report Share Posted December 26, 2019 The early January system is crappier on the new Euro run. It's a rain system that shears out as it heads into the northeast US.Exactly! Half of January looks wasted already. Geez, I hope that changes. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted December 26, 2019 Report Share Posted December 26, 2019 This kinda reminds me of the Winter 2012. I know we still got more to go and it might turn around, but it has same similarities.I was thinking more like 1982/83 or 1933/34 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 26, 2019 Report Share Posted December 26, 2019 Attm, a balmy 54F under mostly to partly cloudy skies. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted December 26, 2019 Report Share Posted December 26, 2019 It is now officially reached 60 at GRR. Here at my house I am now at 63 and the sun is out. I went for a walk and there are dandelions out in bloom. In my yard there is a crocus while not in bloom one is popping out of the ground. I will keep a eye on it as if it blooms I will post in on Saturday. Also I seen a couple of flies out on my walk. This is one warm end to this December. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 26, 2019 Report Share Posted December 26, 2019 I was thinking more like 1982/83 or 1933/34 Yep...I can barely remember 82, but I can recall being a truly warm Christmas back in the big Apple. If I am not mistaken, it was in the 70s on Christmas Day that year. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted December 26, 2019 Report Share Posted December 26, 2019 Just in regards to my back yard, not looking to get any measurable snow will most likely place this month onto the list of snowless December's top 5 at least. First 10-15 days of January not looking good either except if you like looking at long range that usually does not come to fruition. I am grateful for this warm weather as cold and no snow is worthless in my opinion. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 26, 2019 Report Share Posted December 26, 2019 if the rainfall happens- DEC 2015 looks like a near repeat. ( here in DSM) + 10F for temps? Who would have thunk? ) just a few weeks ago) All this talk of a cold/snowy DEC I digress. Models mean nothing- teleconnections mean everything and the MJO-AO in in both these "blowtorch" years mean everything. Nothing against people like Tom and Clinton (and the likes of JB) but PP has done better in these patterens over the years-- just sayin/ Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 26, 2019 Report Share Posted December 26, 2019 if the rainfall happens- DEC 2015 looks like a near repeat. ( here in DSM) + 10F for temps? Who would have thunk? ) just a few weeks ago) All this talk of a cold/snowy DEC I digress. Models mean nothing- teleconnections mean everything and the MJO-AO in in both these "blowtorch" years mean everything. Nothing against people like Tom and Clinton (and the likes of JB) but PP has done better in these patterens over the years-- just sayin/I certainly agree with you. We rely on the models way to much to analyze and digest information. The decline in the +IOD really has thrown a wrench in the LR forecast resulting in unfavorable MJO phases. That’s prob one of the biggest busts in the seasonal models TBH. It’s effects are crucial globally and part of the reason why this month failed to bring the cold. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MIKEKC Posted December 26, 2019 Report Share Posted December 26, 2019 Hope everyone had a nice Christmas. Yep, Tom, this was a strikeout for December, but you are 2-3 since late August on long range forecasts. A few big home runs. You were the first to call for a cold fall for most. You were also the first to call for early snows, boy, were they early as KC had two snows in Oct. So, 2-3 with two big home runs, I’ll take that when it comes to weather forecasting. December sucked for most, no doubt, but it sucked last year too and then mid Jan. to mid March came and we had a winter party. So, let’s hope that will come again. GFS hinting at a much colder pattern possibly around Jan. 7th time frame. Let’s see what the trends hold as we close out 2019. I’m sure Tom will keep us posted on any trends towards a wintry pattern. Good luck to all the snow lovers with this weekend’s storm. Here in KC, looks wet and mild with this storm. We could use the moisture. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andie Posted December 26, 2019 Report Share Posted December 26, 2019 70* and Overcast. Possible light rain tomorrow, but Saturday will bring showers and some thunderstorms. Monday we'll finally see the mid 50's. So,....where's Winter? 1 Quote Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes. “If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.” Gen. Sheridan 1866 2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted December 26, 2019 Report Share Posted December 26, 2019 I'll likely end December with 1.9" of snow. Last year I received 0.7" of snow in December. The big flip began on January 12th (4.8" that day, then another 4" a few days later and another 4" a few days later). Current models don't see that far out. I'm pretty sure models back in early January sniffed out the upcoming snowy pattern well before it began. 3 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 26, 2019 Report Share Posted December 26, 2019 Just came back from the gym and man it feels like Spring out there. No kiddin People were out jogging, walking, biking and etc..... Btw, Detroit broke the record high today of 58F. Old record was 57F set back in 2016. 2 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 26, 2019 Report Share Posted December 26, 2019 70* and Overcast. Possible light rain tomorrow, but Saturday will bring showers and some thunderstorms.Monday we'll finally see the mid 50's. So,....where's Winter?Who knows. Decided to go on a hiatus. Tbh, I am actually enjoying this weather. Eventually the snow and cold will come. 3 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 26, 2019 Report Share Posted December 26, 2019 Lows tanite will be in the mid 40s. Keep in mind, the normal high is 33F. So, you can see how wicked this pattern is. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 26, 2019 Report Share Posted December 26, 2019 At Niko Yep, more motorcycles out today than you see in late March. Had an ant crawling at face level on my garage door frame. Didn't see too many winged bugs (which I'm fine with), but it wouldn't surprise me to find tulips popping in my garden like Jan of '12 either. This map really shows the bi-polar-coaster temp regime we seem to be stuck with during this warm globe/low solar era. Sharp contrasts anyone? 3 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 26, 2019 Report Share Posted December 26, 2019 I'll likely end December with 1.9" of snow. Last year I received 0.7" of snow in December. The big flip began on January 12th (4.8" that day, then another 4" a few days later and another 4" a few days later). Current models don't see that far out. I'm pretty sure models back in early January sniffed out the upcoming snowy pattern well before it began. Seems the models, like wayward teens, are always sniffing something! Mostly the LR models seem exceptionally vulnerable to showing massive amounts of snow that never comes to fruition. Remember the LR CFS that had monster snows right thru the heart of our Sub? Example of a Euro map for Jan 9th that never happened. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 27, 2019 Report Share Posted December 27, 2019 Despite this holiday week torching, I'm actually happy I got what I did in December. Huge improvement over last year, and the recent snow actually stuck around nicely and made the run-up to Christmas much more festive. 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 27, 2019 Report Share Posted December 27, 2019 I have recorded 60° Woah KRMY touched 60F later on too. Alright, can we get back to winter now? Even my daughter (who likes it warm) commented how "just not right" these past 2 days have been. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 27, 2019 Report Share Posted December 27, 2019 At Niko Yep, more motorcycles out today than you see in late March. Had an ant crawling at face level on my garage door frame. Didn't see too many winged bugs (which I'm fine with), but it wouldn't surprise me to find tulips popping in my garden like Jan of '12 either. This map really shows the bi-polar-coaster temp regime we seem to be stuck with during this warm globe/low solar era. Sharp contrasts anyone? 20191226 US Temps.GIFCrazy stuff man, I tell ya! 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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